Riley: Did Chris Christie Discover Gold?
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
The idea apparently has been brewing for a while and at first glance looks like a drastic action.
This idea was highlighted in Russell Moore’s excellent article yesterday.
This intriguing proposal is interdependent on some very complicated workings and accounting. It starts with the accepted financial idea that the RI Lottery has annual cash flows of variable predictability.
The financial concept is the following, as my former professor Aswath Damadoran describes below.
Rhode Island Lottery net revenues to the general fund were $369.8 million as of fiscal year end June 3, 2016. The Moore proposal and NJ contemplate placing an asset “The Lottery” which NJ says produces nearly $1 billion a year in revenue and they have estimated the value of the asset to be placed in the pension fund as $13 Billion.
The plan is to then return the lottery revenues to the General Coffers in 30 years. Most of us will all be plant food by then, including Chris Christie, so this appears to be a typical misleading political maneuver. But for the sake of investigation I want to work through the numbers and the complications. I have not seen how New Jersey arrived at its valuation for the Lottery of $13 billion. Simple estimating implies an RI Lottery asset “worth” $4.5 Billion.
There are many complications involved in this estimate. Those complications include that the lottery system cannot legally be fully privatized. So, creating a theoretical value is suspect. Nevertheless, there is a cash flow expected and subject to estimates that can be discounted to a present value. What discount rate was used? And what should be used? Does every lottery system have different risks and therefor different discount rates? Then there is the huge accounting issue and GASB. How does the Pension actuary discount 30 years of cash flows from the lottery?
While these are serious complications, apparently, somebody in New Jersey has worked through these issues and made assumptions. I want to see these assumptions and calculations then apply Rhode Island’s numbers to get an idea of the effect such a proposal would have here.
What is the privatization of a public assets?
Highways, Toll Bridges and Public Utilities have all been privatized, sold by Governments to private investors. Unfortunately, privatization of public assets , and unusual debt financing, like issuing Pension Obligation Bonds, are often early markers for approaching bankruptcy. The Ratings agencies have already warned Rhode Island and Providence against one time fixes for structural financial problems. Here is how a recent academic white paper put it:
“Governments undertaking privatization have pursued a variety of objectives. In some cases, privatization is a means of achieving gains in economic efficiency, given the extensive prevalence of poor economic performance of public enterprises in many countries and limited success with their reform. Privatization can also be a mechanism for improving the fiscal position, particularly in cases where governments have been unwilling or unable to continue to finance deficits in the public enterprise sector, such as in Argentina. Liquidity-constrained governments facing fiscal pressures have sometimes privatized with a view to financing fiscal deficits with the proceeds. And privatization can also be a means of developing domestic capital markets, which is also correlated with growth.”
Are we New Jersey or Argentina?
Substitute Argentina with Providence or Rhode Island in the above paragraph and I think that’s where we are. We are praying for a way out of our fiscal mismanagement and anything looks hopeful.
Instead it really is just kicking the can. Massachusetts Governor William Weld opined on privatization a few years back.
I will follow up on the math and the accounting issues in this NJ proposal. My thanks to Russell Moore for waking me up.
Related Slideshow: Timeline - Rhode Island Pension Reform
GoLocalProv breaks down the sequence of events that have played out during Rhode Island's State Employee Pension Fund reform.
Governor Don Carcieri makes pension reform a top priority in his emergency budget plan. His three-point plan included:
1. An established minimum retirment age of 59 for all state and municipal employees.
2. Elimination of cost-of-living increases.
3. Conversion of new hires into a 401(k) style plan.
See WPRI's coverage of Carcieri's proposal here.
Rhode Island's state administered public employee pension system only held 48% of the assets to cover future payments to its emplyees.
"This system as designed today is fundamentally unsustainable, and it is in your best interest to fix it" - Gina Raimondo
Check out Wall Street Journal's coverage here.
Gina Raimondo defeats opponent Kernan King in the election for General Treasurer of Rhode Island using her platform to reform the structure of Rhode Island's public employee pension system. She received 201,625 votes, more than any other politician on the 2010 Rhode Island ballot.
