Santurri: Will The Democratic Race for Providence Mayor Become Primarily Negative?
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
With the Democratic primary for mayor of Providence only six weeks away, the race between Michael Solomon, Jorge Elorza, and Brett Smiley is heating up. Now that Lorne Adrian has dropped out, the path to victory for the Democratic nominee is all the more promising, since the putative front runner, Vincent A. Cianci, now will not benefit from a four-way field in the general election in November.
From polling data shared with me from various camps, Cianci has support between 32 and 40 percent, depending on margin of error and truthfulness of person sharing the poll. In a four-way race, and even in a three way race where the GOP candidate has a pulse, those kind of numbers in most circumstances would be incredibly encouraging fourteen weeks out. All that candidate would need to do is augment his base by ten percent or so to be golden.
However, Cianci isn't the typical candidate. It's not like he's an unknown, with Buddy's name recognition somewhere in the mid-90s, and I can't imagine a large group of voters agnostic on Buddy Cianci. I also know that there is a large percentage of Providence voters who won't vote for Cianci under any circumstances. Buddy, who is wisely lying low while amassing campaign ammunition, can win this race a couple of ways. The first is by convincing those not in the pro or anti-Buddy camp that he's the only real choice. The second is by tearing down the Democratic nominee, which can be done in a number of ways, including defining him through negative ads, dividing the party (after what might be a brutal primary), and outclassing the nominee in the debates and ground campaign. If I'm the Democrats, I'd want all the negatives to come out before the primary, so Cianci's fodder isn't so fresh. The most important element needed in making news is the first three letters. If charges leveled in the general election are new, they will get a lot of play. If they're just leftovers merely reheated by Cianci, they won't.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTSo the three Democrats have a choice to make. Do they play nice with each other, or do they duke it out, with the danger of permanently bruised feelings, resulting in a fractured Democratic party that hands the election to the former mayor? The race has been getting a bit contentious lately, with Smiley dismissing the plans of Elorza and Solomon as too expensive and unrealistic, and criticizing both for not immediately repudiating Cianci when Buddy announced. Smiley has wisely positioned himself as The Man With A Plan, and after a dozen years of well-meaning but organization-challenged mayors, Providence voters want a leader who can both put forward solid plans and execute them. Smiley has the most to lose by going heavily negative. As the Democratic nominee he will have to make some inroads in the both Old Providence and Latino voting bases in November. Bruise too many feelings by attacking Solomon and Elorza, and enough of those votes go Cianci's way to make victory unlikely.
Smiley's Toughening Up.
Brett Smiley is an intelligent, affable young guy with a studious demeanor. In rough and tumble city politics, that's not a description of the archetypal mayor. Smiley knew early on that he had to display toughness whenever possible, and that's what he did when he came out swinging at Cianci as soon as Buddy made it official. Smiley didn't have to win that skirmish to succeed. By merely toeing up to Cianci and taking a few swings, Brett accomplished his objective. For those unaware, before becoming a candidate, Smiley was a profession campaign strategist. Defining your opponent (aka negative campaigning) works, and I expect Smiley to continue to lash out at his opponents and show strength whenever he has the opportunity. Smiley can't win the primary without prying some votes away from Solomon in Old Providence areas, so cutting down Solomon makes sense. In his battle with Elorza for progressive votes, all Smiley has to do is out-left Elorza, no attacking necessary. With his goofy bullet tax (which has a zero chance at becoming state law), Smiley is well on his way.
If he doesn't define his opponent, aka “attack” them, he's probably not going to advance from the primary. It's a tightrope, and Smiley has enough campaign experience as a strategist to walk it. The smart move is to really go after Solomon and play nice with Elorza, figuring that Solomon and Cianci share the same base, so Smiley risks less by alienating those voters than he does by alienating Latino voters by going hard at Elorza. Solomon is probably the front runner for the Democratic nod, which is another reason to try to chip away at him.
Of course, sitting back and letting the media do the attacking is a preferable strategy. The Solomon campaign took some heavy flack last week as Jim Hummel revisited the story he broke last year about Solomon's shameful loan payment history with the city of Providence. Another area where Solomon is vulnerable is his history of voting for tax increases. If he's successfully painted as a tax raiser, Solomon would be in deep trouble.
