Jacobs: Pell Wins the Primary: The Prediction No One Else Dares to Make

Friday, August 15, 2014

Jonathan Jacobs, GoLocalProv Guest MINDSETTER™

 

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Clay Pell is going to win the Democratic Primary election on September 9. There, I said it. In spite of the media’s regular diminishing of his legitimacy, Pell has run one of the smartest campaigns I have, in my thirty-six years in these United States (thirty of them here in Little Rhody) ever seen.

Media Influence

Local media has undeniably, until very recently, given him short-shrift. Media coverage often implies that Clay Pell is merely an afterthought. He has been painted as one who is not creditable of the same level of newsworthiness as Raimondo and Taveras because news thrives on drama and drama is synonymous with conflict and Pell has avoided the trench warfare between the two “top shelf” candidates who have been lobbing political hand-grenades at one another since long before their respective hard announcements of candidacy for Governor.

And, while this drama feeds the voracious appetite by both the media and the public for blood-sport, Pell has been parrying the few glancing thrusts at him by turning the attacks back toward Taveras and Raimondo.  By allowing the Treasurer and the Mayor to cut one another to ribbons, Clay Pell, the youngest of the gubernatorial candidates, has presented a level of poise and maturity contrasting the politics-as-usual negativity that makes the others appear as childish scrappers on the schoolyard.

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Strategy

Pell entered the race with a very difficult task. How does one with no experience in elected office, earn the trust of Rhode Island voters in such a short time? The answer is by not earning their distrust. Rhode Islanders show a level of distrust in government surpassed only by Illinois. Illinois, mind you, has had four of the last seven governors serve time in prison. All Clay Pell has to do is avoid earning the distrust that has infected the state like a virus of political cynicism and anger.

How does he do this? He does not accept PAC contributions. He does not accept state lobbyist contributions. He is largely self-funded. Therefore, Clay Pell has proven himself to take action to reform pay-to-play politics prior to entering office. He is beholden to no one. And, aside from an early and widely over-sensationalized incident involving a missing hybrid automobile, he has kept his Coast Guard uniform clean and pressed. He has not shied away from his inexperience as a politician. Rather, Pell has stressed the fact that he is not a politician. Rhode Islanders overwhelmingly dislike politicians. How often does one hear a fellow Rhode Islanders say something like, “We should get rid of all of the politicians up there and start over!” hmm?

He has also surrounded himself with a remarkable team of campaign experts, both local and national. His grassroots field organization is led by Organize for Action veteran operatives from 2012 battleground states won by President Obama. His campaign leadership is a young but experienced team of the next generation of America’s Democratic machine. Everyone talks about attracting talent to Rhode Island to win back a healthy economy. Clay Pell did that with his campaign team. He kept the best, brought back the best and attracted the best. At this stage of a campaign, grassroots, volunteer, ground game is what wins elections. There is no stronger game on the ground of dedicated volunteers than Pell’s organization.

Opposition

Mayor Taveras:

His campaign is showing foundational cracks. A comparably lackluster fund raising ability combined with a job left unfinished as Mayor of Providence has left Taveras as a a battle-weary candidate with a campaign that is crumbling. He appears as a candidate  without a central message on which to stand in the political wind blowing from both sides. The Head start to Harvard story was remarkably successful when he won office in 2010. This time, however, it has exhausted its supply of appealing pathos.

Much like his predecessor, Angel Taveras chose to use the second half of his first term as a launchpad for higher office. That is probably the single biggest mistake he made as mayor. Angel Taveras decided not to finish the job. Had he run for a second term as mayor, he would have cruised to victory. Rather, Angel chose to run for governor. After a single term in an office in a city at a time in which success can only be determined by proving a negative - the economy didn’t get worse - Mayor Taveras abandoned full focus on what’s best for the city and split his focus on what’s best for the city and what’s best for his campaign.

When I spoke with the Mayor just under one month ago, he told me that a campaign only goes negative when they know they are losing ground. At the time he was referring to Raimondo's advertisement attacking his record. Less than three weeks later, he launched the negative ad against Pell. The ad swung at Clay's ethos with “nine jobs in eight years … internships” accusations. This tack taken by the Taveras camp backfired. People did not respond well to the less than subtle “Wizard of Oz” tactic of draining the color from the opposition and technicolor vibrancy of himself. The Mayor did not move the needle in his favor.