Raimondo leads effort to reduce the state’s assumed rate of return on pension investments from 8.25 to 7.5%.
Her proposal includes plans to suspend the Cost of Living Adjustment (which allows for raises corresponding with rates of inflation for retirees), changing the retirement age to match Social Security ages, and adding a defined contribution plan.
Raimondo releases “Truth in Numbers”, a report detailing the pension crisis and offering possible solutions. She continues to work to raise public support for her proposal.
"Decades of ignoring actuarial assumptions led to lower taxpayer & employee contributions being made into the system." - Gina Raimondo (Truth in Numbers)
Read GoLocalProv's analysis of the report here.
Read the Truth in Numbers report here.
Governor Lincoln Chafee and General Treasurer Gina Raimondo present their pension reform legislation proposal before a joint session of the General Assembly.
“Our fundamental goal throughout this process has been to provide retirement security through reforms that are fair to the three main interested parties: retirees, current employees and the taxpayer…I join the General Treasurer in urging the General Assembly to take decisive action and adopt these reforms.”- Gov. Lincoln Chafee
Head of Rhode Island firefighters’ union accuses Raimondo of “cooking the books” to create a pension problem where one did not exist. Paul Valletta Jr. states that Raimondo raised Rhode Islanders’ assumed mortality rate to increase liability to the state, using data from 1994 instead of updated information from 2008, and lowered the anticipated rate of return on state investments.
“You’re going after the retirees! In this economic time, how could you possibly take a pension away?” Paul Valletta Jr (Head of RI Firefighters' Union)
Read more from the firefighters' battle with Raimondo here.
Check out the New York Times' take on RI's pension crisis here.
November 17, 2011
The Rhode Island Retirement Security Act (RIRSA) is enacted by the General Assembly with bipartisan support in both chambers. RIRSA’s passing is slated to reduce the unfunded liability of RI’s pension system and increase its funding status by $3 billion and 60% respectively, level contributions to the pension system by taxpayers, save municipalities $100 million through lessened contributions to teacher and MERS pension systems, and lower the cost of borrowing.
Read more from GoLocalProv here.
November 18, 2011
Governor Lincoln Chafee signs RIRSA into law. According to a December 2011 Brown University poll, 60% of Rhode Island residents support the reform. Following its enactment, Raimondo holds regional sessions to educate public employees on the effects of the legislation on their retirement benefits.
Read about how Rhode Islanders react to RIRSA here.
Raimondo hosts local workshops to explain the pension reforms across Rhode Island. She also receives national attention for her contributions to the state’s pension reforms. The reforms are given praise and many believe Rhode Island will serve as a template for other States’ future pension reforms.
Read about the pension workshop here.
Read Raimondo's feature in Institutional Investor here.
March - April 2012
Raimondo opposes Governor Chafee’s proposal to cut pension-funded deposits. She continued to provide workshops on the pension reforms.
December 5, 2012
Raimondo publicly opposes Governor Chafee’s meetings with union leaders in an effort to avoid judicial rulings on the pension reform package. In response, Chafee issues a statement supporting the negotiations.
Read more about Raimondo's opposition here.
Read about Chafee's statement http://www.golocalprov.com/news/new-chafee-issues-statement-supporting-pension-negotiations/">here.
Led by the Rhode Island State Association of Fire Fighters, unions protest the 2011 pension reform outside of the Omni Providence where Governor Lincoln Chafee and General Treasurer Gina Raimondo conduct a national conference of bond investors.
Read about Raimondo's discussion of distressed municipalities here.
The pension plan comes under increased scrutiny as a result of the involvement of hedge funds and private equity firms. Reports show that $200 million of the state pension fund was lost in 2012.
"In short, impressive educational credentials and limited knowledge of investment industry realities made Raimondo ideally suited to champion private equity’s public pension money grab." - Ted Seidle (Forbes)
Read GoLocalProv's coverage of the State Pension Fund's losses here.
Read Ted Seidle's criticism of Raimondo in Forbes.
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