There are a number of new polls in the field right now. As recent polling data comes in, and Solomon is showing strength, it's going to be mighty tempting for both Smiley and Elorza to use the deadbeat loan to attack/define Solomon If they do, and the story hits more of the mainstream local media than the excellent Hummel Report, Solomon would be wise to respond with full disclosure of the loan and his rationale for his shoddy payment history. If not, this one issue could scuttle his entire campaign, if not in the primary, certainly in the general election, in the hands of master campaigner Cianci.
Solomon's Play It Safe Campaign Strategy
Solomon has been taking a very safe, traditional approach to his campaign so far, acquiring loads of endorsements from council people and unions. He has not heavily addressed his opponents, which is wise, since his name recognition, although not that great, eclipses his two challengers. His main hook, that he was right next to Mayor Taveras when they “saved” the city from fiscal calamity in 2011, may fall flat with an electorate that feels the city is still on calamitous fiscal footing. It doesn't help that Gina Raimondo has a big ad buy out there chopping down Taveras' record in Providence. If Solomon is too tethered to Taveras, and Raimondo manages to chop at Angel enough to weaken the voter's opinion of his Providence-saving, it's going to blunt Solomon's main message that he as a co-pilot saved a city that voters feel isn't saved.
Solomon may have to get negative if he feels his campaign is losing traction. The easiest way to attack Elorza and Smiley is to harp on their lack of experience. It really doesn't make sense to spend too much of his campaign funds to do a big ad buy with the name of either candidate in the ad. The better strategy would be to spend a few bucks on a couple of negative ads that jibe at them and just run them a few times, to generate news coverage. The free media coverage will more than pay for the cost of making the ads, and will force the opponents, with more limited resources, to respond.
Elorza's Quandary
So far, Elroza has carved out the high ground in this election. While noble, it's not a good idea when among the least known and least well-funded candidate. He's already declared that he's against “negative campaigning” and he is positioning himself as a unifier. In order to expand on his base of the Latino vote, Elorza has got to knock heads with Smiley over a few key voting blocs. Jorge has enough left wing bona fides to make inroads in the East Side, and with progressives on the West Side. Both Brettt and Jorge have to go into Old Providence areas like Elmhurst and Mt. Pleasant and capture some anti-Solomon votes. Smiley has made nice gets recently, snaring endorsements by Councilman Michael Correia and Rep. Ray Hull, two very traditional Democrats that will never be confused as progressives.
There's not a big downside to Elorza going negative on either opponent. If Jorge prevails, and Old Providence Solomon voters with bruised feelings are going to vote for Cianci regardless. Elorza must win a decent amount of East Side votes to win the primary, and would be wise to define Smiley as an insider. Voters again paying for water rate increases aren't going do cartwheels over Smiley's former position as chair of Providence Water, so there might be some fodder there. Lobbyists aren't very popular, and Smiley's role as a paid Providence lobbyist at the State House under Taveras isn't a great line on his resume. There's also Smiley's firm's million dollar mismanagement of a campaign reporting requirement for a candidate client. Overall, it’s not as juicy as a candidate stiffing a city on a loan for a half million bucks, but still something to weaken your opponent.
One thing Elorza needs desperately is to increase his name recognition, and the best way to get free media coverage is by slamming the other guy. Jorge may have to go after his opponents, despite his personal distaste for that type of politics. If a candidate isn't willing to get rough to get elected, how will that person fare as mayor, when you have people with divergent interests coming at you at a regular basis?
In political campaigns, the inverse of that old song is valid. When defining opponents, winning candidates need to accentuate the negative and eliminate the positive. Each of the three Democratic candidates face this challenge, while knowing your biggest political target on and before September 9th must become your vanquished friend on September 10th. If you as a candidate can do that successfully, you probably have the goods to tangle with council members and union heads as mayor.
Ric Santurri is a Providence real estate investor and broker. A graduate of the URI School of Journalism, he has been involved in RI politics for over three decades. The past few years, Ric has been keenly focused on Providence, mainly budget and tax policy, politics and elections, and quality of life issues. Feel free to send comments, tips, and info to [email protected]
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