Some changed history for decades to come. Others started a movement.
At the national level, no one gave now-President Donald Trump a chance to win the White House. Statistical guru Nate Silver missed the Presidential prediction by epic proportions. His FiveThirtyEight website was wrong, but so was nearly every other political data machine.
In fact, NYMAG.com tweaked Silver the week before the election for his modeling giving Trump even a one-in-three chance of winning.
“Right now, FiveThirtyEight — the site founded by celebrated data wizard Nate Silver — gives Trump a nearly one in three shot of winning the presidency Tuesday night. The Huffington Post, by contrast, puts his chances at roughly 2 percent,” wrote the magazine.
Chafee won by 398 votes in 1962. Photo here as Sec. of the Navy
In Rhode Island
Governor Gina Raimondo and her nearly $8 million are the odds-on-favorite to win the Democratic primary, but could Raimondo fall to insurgent Matt Brown?
On the GOP side, could House Minority Leader Patricia Morgan topple Cranston Mayor Allan Fung?
Polling indicates that Raimondo and Fung will meet again in a rematch.
The following slides take a look at those that had no chance of emerging victorious — yet their winning changed the course of Rhode Island’s political history.
Related Slideshow: Rhode Island’s Biggest Political Upsets
In 1988, a Newport lawyer named Ron Machtley pulled off one of the biggest political upsets in America.
Machtley toppled the all-powerful House Chairman Fernand St. Germain -- a Rhode Island political institution and a national power in banking and housing.
According to the Washington Post’s obituary of St. Germain, his insider dealing caught up with him in and opened the door for Machtley, now the President of Bryant University, to upset him.
In its report, the [Wall Street] Journal concluded that the congressman amassed $2 million while in public office. Mr. St Germain released a statement criticizing the Journal story for “unfair and unsupported innuendos. I have made investments with the objective of providing for my family. I made no apologies for making this effort.”
Ethics committee findings — released in 1987 — said that Mr. St Germain had been sloppy on his disclosure forms but concluded that he had not abused his office for personal gain. In the matter of the Florida S&L, the committee found no evidence that the federal regulator made any decisions “on behalf” of Mr. St Germain.
In early 1988, the DOJ decided against prosecuting the congressman, citing insufficient evidence. But later that year, unsealed court documents disclosed that department investigators found “substantial evidence of serious and sustained misconduct” by Mr. St Germain. The phrase had an impact on what would be the congressman’s final re-election bid.
Maybe the biggest upset in Rhode Island political history, it reset the political stage for decades. A car dealer upset the sitting Governor in the Democratic primary for the United States Senate. The upset allowed John Chafee to return from the political dead and win the United States Senate seat of retiring John O.Pastore.
PROVIDENCE, R. T., Sept. 22—Richard P. Lorber, a political unknown, was declared the winner of the Democratic nomination to the United States Senate over Gov. Philip Noel today, by a margin of 100 votes.
Charges of voter irregularity in the Sept. 14 primary, now under investigation, could conceivably change the results.
Mr. Lorber's thin margin—which constituted the greatest upset in this state's political history—was certified after days of heated dispute over absentee ballots and recounts just half an hour short of the day's 5 P.M. legal deadline.
Governor Noel said this evening he would press an investigation of the allegations of voting fraud. Any challenge by him of the results, he told a news conference, would depend on the investigation.
Mr. Lorber, a Cadillac dealer, had spent some $400,000 in an aggressive, slickly packaged “anti‐politician” campaign.
In 1962, a 40-year-old Republican John Chafee upset sitting Governor John Notte.
It was an epic win by just 398 votes.
The statewide win was the first of many in John Chafee's career and set forth a transformation in Rhode Island history -- the rise of the moderate Republicans -- helping to launch the careers of Lila Sapinsley, Arlene Violet, Susan Farmer, Barbara Leonard, Ron Machtley, and Claudine Schneider.
Cianci — First Italian-American Mayor of Providence
Vincent “Buddy” Cianci was not only the City of Providence’s first Italian American mayor, but was also the first Republican mayor in decades.
Ironically, in 1974, Cianci ran as the “Anti-Corruption" candidate. Cianci won in an upset over Mayor Joe Doorley by just 709 votes.
According to The Prince of Providence, Cianci won just four of the 15 wards, but he piled up big margins on Providence’s East Side. In the 2nd Ward, Cianci won with 71 percent of the vote.
Ranglin-Vassell - The Start of the Progressive Movement
Providence teacher Marcia Ranglin-Vassell won victory in the House District 5 primary to beat House Majority Leader John DeSimone in 2016.
It was a win that redirected politics in Rhode Island. It showed that machine candidates could be upset by progressive activists. The 2016 election was the beginning.
As GoLocal reported primary night:
With the Board of Elections reporting 100% of precincts, Ranglin had 677 votes -- to DeSimone's 660.
"I just beat the establishment....fighting for all of us," wrote Ranglin-Vassell on her Facebook page just before 10 p.m.
Earlier in the summer, GoLocalProv flagged DeSimone's vulnerability, "Is House Majority Leader DeSimone One of the Most Vulnerable?"
Rhode Island House Majority Leader John DeSimone, who admitted this year to failing to pay his property taxes on time and owing the city more than $18,000, is facing a primary challenge from Marcia Ranglin-Vassell.
How did a Republican mayor of Cranston win the Governorship in the 1980s? The answer, a brutal Democratic primary and an upset.
Powerful Warwick Mayor Joe Walsh was a shoe-in to win the Democratic nomination for Governor in 1984, but then came Anthony Solomon. The divisive primary and upset by Solomon opened the door for a DiPrete victory in November.
The Governor [Joe Garrahy] would have faced a tough primary fight had he decided to seek re-election. His principal opponent would have been Mayor Joseph W. Walsh of Warwick, the state's second largest city. Mayor Walsh and his allies moved to seize control of the party after the special Senate election in June, when substantial Republican gains left the Democratic leadership in disarray.
John C. Revens, a Walsh ally, became Senate majority leader, and the Walsh forces have expressed confidence they would win the party chairmanship for former Attorney General Julius C. Michaelson.
As a result, Mayor Walsh is now considered virtually certain to win the party's endorsement in June. But State General Treasurer Anthony J. Solomon is planning to enter the race and Lieut. Gov. Thomas R. DiLuglio has said he would run if Governor Garrahy stepped aside.
President John F. Kennedy called Claiborne Pell “the least electable man in America.”
But, the quirky patrician pulled off one of the greatest political upsets in Rhode Island history by beating two political titans in the 1960 Democratic primary for the United States Senate.
Pell defeated both former Governor Dennis J. Roberts and former Governor and U.S. Senator J. Howard McGrath in the Democratic primary to win the seat held by another Rhode Island institution — Theodore Francis Green.
Pell went on to a storied career. As the Los Angles Times wrote at the time of Pell’s death in 2009, “Pell, the quirky blueblood who represented blue-collar Rhode Island in the U.S. Senate for 36 years and was the force behind a grant program that has helped tens of millions of Americans attend college, died Thursday after a long battle with Parkinson's disease. He was 90."
