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Sunday Political Brunch: Why is South Carolina Such a Pivotal State—November 19, 2017

Sunday, November 19, 2017

 

Mark Curtis

We were on the road again this week to attend an Army graduation in South Carolina. I got to tour one of the nation’s largest military bases, as well as a visit to the State Capitol in Columbia. It made me reflect on how critical this state has become to presidential politics. I like to profile different states and issues while on the road. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

“Palmetto State’s Primary Colors” – With all the quadrennial media hub-bub about the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary, the third contest often gets short-shrift. But South Carolina - usually the third contest – is often a significant turning point. For example, in 2016, a distant fourth-place finish spelled the end for the man many thought would be the frontrunner, former Gov. Jeb Bush (R) Florida. And that fact that it was Donald Trump’s second straight win after a second-place showing in Iowa, meant he was a legitimate candidate to be reckoned with.

“The Race About Race” – South Carolina has been a significant turning point in several other Presidential elections, too. In 2008 Sen. Barack Obama (D) Illinois won in the Palmetto State primary with 55 percent of the vote. In doing so, he defeated Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) New York - the spouse of former President Bill Clinton - a Southerner. And Obama also defeated neighboring Sen. John Edwards, (D) North Carolina. In a state and region that had seen plenty of racial strife, it was a big turning point in the campaign when a black candidate won. Iowa and New Hampshire were interesting, but South Carolina was the first time in covering any campaign that I said an African-American had a very good chance at winning the White House.

“The Future” – As I have said several times in this column in the past year, we are still be on the verge of electing our first woman president. On my drive through South Carolina, I heard network radio reports from the United Nations, where U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley was chastising the Russian government in a U.N. speech. She’s created a lot of headlines being one of the point-persons in the ongoing nuclear tensions with North Korea, and has been speaking forcefully against its dictator Kim Jong-un. Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina – like President Obama – has shown the Palmetto State is willing to choose diverse leadership. She remains on my short list of potential future Presidents.

“Strom Thurmond” – One of the longest roads through Fort Jackson is Strom Thurmond Boulevard. It is named after long-time Sen. Strom Thurmond (R) South Carolina, who served 48-years in the U.S. Senate, and died in office at the age of 100. Yes, Thurmond was a controversial figure over the years, especially on issues of race relations, but he evolved and changed his views over his long career. I got to know him quite well as a reporter covering Carolina issues at the U.S. Capitol in the 1990s. I laughed because he always called me, “Sonny!” He was a master at constituent service, and “bringing home the bacon” to his state, not the least of which is the huge military infrastructure that remains intact. He was a significant, and fascinating political figure, regardless of anyone’s personal feelings about him.

“Yesterday and Today” – For all the racial tension and division that has characterized South Carolina politics for decades, things have decidedly changed. In 2010 the state elected an Indian-America female named Nikki Haley, to the Governor’s Mansion. In 2013 when Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) resigned his seat, Haley appointed Rep. Tom Scott (R-SC), to the vacant U.S. Senate seat. Scott is African-American. He then won a special election for the remainder of the Senate term in 2014, and won a full, six-year Senate term in 2016. In both 2014 and 2016, Scott faced an African-American opponent from the Democratic party. In U.S. history there have been only three Senate races where both major party candidates were black. The bottom line, if you don’t think South Carolina – and the nation have changed -- just look at what’s happened here politically since 2008.

“Victory Starts Here; Right Here!” – I’ve attended countless military events in forty years as a reporter. Though I never served, I have a deep, abiding respect for the service of others including my dad, uncle, grandfather, father-in-law, and countless friends. But this event was special. We watched our daughter, SPC. Alexandra Curtis graduate from BCT (Basic Combat Training), commonly known as boot camp. It was an emotional two days, with lots of smiles and tears. The graduating class included 1,125 brave warriors, ranging in age from 17 to 38, from all walks of life. I have never been so proud as a dad – and as an American – to witness the collective talent that walked on Hilton Field. The United States in in good hands. The post’s motto is: “Forty Rounds; No Ground to Give; Victory Starts Here; Right Here!” Amen!

Is there a special military person, past, or present, you’d like to salute this Thanksgiving week? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, and the bordering states of Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, D.C.

 

Related Slideshow: GoLocal: Benchmark Poll, October 2017

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Sponsor: GoLocalProv

Sample: N=403

Rhode Island General Election Voters Margin of Error: +/- 4.9% at 95% Confidence Level

Interviewing Period: October 9-11, 2017

Mode: Landline (61%) and Mobile (39%)

Telephone Directed by: John Della Volpe, SocialSphere, Inc.

Prev Next

Are you registered to vote at this address?

Yes: 100%

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When it comes to voting, do you consider yourself to be affiliated with the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Moderate, or Unaffiliated with a major party?

