Rob Horowitz: Cicilline, Obama will Win in 2012
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Below are some predictions for 2012. They are no more than guesses. As we all know too well predictions are the fools’ errand of punditry -- although a lot of fun.
Cicilline will be re-elected:
Despite his 24% approval rating in a recent Brown University Poll, U.S. Rep. David Cicilline(D-1) will be re-elected. Cicilline, the former Providence Mayor, has taken a big credibility hit for saying that the Providence budget was in fine shape when it turned out there was a large budget gap. However, his recent poll numbers are actually a 7-point improvement from March. At the end of the day this race will be more about national issues and who is best to fight for the middle class, than about whether the former Providence Mayor was less than candid in his description of the Providence budget situation in 2010.
Further, Cicilline picked up a likely net increase of several thousand votes in the recent redistricting, making an already Democratic district even more favorable for him. He is on his way to raising $2 million and excels at retail campaigning and staying on message. Cicilline is further advantaged by the likelihood of a hard-fought Republican Primary in which the more conservative candidate, John Loughlin, is a slight favorite over the better-funded, but more moderate and so far less polished Brendan Doherty. Neither of Cicilline’s potential primary opponents, Anthony Gemma nor David Segal, are that formidable.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTProgress will occur on municipal pension reform:
The continuing financial struggles of Rhode Island cities and towns, along with the popularity of comprehensive pension reform as evidenced in its more than 60% support in the recent Brown Poll, will fuel momentum for municipal pension reform. State legislation that provides more tools to municipalities than currently exist will pass the General Assembly and be signed into law by the Governor in 2012.
President Obama will be re-elected:
The Presidential election of 2012 promises to be hard fought, close and competitive. But I believe President Obama will be re-elected. Obama remains well liked and his job-approval rating is now inching closer to 50%. Perhaps most important, the economy is finally beginning to see some lift. He holds significant demographic advantages; will have a war-chest of more than $1 billion and possesses an experienced and talented campaign team. The Tea Party influence on the Republican nominating contest is forcing the leading Republican candidates further to the right and an increasingly likely lengthy nominating contest will make it that much harder for the eventual winner to move back to the middle for the general election.
Giants will beat Cowboys:
The New York Giants will kickoff the New Year in style with a victory over the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday night. Wiping the smirk off Jerry Jones’ face is even better than shutting up Rex Ryan.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
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