Rob Horowitz: Cicilline, Obama will Win in 2012
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Below are some predictions for 2012. They are no more than guesses. As we all know too well predictions are the fools’ errand of punditry -- although a lot of fun.
Cicilline will be re-elected:
Despite his 24% approval rating in a recent Brown University Poll, U.S. Rep. David Cicilline(D-1) will be re-elected. Cicilline, the former Providence Mayor, has taken a big credibility hit for saying that the Providence budget was in fine shape when it turned out there was a large budget gap. However, his recent poll numbers are actually a 7-point improvement from March. At the end of the day this race will be more about national issues and who is best to fight for the middle class, than about whether the former Providence Mayor was less than candid in his description of the Providence budget situation in 2010.
Further, Cicilline picked up a likely net increase of several thousand votes in the recent redistricting, making an already Democratic district even more favorable for him. He is on his way to raising $2 million and excels at retail campaigning and staying on message. Cicilline is further advantaged by the likelihood of a hard-fought Republican Primary in which the more conservative candidate, John Loughlin, is a slight favorite over the better-funded, but more moderate and so far less polished Brendan Doherty. Neither of Cicilline’s potential primary opponents, Anthony Gemma nor David Segal, are that formidable.
Progress will occur on municipal pension reform:
The continuing financial struggles of Rhode Island cities and towns, along with the popularity of comprehensive pension reform as evidenced in its more than 60% support in the recent Brown Poll, will fuel momentum for municipal pension reform. State legislation that provides more tools to municipalities than currently exist will pass the General Assembly and be signed into law by the Governor in 2012.
President Obama will be re-elected:
The Presidential election of 2012 promises to be hard fought, close and competitive. But I believe President Obama will be re-elected. Obama remains well liked and his job-approval rating is now inching closer to 50%. Perhaps most important, the economy is finally beginning to see some lift. He holds significant demographic advantages; will have a war-chest of more than $1 billion and possesses an experienced and talented campaign team. The Tea Party influence on the Republican nominating contest is forcing the leading Republican candidates further to the right and an increasingly likely lengthy nominating contest will make it that much harder for the eventual winner to move back to the middle for the general election.
Giants will beat Cowboys:
The New York Giants will kickoff the New Year in style with a victory over the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday night. Wiping the smirk off Jerry Jones’ face is even better than shutting up Rex Ryan.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
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Comments:
anthony sionni
7:15am on Tuesday, December 27, 2011
I disagree,cicilline will go down,dont count on the extra votes due to redistricting . If Gemma runs,he will beat him,Gemma has created more jobs than cicilline has in his life time/ We need jobs and cicilline isnt doing anything!!! I am a democrat and I am not supporting him,Ill vote republican if I have to!
john paycheck
9:47am on Tuesday, December 27, 2011
surprise . surprise.. a golocal columnist goes straight democrat
Jim Iezzi
10:04am on Tuesday, December 27, 2011
I can't believe that the Rhode Island voters, even with this redistricting would put Cicilline in office again. Anthony is right, Gemma will defeat him. And what does Rex Ryan have to do with a game between the Giants and the Cowboys? Rex Ryan coaches the Jets.
peter costello
10:44am on Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Less than candid? Really? He lied. Tell that to Mayor Taveras (less than candid) who is trying his best to balence the budget. One can only hope you are wrong. He should have never won to begin with.
allan pp
11:03am on Tuesday, December 27, 2011
You can't take much of what this guy says seriously. He's apparently a part-time professor who tries to be involved behind the scenes in RI politics so of course he's got to kiss Democrat ass. While RI'ers are dumb, Cicilline is a lying little weasel that I don't think they're dumb enough to re-elect. Nationally, Obama needs to be voted out because this country is worse off in every single regard since he took office except for the elimination of Bin Laden. Four more years of him will risk even greater damage being done.
allan pp
11:04am on Tuesday, December 27, 2011
And Americans not living in RI are far more likely to see that and vote accordingly than are those who live here.
Cara Mella
11:08am on Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Re; Cicilline.
Here we go again...let us not be surprised by the tone of this article. When Rob Horowitz receives a job from a city or the state...(just look at the successful maneuvering of Brian Hull and Matt Jerzyk both former rifuture owners and bloggers) you'll know the fix was in. This is just the beginning folks.
john paycheck
12:35pm on Tuesday, December 27, 2011
for saying that the Providence budget was in fine shape when it turned out there was a large budget gap
the guy LIED....dont you get it. he LIED....
there was no mistake of info, HE LIED...just admit it...
nothing "turned out" that way....he knew about ti all along .. he lied..
and by the way, he lied about his brothjer and the property tax check.
and he deliberately withheld information for the city of providence auditors until after the election so the cities losses would not be public.
are you a columnist or on cicclinis payroll. HE LIED!!!!! aside form your ability as a columnist, it speaks poorly of your character when you can't admit someone lied.
Charles Drago
2:07pm on Tuesday, December 27, 2011
_______________________________
These lamebrain predictions come from the same Rob Horowitz whose bold and deep political insight managed Myrth York to two devastating defeats in consecutive gubernatorial elections.
As York's two-time campaign manger, Horowitz plumbed new depths of ineptitude. A stunning example thereof: Horowitz choreographed York's vicious eleventh-hour personal attack against the admittedly disgusting Don Carcieri -- and in the process plunged a dagger into his own candidate's weak heart.
And that's just for starters.
Rob Horowitz is Myrth York Lite -- and if that doesn't send your cerebral cortex into a dervish-like dance, nothing will -- so count on him to attempt to defend the utterly dishonorable, utterly incompetent, utterly indefensible serial liar known as David Cicilline.
Those of us who value honor, competence, and truth in our elected officials can but pray that David Cicilline enlists Rob Horowitz into his 2012 campaign brain trust.
David Cicilline's loss, like Rob Horowitz's I.Q., will be in double digits.
Where do we find such talent?
Charles Drago
2:12pm on Tuesday, December 27, 2011
_________________
"At the end of the day this race will be more about national issues and who is best to fight for the middle class, than about whether the former Providence Mayor was less than candid in his description of the Providence budget situation in 2010." -- Rob "Two-Time Loser" Horowitz
Let's see ...
Number of fights for the middle class won by David Cicilline? ZERO!
Number of national policy issues positively impacted by David Cicilline? ZERO!
Number of municipalities brought to the brink of economic ruin by the lying, incompetent David Cicilline? ONE! PROVIDENCE, RI!
Number of lies told to the electorate by David Cicilline? TOO MANY TO COUNT!
David Cicilline is defenseless in 2012. And not even the genius Horowitz can save him now.
Nick Patriarca
1:46pm on Wednesday, December 28, 2011
i've heard horowiz inarticulate , ineffective babble regarding blindly supporting cicilline
on lively exoeriment . what a boorish , political hack . giving cicilline no accountability for his criminal deception and the voters no credit for be aware of this fraud and voting him out .
Mike Govern
3:54pm on Thursday, December 29, 2011
Rob--lay off the weed...