Senate Race 2012: Who Can Beat Whitehouse?
Saturday, March 12, 2011
If it seems like it’s too early to be talking about the next election season, you probably live in the wrong state. From the moment last November’s races were decided, political hopefuls have been thinking about 2012, a Presidential election year that is also expected to feature a hotly contested Senate race in Rhode Island.
So who is likely to challenge incumbent Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse? GoLocalProv asked four insiders from both sides of the aisle to break down the field of potential candidates.
Profughi: Carcieri Is The Favorite
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTThe favorite, according to Quest Research pollster Victor Profughi, is Don Carcieri, who has the money and name recognition to win a Republican primary. Although no potential candidates, including Carcieri, have announced their intentions for 2012, Profughi said the former Governor would win the nomination if he sought it.
While Carcieri could win the nomination, Profughi said defeating Senator Whitehouse is another story. “He would almost certainly lose the general election to Whitehouse,” Profughi wrote in an e-mail to GoLocalProv. “In fact, I would place his chances of beating the incumbent at no more than one in 10.”
Profughi said he believes the candidate with the best chance of defeating Whitehouse would be Brendan Doherty, who recently stepped down as head of the State Police. Doherty has not confirmed that he plans to run for public office, he has expressed interest in continuing to serve the public, which led to rumors of a potential Senate or Congressional run.
“If Brendan Doherty has the stomach to make a run, and can raise the 3 to 4 million or so he'll need, he would make a strong contender –I'd put his odds at maybe 4 in 10 [of defeating Whitehouse],” Profughi said. “Given his name recognition and visibility he could probably get by with 3 million for the general election, where normally 4 million or so will be required to be credible.”
Tea Party Leader: Doherty Would Be Great
Colleen Conley, head of the Rhode Island Tea Party, said she is keeping a close eye on how the 2012 Senate race shapes up. She acknowledged that Carcieri would likely run, but said she was intrigued by the idea of Doherty stepping up.
“I think he has a lot of respect amongst the Tea Party, “ Conley said. “It will be interesting to see who decides to run, but I do think Brendan Doherty could raise enough money.”
Whoever does represent the Republicans in 2012 will have an uphill battle, according to Conley. She said Senator Whitehouse’s favorable ratings have risen considerably in the last year, so it might be difficult to defeat him.
Conley said the Tea Party would definitely get behind Carcieri or Doherty, but when asked about other potential candidates like Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian, she said her group would not be nearly as supportive.
“Oh god no,” she said when asked about Mayor Avedisian. “The Team Party would not go for that.”
Young Republican: Three Prime Contenders
Travis Rowley, President of the Rhode Island Young Republicans, said he hasn't thrown his support behind any candidate, but believes Caricieri and Doherty and John Robitaille could all pose a challenge to Whitehouse.
"I think we have three great options," Rowley said. "I would be OK with any of those guys."
Rowley said that while Carcieri has the brand name and Doherty has everyone talking, Robitaille might surprise everyone.
"John has a lot of supporters after the Governor's race," he said. "He brought a lot of people together."
Statehouse Insider: National Money Is The Key
Ken McKay, the favorite to be named Chairman of the state GOP, will play a major role in clearing the field if Carcieri or Doherty decides to run, according to one Statehouse source.
The source said Carcieri, Doherty and former Gubernatorial candidate John Robitaille would be in the best position to raise money from the national party if any of them were to declare because they have the best name recognition.
“Don Carcieri is the ideal candidate,” the source said. “He’s the guy the national party would want because he’s got the money and the star power.”
The source said if Carcieri doesn’t run, there is likely to be a host of fringe Republican candidates that will pop up, but he said McKay is the right guy to help unite the party.
Progressive Leader: Whitehouse Will Win
But Brian Hull, the State Coordinator for the Rhode Island Progressive Democrats and editor of the Rhode Island’s Future blog, said he believes Senator Whitehouse should be able to withstand any Republican challenge next year.
Hull cited a recent poll that had Whitehouse a double digit leader over his potential opponents and said “any hypothetical threat to his reelection is slim at best.”
“In sharp contrast to the rest of the nation, RI became a more progressive state with the election of great progressive champions like Blazejewski, Tanzi, Cimini, Bennett, and O'Grady,” Hull said. “Cicilline pulled out an impressive victory over Loughlin and Taveras had a strong showing in the Providence Mayor's race. Progressives in the state are getting better organized and with Whitehouse again winning the distinction of most liberal Senator, the progressive community will not turn its back on him in 2012. I'm fairly comfortable predicting a win for Whitehouse next year. I know I'm going to bust my ass for him.”
Brendan Doherty photo credit: NBC 10
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