Rob Horowitz: Obama Still the Favorite in November
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
President Barack Obama begins this election year much better positioned for re-election than most thought he would only a few short months ago. His job approval rating is now at 47 percent, according to the Real Clear Politics Average, and he remains favorably perceived by a substantial majority of the American electorate. Equally as important, the American economy is finally being to see some lift—a development critically important to the President’s re-election chances.
President Obama is also well-positioned to run against a “do-nothing” Congress as Harry Truman did in 1948. While Obama is certainly not a fiery populist like Harry Truman, he did spend his first three years in office visibly and vocally attempting to work with Republicans whose main item on the agenda appeared to be to oppose Obama every step of the way. The Republican ploy backfired, however – Congress now has a 13 percent approval rating -- and voters believe Obama when he now argues that he must act unilaterally and that House Republicans are standing in the way of progress.
Obama’s recent recess appointment of former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray to head the new Federal Consumer Protection Agency is a preview of coming attractions. In this election year, Obama will aggressively use his executive authority to make progress on policies that he believes are important and to solidify important constituencies. Last week’s announcement that a new federal rule will be issued making it easier for immigrant families to reunite is another case in point.
Moreover, on the issues most important to voters, Obama is positioned in the broad center of the electorate, while the Republican nomination process is forcing the Republican candidates further to the right.
Obama also possesses a number of campaign advantages; he is well on his way to having a $1 billion war-chest which will enable him to expand the electoral map and compete in more states; the campaign is well-organized in all the key states; and it has an experienced and talented campaign team.
The general election campaign is still likely to be close and very competitive. Unemployment will almost certainly still be high in the summer of 2012 and too many American families will still be struggling. On balance, however, I would rather be in Obama’s position today than that of any of his potential opponents.
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