Russell Moore: Buddy Still Favorite in Mayoral Bid
Monday, September 15, 2014
In the aftermath of Jorge Elorza's dramatic upset victory over City Council President Michael Solomon in the Democratic Primary, the conventional wisdom is that Vincent "Buddy" Cianci, the iconic former mayor, is in deep trouble in his bid to retake City Hall.
The thinking goes something like this: Elorza's popularity on the East Side, coupled with the fact that he's a new, fresh face in politics, will make him enticing to voters and allow him to put together an East Side/South Side Coalition that catapulted Mayor Angel Taveras to victory in the Democratic Primary four years ago.
Nothing could be further from the truth. And as progressive hero Ayn Rand beckons us in her novel "Atlas Shrugged": let's check our premises.
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First of all, Solomon didn't lose the race because he lost to an East Side/South side coalition. He lost the race because he failed to run up the score in neighborhoods like Mount Pleasant, Elmhurst, and Federal Hill (where he lost). Had Solomon carried those neighborhoods decisively, he'd be taking on Cianci instead of Elorza.
Secondly, Elorza actually was defeated in the south side of the city by Solomon. Everyone makes a big deal about identity politics, but the fact that Elorza is Latino didn't put him over the top in the city's south side, which is a deeply Latino area.
And there's really no reason to doubt that that dynamic will change on a going forward basis either. Cianci has been courting the Hispanic population since the days when they used to make cheese by hand. So it wouldn't be a surprise to see Cianci defeat Elorza there either.
Taveras' train broke down
The conventional wisdom seems to be that Solomon's electoral weakness had something to do with a loan from the city that he and his partners failed to repay (Solomon was a minority partner in the company) and clerical errors on his ethics filings. I reject that notion.
Solomon ran his campaign based on the premise that voters are happy with the current direction and progress in the city under the last two administrations. Solomon practically joined himself to Angel Taveras at the hip, not only endorsing him, but featuring his close working relationship with the Mayor on the lion's share of his advertisements.
But what if Providence voters really aren't that crazy about the direction of the city of Providence? After all, the city seems to have more public relations issues than the NFL. Providence has the third highest commercial tax rates in the country, ridiculous property taxes, the highest car taxes in the state, reports of violent crime in almost every news cycle, and potholes that make city roads look like those of Berlin after World War 2.
A terrible alliance
Further, Taveras paid his close friend Michael D'Amico $200 an hour to give him financial advice on the budget, used taxpayer money to allow his top staff to park for free at the Biltmore hotel, and vindictively closed the Davy Lopes Pool because a city council member didn't want to go for his tax increase a year ago. When all those points were made clear to voters via mailing by Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Gina Raimondo, it made Solomon's alliance with Taveras a liability--not an asset.
Buddy Cianci knows all this. Whereas Solomon tied himself to Taveras, Cianci will attempt to tie Elorza to Taveras, arguing that he's just the next handpicked candidate in line from the group of "elitists", in Cianci's words, that have been running Providence ever since Cianci left office.
The sum and substance of Cianci's campaign message will be this: did you like Providence better when I was in charge, or when the people who succeeded me took over. If Cianci can stay on message and hammer that question home, he'll once again become our capital city's mayor.
That's because, to the dismay of the people who have been running city hall over the last 12 years, they may learn that people feel like things were better under Cianci's leadership, despite the ethical questions that surround his candidacy.
Then Cianci will be able to run up huge margins in his Elmhurst, Mount Pleasant, and the surrounding areas, while performing better on the East Side, where people have underestimated his support.
Nobody cares
There's also this notion out there that the Democratic candidates on the ticket will line up behind Elorza. But that won't make much of a difference, because we saw in the primaries from last week--nobody cares.
What they do care about is which candidate can be trusted to fill a pot hole, keep crime out of the news, and hold the line on taxes.
With that in mind, here's a memo to Buddy's adversaries: underestimate him at your own risk.
A native Rhode Islander, Russell J. Moore is a graduate of Providence College and St. Raphael Academy. He worked as a news reporter for 7 years (2004-2010), 5 of which with The Warwick Beacon, focusing on government. He continues to keep a close eye on the inner workings of Rhode Islands state and local governments. Find Russell J. Moore Twitter @russmoore713.
Related Slideshow: Questions Buddy Cianci Must Answer to be Providence’s Next Mayor
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