Unaffiliated: 49%

Democrat: 32%

Republican: 15%

Moderate: .4%

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Next year, in November of 2018, there will be a statewide general election for Governor and many other state offices. How likely is it that you will vote in this election?

Will you definitely be voting, will you probably be voting, are you 50-50...

Definitely be voting: 78%

Probably be voting: 13%

50-50: 9%

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In general, would you say things in Rhode Island are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?

Right track: 39%

Wrong track: 45%

Mixed: 10%

Don't know/Refused: .6%

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What would you say is the number one problem facing Rhode Island that you would like the Governor to address?

Jobs and economy:  21%

Education: 12%

Taxes: 12%

Roads: 12%

State budget: 9%

Corruption/Public integrity: .8%

Healthcare: 3%

Governor: 3%

Homelessness: 2%

Immigration: 2%

Other: 7%

Don’t know: .9%

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Over the past three years or so, would you say the economy in Rhode Island has improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?

Changed for the better: 35%

Changed for the worse: 16%

Not changed at all: 43%

Don't know/Refused: 5%

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Over the same time, has your family's financial situation improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?

Changed for the better: 26%

Changed for the worse: 19%

Not changed at all: 54%

Don't know/Refused: 1%

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Recently, a proposal has been made to permit the issuance of $81 million in bonds by the State to build a new stadium for the Pawtucket Red Sox. If there was an election today on this issue, would you vote to approve or reject issuing $81 million in financing supported moral obligation bonds to build the stadium?

Net: Approve: 28%

Definitely approve: 15%

Probably approve: 14%

Net: Reject: 67%

Probably reject: 19%

Definitely reject: 48%

Don't know: 4%

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Could you please tell me your age?

18-24: 7%

25-34: 15%

35-44: 15%

45-54: 20%

55-64: 17%

65+: 25%

Don't know/refused: 1%

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What was the last grade you completed in school?

0-11: 2%

High school grad: 16%

Technical/Vocational school: 1%

Some college: 23%

College grad: 34%

Graduate degree: 24%

Don't know/refused: 1%

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The next question is about the total income of YOUR HOUSEHOLD for the PAST 12 MONTHS. Please include your income PLUS the income of all members living in your household (including cohabiting partners and armed forces members living at home).

$50,000 or less: 27%

More $50,000 but less than $75,000: 13%

More $75,000 but less than $100,000: 13%

More $100,000 but less than $150,000: 17%

$150,000 or more: 13%

Don't know/refused: 17%

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What particular ethnic group or nationality - such as English, French, Italian, Irish, Latino, Jewish, African American, and so forth - do you consider yourself a part of or feel closest to?

American/None: 21%

English: 13%

Italian: 13%

Irish: 12%

Black or African American: 6%

Latino/Hispanic: 6%

French: 6%

Portuguese: 3%

Jewish: 3%

German: 1%

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Would you say that Donald Trump has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as President?


Excellent: 13%
Good: 12%
Fair: 14%
Poor: 57%
Never heard of:  0%
Cannot rate: 3%

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Would you say that Jack Reed has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a United States Senator?

Excellent: 22%
Good: 29%
Fair: 23%
Poor: 15%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate: 6%

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Would you say that Sheldon Whitehouse has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a United States Senator?

Excellent: 17%
Good: 22%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 28%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate: 7%

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Would you say that David Cicilline has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a Member of Congress?

Excellent: 9%
Good: 29%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 27%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate:  8%

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Would you say that James Langevin has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a Member of Congress?

Excellent: 7%
Good: 30%
Fair: 20%
Poor: 18%
Never heard of: 13%
Cannot rate: 11%

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Would you say that Gina Raimondo has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Governor?

Excellent: 6%
Good: 28%
Fair: 30%
Poor: 31%
Never heard of: 1%
Cannot rate: 3%

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Would you say that Daniel McKee has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Lieutenant Governor?


Excellent: 3%
Good: 16%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 8%
Never heard of: 26%
Cannot rate: 25%

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Would you say that Peter Kilmartin has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Attorney General?


Excellent: 3%
Good: 20%
Fair: 28%
Poor: 17%
Never heard of: 13%
Cannot rate: 19%

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Would you say that Seth Magaziner has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as General Treasurer?

Excellent: 4%
Good: 18%
Fair: 24%
Poor: 13%
Never heard of: 21%
Cannot rate: 21%

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Would you say that Nellie Gorbea has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Secretary of State?

Excellent: 5%
Good: 21%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 10%
Never heard of: 20%
Cannot rate: 23%

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Would you say that Jorge Elorza has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Mayor of Providence?

Excellent: 4%
Good: 24%
Fair: 24%
Poor: 22%
Never heard of: 9%
Cannot rate: 15%

 
 

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