RI GOP Presidential Primary Will Matter in 2012
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
The Iowa Straw Poll, which took place over this past weekend, and the entrance of Governor Rick Perry of Texas into the campaign, serve as a reminder that the 2012 Presidential race is moving into a higher gear. And this time the Rhode Island Republican Primary is likely to matter. In 2008, John McCain was for all intents and purposes the nominee before Republicans in Rhode Island had the opportunity to vote.
The Rhode Island Presidential Primary is scheduled for April 24 and unless President Obama draws a credible primary opponent which is highly unlikely, all the attention will be on the Republican contest.
A combination of a significant rules change and a wide open race means that the Rhode Island Republican primary is likely to be hotly contested. In an effort to slow down what many party leaders believe was a nomination process that had become too much of a rush to judgment, the Republican National Committee adopted a new rule in 2010 that requires any state holding their primary or caucus before April 1 to select delegates by proportional representation. Previously, nearly all the states had winner-take all rules often resulting in front-runners amassing delegate totals very quickly.
Further, at this point there is no dominating national frontrunner. This usually means a more extended nomination contest.
So on April 24, when primaries are held in Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York and Pennsylvania—the most probable scenario is that the candidates will still be fighting for every last delegate.
As the contest for the nomination plays out over the next several months, it will be interesting to see how Rhode Island Republicans position themselves. At this early date, it appears that Mitt Romney—the former Governor of neighboring Massachusetts who is regarded by most as somewhat of a national frontrunner—has a bit of an advantage. Romney has already won the endorsement of former Governor Carcieri, former Congressman Ron Machtley and Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian, among others.
Political observers will also be watching to see if Rhode Island Tea Party activists coalesce around either Governor Perry or Representative Michele Bachmann(R-MN), winner of the Iowa Straw Poll. Both are favorites of the Tea Party nationally. Another possibility is that the recent splits in the Rhode Island Tea Party movement will be reflected in the Presidential race with Bachmann and Perry each winning some support from local Tea Party members.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST
Another topic of local interest is which Republicans will emerge as visible spokespeople for the Presidential candidates using the Presidential contest to raise their own profile. State Representative Bob Watson emerging as the go-to-guy for local reporters covering the McCain campaign is a recent example.
Given that there will likely be no Democratic contest, there may be more independents voting in the Rhode Island Republican Presidential Primary than is usual. The preferences of these voters—who were a key to Lincoln Chafee defeating Steve Laffey in the Republican Primary for US Senate in 2006—will be closely monitored.
With Rhode Island likely to be in on the Republican nominating action, there will be plentiful local angles upon which media and political junkies can chew. Count me as one Democrat who is looking forward to watching as the maneuvering begins in earnest.
If you valued this article, please LIKE GoLocalProv.com on Facebook by clicking HERE.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
