Russell Moore: Democrats Will See Past Chafee’s Cynicism
Monday, June 03, 2013
Will Lincoln Chafee's move to the party of Barack Obama and Joe Biden ruin other RI Democrats' run at the Governor's office?
What’s less clear to me is how the move affects Rhode Island’s political landscape.
Most of the Rhode Island political pundit class speculated that highly regarded Providence Mayor Angel Taveras would likely back out of the Governor’s race and either run for reelection, or seek the Lieutenant Governor’s office. That, they posited, would clear the way for Chafee to appeal to progressive voters and the public sector union vote—two major voting blocs in a Democratic Primary—allowing him to eek victory out of the jaws of defeat.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTNaturally, I disagree. A deeper, more thorough analysis indicates that Chafee’s move does little to affect the political ambitions of General Treasurer Gina Raimondo or Taveras, two highly qualified, razor-sharp individuals.
Cabinet play?
First of all, this move may not affect the gubernatorial primary next year in the least bit, as this move could be nothing but a way to set him up for a cabinet appointment in the Obama administration or an ambassadorship. The switch to Democrat may very well help him sail through the Senate confirmation process before next year’s campaign season heats up.
If that’s not the case however, I don’t think this will create a cakewalk scenario for Chafee by any stretch of the imagination.
Ambition is not known for its patience, and the Providence Mayor and General Treasurer are nothing if not ambitious. Both Raimondo and Taveras will see Chafee’s switch as an acknowledgement of weakness, not strength, and will be all the more likely to strike the hot iron. Make no mistake about it: these political heavyweights aren't likely to back down.
Let’s look at data for a second. According to the most recent Brown University poll, taken a few short months ago, Rhode Island voters give the Governor a favorability rating of just 26 percent. Meanwhile, the highest approval rating in the state went to Taveras, with a whopping 64 percent. And Treasurer Raimondo earned a respectable 54 percent approval rating.
Reality check for Chafee
So, let’s get this straight. We’re supposed to believe that the most popular politician in Rhode Island is going to step aside because the widely disliked, politically schizophrenic Governor has decided that he’s now a Democrat? That may make sense to Chafee’s allies in the press and pundit class, but I’m not buying that.
First of all, Chafee finding his way back to the good graces of organized labor will be no easy task. Granted, NEA-RI Executive Director Robert Walsh seems to have blinders on with respect to Chafee. Walsh doesn't seem inclined to give up on Chafee regardless of the facts that Chafee supported pension reform by legislative decree or that he backs Education Commissioner Deborah Gist. But rank and file teachers, and all other state workers, still have a bad taste in their mouth and less money in their pockets thanks to pension reform. I could be wrong, but I don’t see labor in any big hurry to support the Governor again.
Taveras, on the other hand, took a more worker-friendly approach to pension reform—preferring to sit down and work out a deal. To my mind, that gives him an edge with that crucial voting bloc.
While it’s true that Taveras doesn’t have access to the amount of cash that Raimondo and Chafee have, keep in mind that while money is important to stay competitive, candidates with smaller war chests win elections frequently. Remember that in 2010, Taveras spent less money than both his rivals, half of what Steven Costantino spent actually, and still coasted to victory.
Those factors in mind, it makes little to no sense that Taveras would quit the race for Governor when he has the edge with labor and Latino voters while giving no ground Chafee on the progressive front. Tavares is a force to be reckoned with.
And while Raimondo has irked organized labor with pension reform, she has proven herself to be a true progressive, fighting for causes like marriage equality as well as fighting to increase compensation in the Crime Victim’s Fund. I have trouble seeing women voters, a major voting bloc in the Democrat primaries, turning their backs on a fellow female with Raimondo’s qualifications (Rhodes Scholar, Harvard and Yale grad) and progressive credentials. It’s pretty easy to argue that the time is well past due for Rhode Island to have a woman in its governmental front office. Also, let’s not forget that pension reform is widely popular among Rhode Islanders.
Not much has changed
All that being said, Governor Chafee is, if nothing else, a very cold, calculating, rational political mind who knows how to count votes better than most politicians. H. L. Mencken once famously said, “no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public," and Chafee seems to be a firm believer in the statement. American politics is often compared to a game, and in that respect, Chafee may have put himself in the best position to win—even if his chances are only improved slightly.
It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that his switch to Democrat boosts his favorability numbers, and President Obama’s kind words buoy him to victory in the primary.
In the end, if Chafee’s move does somehow—and I have trouble seeing how—result in a primary victory, the major beneficiary would likely be Cranston Mayor Allan Fung. Go ask Myrth York about Pyrrhic primary victories. If he is able to assemble the coalition he needs to claw out a primary victory that group will not be enough come the general election.
It’s not hard to envision Allan Fung, the popular, moderate Republican Mayor of Cranston, seizing the day in the general election after the Democratic Primary fight.
But Democrat voters should know better by now, and if they do, they won’t be fooled by Chafee’s latest opportunistic scheme to remain in power.
A native Rhode Islander, Russell J. Moore is a graduate of Providence College and St. Raphael Academy. He worked as a news reporter for 7 years (2004-2010), 5 of which with The Warwick Beacon, focusing on government. He continues to keep a close eye on the inner workings of Rhode Islands state and local governments.
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