General Treasurer Raimondo:

Raimondo, on the other hand, has stuffed her war chest with contributions from Wall Street’s pillars of financial houses of worship, as well as the hottest up-and-coming wealth management agencies nationwide. A cross-reference of CNBC’s online article on “The Best Places to Work on Wall Street” with Gina Raimondo’s Campaign Finance Contributors revealed a striking percentage of common names and employment entities. All it cost her was the key to the public sector’s pension fund piggy bank for her neo-gilded age colleagues to raid for their own personal gain. While it is debatable whether or not her solution of the unfunded pension liability actually shored up the future of the retirement security for public sector employees, the taxpayers of Rhode Island are on the hook for a yet to be determined amount for a court battle over the pensions with the unions.

There is no denying that her spending ability is greater than that of her competitors. This is why she is able to pay her canvassers and her phone banking team. If my prediction about Pell is proven false, it will be Madam Treasurer who makes me eat my words. She has the best campaign money can buy. But money cannot always buy the best campaign.

Gina Raimondo is a brilliant politician. She is an excellent opportunist. She is unsurpassed in her ambition. She is a chameleon, changing from the bike-riding, meatloaf-making, family mom, to the fist-pumping, union-busting, national financial wonder as quickly as she changes from pink wool to blue linen, based on the subliminal psychology of the color spectrum on the audience with whom she happens to have scheduled in any given day. What Gina Raimondo lacks, however, is trust. She is, on paper, an excellent choice. But digging just below the surface shows her to be an ambitious arm of investment interests, using Rhode Island as a laboratory. Gina Raimondo is smart enough and ambitious enough to spin the raiding of state pension funds for the purpose of maintaining income inequality. Without such well planned and promoted inequality, the rich cannot get richer and the working poor will not continue to vote for the rich getting richer.

Allow me to make one more prediction. Manufacturing is not coming back to Rhode Island as a cornerstone of job creation. If you believe otherwise, I have a bridge you may want to buy. And it doesn't bear the name of a Pell.

A Fresh Perspective

Pell is too young. He is not a life long Rhode Islander. He is not a battle tested politician. He will not have the spine to stand up to the General Assembly. Sound familiar? These are the criticisms that are often used when undermining Pell's qualifications as governor.

They are legitimate concerns.  I asked them, myself, when pondering the clouds in my crystal ball. Ted Nesi's recent article clears the record with regard to Pell's credentials. There is no need to rehash his extensive and impressive resume. Spine? He has shown he is able to grow his support and build his remarkable momentum without throwing punches, thus far. To paraphrase what Pell told me, quoting his late grandfather, the Senator, “The secret is to always let the other man have your way.” As the only Coast Guard officer on a Marine Corps base, Pell's job as a prosecuting attorney was to persuade Marines to testify against other Marines. The man has backbone.

Is he a real Rhode Islander? In a global generation, does that really matter? The real Rhode Islanders running the state now can brag that the state's number one export is other Rhode Islanders. With his education and credentials, Clay Pell could have done anything. With his personal fortune, Clay Pell could have done nothing. Instead he chose to returnto Rhode Island to use the advantages he was given to realize a fresh perspective for the state and that is something the other Democratic Primary candidates for governor simply cannot provide. Pell and his campaign are exactly what the other candidates are not: more of the same. That is why he is going to win. He is not playing politics. He is proposing change.

Oh, by the way, there was another man who was elected governor of a state when he was only thirty two years old. The state was Arkansas. The man was Bill Clinton.

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Jonathan Jacobs is a government relations consultant, campaign strategist, communications coordinator, and political operative. A Rhode Island native, Jonathan lives in Providence with his wife and two children. Recently admitted to law school, Jonathan is deferring enrollment until fall of 2015.

 

Related Slideshow: 10 Questions Pell Has to Answer When Running for Gov of RI

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10. Pell's Base?

Where is Pell’s voter base going to come from?

It is difficult to identify Clay Pell’s base beyond a few prep school chums (in California) and the lovely people who live on Bellevue Avenue in Newport.  
 
Every winning candidate needs a core base to leverage to win.
 
Taveras is counting, in part, on the Hispanic community as his base.
 
Raimondo is working to solidify two core groups – women and fiscal conservative Democrats.
 
Pell, who is both wooing and being wooed by progressives and public sector unions (see #6), must grow beyond the group the summers in Newport.
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9. Seriously

Seriously – Another No Private Sector Experience Governor?

Voters should understand that two sources of revenue have funded Clay Pell’s adult life – the federal government and trust funds.  His public service in the Coast Guard is admirable, but Clay Pell has never had to worry about: 
 
Mortgage, rent, car, health insurance, groceries, credit card, electric, oil/gas, telephone, cable, cellphone, college loans, tuition, or even yacht payments.  
 
They were all taken care of before his own birth.
 
He has to convince voters that he is credible.
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8. Decision making

Has he ever had to make an executive decision?

