RI GOP Predicts: Who Will Win Iowa?
Tuesday, January 03, 2012
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will win today’s Iowa Caucus, several local Republicans are predicting.
Romney, Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum are viewed as the favorites in what many are calling a race that is too close to call, with nearly half of those polled saying they are still unsure of how they’ll vote.
The Iowa Caucuses are the first major electoral event of the year and while nothing is likely to be decided today, the results could be the beginning of the end for several candidates in the crowded field.
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According to Patrick Sweeney, executive director of the Rhode Island Republican Party, Romney, Paul and Santorum all still have a chance to pull out the victory. Sweeney said Romney has been impressive considering he hasn’t spent much time in Iowa.
“Iowa is going to be a tight battle between Governor Romney, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum,” he said. “While Ron has a strong base, and Rick has really worn out the shoe leather, Mitt could still pull this off. Yet, just a couple weeks ago, Mitt was not even supposed to me in the top three and didn’t spend any time in Iowa. Now, in just over a week, he is showing his organizational superiority over the field. It may literally come down to whose supporters will come out in the cold weather.”
GOP Chairman Mark Zaccaria said he believes it will come down to Romney and Paul.
“I’m looking at Romney and Paul as One & Two or Two and One in Iowa,” Zaccaria said. “Ron Paul has done the work on the ground there more so than Mitt Romney, but the mainstream R’s are so afraid of Dr. Paul’s ‘End the Fed’ position and his Constitutional bias towards ‘No Foreign Entanglements’ that they may embrace Gov. Romney as a defense mechanism. On paper, that shouldn’t impact the average Caucus Attendee, but the force of media must not be underestimated: In the end, average Iowan’s may abandon Ron Paul because they have been convinced from New York and Los Angeles that he cannot win – despite their feelings of support”
Elected Officials Differ
State Representative Doreen Costa, a Michele Bachmann supporter, said she believes Santorum has been surging, but that she sees Romney pulling out the victory.
“I think you are going to see Rick Santorum finish in the top three,” Costa said. “He is going to be the big surprise. Too many people have counted him out. I think the top three will be Mitt, Ron Paul and Rick.”
State Senator Nick Kettle has endorsed Paul and said he hopes the Texas Congressman has put himself in a position to steal a win in Iowa.
“I hope that Ron Paul will continue with his recent momentum,” Kettle said. “I can see him winning the caucus but realistically see him coming in second which will actually I think provide quite a bit of momentum as he goes into New Hampshire.”
Top Bloggers: Romney’s the Guy
Meanwhile, two bloggers at the state’s top conservative website, Anchor Rising, say Romney looks like he’ll come out the winner.
“At this point, the establishment clearly sees Romney as the safer bet (and even Ann Coulter endorses him as the most likely to perform on her secondary priority of immigration),” Justin Katz, the blog’s founder said. “The more overtly conservative candidates all have serious flaws.”
Patrick Laverty, another Anchor Rising Blogger, said he thinks Romney will cruise to victory.
“I'm not going to buck the trend so I'll pick Romney to win,” Laverty said. “What I will say different is that he'll win bigger than expected. Closer to 30%. I think the Romney momentum is gaining as the media is now calling him the ‘inevitable’ candidate. People like to get behind the winner and I think the people in Iowa will get behind Romney in bigger numbers than expected. Ron Paul will still finish well but I think Romney will take numbers from the recent Santorum surge.”
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