Rob Horowitz: Millennial Turnout is a Key for Obama

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Rob Horowitz, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

Despite being hit hard by the Great Recession, the broad attitudes and characteristics of the so-called Millennial generation still provide fertile soil for President Barack Obama who fared well with these voters in 2008 and will need another strong showing from the 18 to 29 age group to win re-election this fall.

In 2008, more than two out of every three voters between the ages of 18 and 29 chose Barack Obama over his Republican opponent, U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Arizona). Just as important, nearly one out of every five voters in the 2008 election came from this age group/ In fact, turnout among young voters slightly exceeded turnout among voters over age 65—the only age group McCain won.

This impressive youth turnout in 2008 contrasts with the much lower youth turnout in the 2010 Congressional mid-term elections where there were nearly two voters 65 and older for every one voter between the ages of 18 and 29. Not surprisingly, the Republicans routed the Democrats and regained control of the House. Of course, it is usually the case that older Americans cast a greatly disproportionate share of the vote in mid-term elections which tend to generate lower turnout overall.

Millennials -- those who were born between 1983 and 2003--now comprise all voters between the ages of 18 and 29. Polling shows they are far more supportive of an active government than the electorate as a whole. By and large, they are very community minded and tend to view public service more positively than previous generations. They back same-sex marriage and a comprehensive immigration policy that includes a path to citizenship. The only counters to this more liberal voter profile is that this age group tends to be skeptical that medicare and social security will be there for their generation and is about evenly split on the issue of abortion.

According to millennial experts, Morley Winograd and Michael Hais, 40 percent of Millennials are Latino, African-American, Asian or of mixed racial background. This is a big increase from Generation X and the Baby Boomers where these groups comprised 25 percent. Further, it is large generation, 95 million strong, meaning a large potential voter pool from which to draw.

Equally as important, Millennials have maintained their optimism in the face of difficult economic circumstances. In a recent Pew Poll, nearly nine in 10 still say they “either earn enough money now or they will in the future.”

Still, providing motivation to vote for this group is a critical campaign component for the Obama campaign. Obama’s convention speech theme that “we are all in this together” and its emphasis on the role of active citizenship in a democracy is likely to have special resonance with Millennials. Clearly, that was not accident on the President's part.

Moreover, Obama has made increasing access to higher education a front-and-center platform point -- including successfully forcing the Republican Congress to hold down interest rates on student loans. He has also emphasized the importance of community colleges to job creation; fought for more financial aid and proposed incentives for colleges to control tuition costs.

To push the message, he has spent significant campaign time speaking on college campuses in battleground states as a way to reignite enthusiasm. Campaign resources are devoted to a sophisticated effort to use social media to foster the kind of peer-to-peer sharing of information that is effective with young voters.

It is also important to note that turnout among young voters was also high in 2004, a race without Obama on the ballot. The outlook and civic-minded attitudes of this new generation of voters is likely to produce another high turnout despite some reduced enthusiasm for the President.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.

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Comments:

Captain Blacksocks

4:53pm on Tuesday, September 11, 2012

In that case, let's hope all the millennials stay home on voting day to watch the Jersey Shore Snooki's Baby Marathon. If millennials were really "civic minded" they'd be worried about heading toward a 20 trillon dollar debt that THEY will need to repay after 4 more years of OhBlameYa. Did you read that Moody's is gearing up to cut the US credit rating. I hope they do. The will be a good civics lesson for the college kids. Blame Bush again? Yes, says OhBlameYa.

jon paycheck

5:27pm on Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Have you read "the amateur" yet?

very insightful...lots of democrats quoted.

Art West

9:09am on Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Captain,

You make a huge point. The massive government debt, to which celebrity president Obama has added almost $6 trillion, will be shouldered by the Millennial generation. Apparently the Millennials, happily voting for style over substance, are unaware of the burden that will be rolled on top of them. In a few years time they may be cursing rather than celebrating the Obama Administration.