There is no indication that Clay Pell has ever had to make a significant management decision in his life. We all saw how David Cicilline struggled with managing Providence’s budget – Mayor’s offices and Governor’s offices are tough places for on-the-job learning.
 
Like their decision making or not, both Taveras and Raimondo have had to make executive decisions – Pell is going to need to assure voter he can make management decisions (See tough decisions below).
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7. Ordinary RIers

Can Pell connect to Rhode Islanders?

Most of the places Clay Pell spent his formative years, Rhode Islanders have not experienced.  The reason why – they are private clubs, top-flight private schools and colleges. The Thacher School to Harvard to Georgetown Law School.  Each of these premier schools has an annual tuition of more than $50,000 a year.
 
While Pell may claim to be committed to “ordinary” people (as he said in a WJAR interview), he needs to demonstrate that he is can understand the plight of unemployed and underemployed Rhode Islanders.
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6. Progressives

Progressives and Unions are in Love with Pell, is that good for RI?

Two powerful and influential groups in the Democratic primary are progressives and public service unions. With Rhode Island’s unemployment the worst in the United States and the economy, de facto, still in the recession, the next Governor will have many difficult decisions. 
 
The decisions will include difficult budget choices – not likely to be popular with public sector unions and progressives.
 
As the Wall Street Journal wrote this week, "...makes him attractive to public unions who are likely to spend heavily in the primary. Robert Walsh, the executive director of the National Education Association Rhode Island, has already welcomed Mr. Pell's entry into the race. "Suddenly, an opportunity appears."
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5. Kwan Factor

Is he more than Michelle Kwan’s husband?

Rhode Islanders love a good celebrity and Clay Pell’s wife Michelle Kwan is certainly a celebrity. She won her first ice-skating World Championship in 1996 when she was just 15 years old. And had qualified for the Olympics in 1994 at age 13 only to be bumped by the recovering Nancy Kerrigan.
 
The two-time Olympian Kwan will wow Rhode Island during the campaign, but will she overshadow her husband?
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4. Claiborne Factor

Is he more than Claiborne Pell’s Grandson?

The venerable Claiborne de Borna Pell retired from the United States Senate nearly two decades ago. While older voters may be fond of the deceased Senator’s legacy – many Rhode Islanders were not old enough to vote or did not live in the state when Pell was in office.
 
While the Pell family name may have some limited impact and young Clay Pell’s campaign will dredge up lots of legacy stories (so many you may think Clay was the author of the legislation creating the Pell grants).
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3. GOP Factor

Can Pell beat a Republican?

Pell’s ability to skate between Raimondo and Taveras to win the Democratic primary in a coalition of union and progressive’s support will force him to win from the left.
 
Coming out of the primary will have defined him to the general election voter as a liberal of the highest degree. Brookings Institute Vice President Darrell West recently told an audience during a speech at the Newport Art Museum that progressives are back in vogue (citing the recent election of ultra progressive Bill deBlasio as Mayor of New York), but with Rhode Island’s economy stuck in a recession, Pell may have a difficult time convincing voters in the General Election that he is viable.
 
Remember in the past five elections – Rhode Islanders have elected Republicans to the Governor’s office four times (Almond twice, Carcieri twice) and in the last election while a liberal Lincoln Chafee won, more than 60% of the voters cast a ballot for the conservative Frank Caprio (D), GOP candidate John Robitaille or the business leaning Moderate Party candidate Ken Block.
 
Either GOP candidate will be able to paint Pell as too liberal for the challenges facing Rhode Island’s stagnant economy (9.1% unemployment).
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2. Experience, any?

Does Pell have any experience?

Pell graduated from law school in 2008. That is right; Clay Pell has only been out of school for 5 plus years.
 
It is hard to believe that his experience in Coast Guard as a junior officer and his White House Fellowship qualifies him to be the chief executive of a state – he has never managed senior staff (he has never been senior staff), never managed employees of any significant scale, he has never managed a major budget, and he has zero economic development experience – a trait that some voters might look for after Chafee’s term.
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1. Tough Enough?

Is Pell tough enough?

Both Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras demonstrated in the past three plus years in office the ability to make “tough” decisions.  
 
Taveras had to clean up the Cicilline budget mess that had nearly bankrupted the City of Providence and Taveras even fired all the teachers in the Capital City. Of course, he walked that dog backwards during the following months ensuring a lack of trust with both teachers and fiscal conservatives.  
 
Raimondo’s pension reform effort has drawn passionate support and venomous scorn.  Regardless, it has demonstrated Raimondo is battle tested.
 
Pell’s professional career is not only short (5 plus years), but also been advisory – the buck has never stopped at Clay Pell’s cubicle.
 
 

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