Rob Horowitz: Cicilline & Doherty is a Neck-and-Neck Race

In last week's back and forth over polling, the Cicilline campaign more than accomplished its objective of demonstrating that the Congressman, in the wake of his overwhelming primary victory over Anthony Gemma, has moved into a strongly competitive position in the general election contest against Brendan Doherty.

 

U.S. Rep. David Cicilline (D-1) led Doherty by 11 points, 46 percent to 35 percent in a poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by the Benenson Strategy Group, the lead polling firm for President Obama. The Cicilline campaign also released a poll conducted by its own pollster, Diane Feldman, with nearly identical numbers. Both polls had independent David Vogel in the high single digits: eight percent in the Benenson poll and seven percent in Feldman's poll . Some observers questioned the accuracy of the poll based on the fact that an unknown independent gathered nearly one-in-every-ten votes. However, in an election between an incumbent who still has high negatives and an opponent who is a Republican in a strongly Democratic district, it is not unusual for voters to at least park for a while by indicating their choice for a third candidate.

 

Perhaps more telling than the results released by two highly credible Democratic Polling Firms, was the information the Doherty campaign revealed about its own polling. Unsuccessful in initial attempts to discredit the Democratic polls by inaccurately calling them ‘push polls’, the Doherty campaign finally acknowledged that its own poll showed Doherty was ahead by less than the margin of error, but still refused to provide specific numbers. In other words, even if we take Doherty at his word, his polling shows a close and competitive race in which Cicilline has gained significant ground since the beginning of the year when public polling had him behind by 15 points.

 

The major impact of last week’s battle of polls will be on fundraising. It will become more difficult for Doherty to attract national Republican money and SuperPAC support when there are better targets for the Republicans, including spending money to re-elect vulnerable House incumbents. On the other hand, these numbers mean the national Democratic spigots will open even wider for Cicilline.

 

The poll results should also help reset and expand the all-too-one-note local media frame on this race. While then-Mayor Cicilline’s too rosy description of Providence finances in his 2010 Congressional campaign remains a significant vulnerability, it is far from the only salient element. At the end of the day, this is a race for Congress in a Presidential year where national issues are going to drive much of the campaign agenda and make a large contribution to the voters’ ultimate choice.

 

In a district where President Obama received well over 60 percent of the vote in 2008, Brendan Doherty faces a high bar in persuading voters that he is a ‘different” kind of Republican. Achieving this goal requires going beyond his attractive biography and putting forward an ambitious policy agenda that diverges substantially from the one advanced by Mitt Romney or Congressional Republicans. This takes much thought and a fair amount of political skill—skill the first-time candidate has yet to demonstrate. On the other hand, Cicilline is well-versed in national issues and his views align with the voters of the District.

In 2006, Sheldon Whitehouse was able to defeat a truly different kind of Republican, Lincoln Chafee, despite Chafee’s high approval ratings, by tying him to an unpopular President Bush. While Cicilline clearly still has his own vulnerabilities, it is worth noting that the Congressional Republicans who Cicilline is already wrapping around Doherty are far more unpopular today than President Bush was then.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.