Pam Gencarella: It’s Easy to Vote for Santa

Thursday, September 04, 2014

 

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With the primaries only a few short days away, a hard look at the gubernatorial candidates is imperative for those who will vote.  Because it is so obviously the most important issue for RI, every candidate speaks to creating jobs and improving the economy.  But we all know that government doesn’t create jobs.  Its only role is to create the economic landscape that invites new business and encourages existing businesses to grow.

So it is incumbent upon us, as voters, to understand how each of the candidates intends to create that landscape.  Saying that you will create jobs won’t make it so.  Everyone knows the drill.  RI has a ridiculously large budget for a state this size, it is in debt up to its eyeballs and even with the extraordinarily large budget, the state has built in overspending of $1 billion in just the next four years.  So what’s a fella or gal to do?

It’s easy to promise everyone everything - more jobs, better infrastructure, improved schools, more giveaways.  But when the rubber meets the road, who is talking about how to fund these initiatives and, if they are talking about how to fund them, are they just indebting future generations to do it or are they rearranging the deck chairs, creating more bureaucracy?  It’s all well and good to provide funding for infrastructure, but is more debt the answer?  It’s very important to improve our education system, but does that mean more taxes? 

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We have seen what stimulating the economy has done for RI.  Throwing money into “shovel ready” jobs did nothing but create temporary positions which ultimately left people unemployed.  How much of that was provided by financing that our children (if they stay) will be paying for in the future?  When cities and towns are drowning in both recorded debt as well as unfunded pension and healthcare benefits, is even low interest financing the answer?  Or when talking about creating internships, don’t you need businesses in which to place them?  Access to capital is great, but if it costs too much to run a company, the money runs out.  What then?

The only resolution to RI’s problems is reducing the exploding budget.  Does your candidate have a plan to do that?  Once the budget is under control, then priorities can be set to allocate those limited resources.  It’s not magic, it’s just difficult.  But it needs to be done and it needs to be done first.  When companies and entrepreneurs see that RI has taken control of its budget and removed the barriers that strangle businesses, the world will open up to us.  The I 195 project won’t be the albatross it is quickly becoming.  Businesses won’t avoid RI like the plague.    

Phrases like “lead the effort ...” or “support the establishment of/efforts of...” or “encourage the (name the institution)” or “raise awareness of...” will not make for a better business environment.  Reducing the cost of doing business and reducing the red tape will.

All of the candidates have posted a plan on their respective websites.  Take a look and if you don’t see the answer to the question on how to fund initiatives, call them.  That’s what their campaign headquarters are for - providing the voters with answers.

If you are an unaffiliated voter, you will have two decisions to make - deciding on the primary in which to vote and deciding on the candidate who comes closest to creating the landscape in which businesses will jump at the chance to either move here or expand.  There will be no need to provide access to capital then.  In a free market economy, capital moves to the most inviting location all on its own.

Your current elected officials passed a plan that includes overspending of $1 billion in the next four years.  Is that something you have accepted or do you reject the notion of overspending, more taxes and more debt?  Is your candidate going to continue to use the taxpayer as an ATM?  Is he/she going to exceed the limits on the charge card?  When you step in that voting booth, the choice really is up to you.  We need a governor with a better vision.  So next Tuesday, when you head to the polls, remember, there really is no Santa Claus. 

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Pam Gencarella is a member of OSTPA, a taxpayer advocacy organization in Rhode Island.

 

Related Slideshow: Primary Elections Results That May Predict the 2014 Outcomes

Are past primaries a prediction of future elections?  See examples in Rhode Island voting history -- and that the biggest predictor might come down to turnout.
 

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1990 Dem Gov's Race

1990 Democratic Primary Governor's Race

Providence was on the cover of Newsweek magazine in 1990 as one of America's Hottest Cities and its then Mayor Joe Paolino raised millions on his way to the State House.  But along the way, Warwick Mayor and now Supreme Court Judge Frank Flaherty and two-time loser Bruce Sundlun got in the way.

Paolino -- the front-runner -- finished third, and in key cities like Cranston he only won 21% of the Democratic vote, and in Warwick, it was just 13%.

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Primary Turnout - Dems

Governor's Democratic Primary Turnout

In 2002, the Democrats faced a three-way battle ultimately won by Myrth York. Total turnout among the three high profile Democrats (York, now U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, and then-House Finance Committee Chair Tony Pires) was 119,524 votes.

That number pales to the 1990 Democratic Governor's primary which recorded 167,916 total votes (Sundlun, Flaherty and Paolino).

The 2002 turnout was nearly 30% lower than 1990.

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Primary Turnout - GOP

GOP Races Turnout Very Widely (Too)

The three most contested races for the GOP nomination for Governor show two things - turnout can very greatly (see next slide for the other).

In 1992, Mike Levesque lost to Elizabeth Leonard - the total vote in that primary was just 14,460.  Levesque, the former GOP Chairman, won just under 48% of the vote.

In 1996, the turnout in the GOP primary jumped by 300% to 45,023 votes cast. Ron Machtley, who lost badly in the primary to Lincoln Almond, received substantially more votes than both GOP candidates did in 1992. Machtley won 18,150 votes (40%) to Almond's 26,873 (60%).

In 1992, independents voted in the Democratic primary and in 1994, independents swung over to the GOP race.

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Endorsement Curse

Being Endorsed in the GOP Race: Kiss of Death?

In the past 22 plus years the GOP has had three bruising primaries for Governor and each time the endorsed candidate lost.

In 1992: Mike Levesque (endorsed) lost to Elizabeth Leonard

In 1994: Ron Machtley (endorsed) lost to Lincoln Almond

In 2002: Jim Bennett (endorsed) lost to Don Carcieri

In 2014, Allan Fung is the endorsed GOP candidate for Governor

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Cranston and Warwick

Warwick and Cranston Really Matter

While Providence is the Capitol City and has the largest population, those that win Warwick and Cranston win. In every nearly every race for Governor, the candidate that takes the second and third largest cities takes wins the primary.

Moreover, there is little correlation between winning Providence and success in Warwick and Cranston. The invert may be the case. The 1990 Democratic primary is the perfect example, Providence Mayor Joe Paolino won Providence, but only received 13% of the vote in Warwick and 21% in Cranston. Paolino won 13,782 votes in Providence. Frank Flaherty won 14,484 in Cranston and Warwick and finished second in the primary.

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Unions and Turnout

Unions and Turnout

Conventional wisdom is that the Democrat with the strongest union support will win especially in a smaller turnout. This may not always be true. In 1990, Paolino had the most union endorsements. In 2002, Sheldon Whitehouse was the union candidate and finished with just 38.4% of the Democratic primary vote and losing to Myrth York. 

The turnout in the Democratic primary was suppressed from the 1990 high of 167,916 - a decrease of nearly 50,000 votes. Yet, despite the lower turnout, unions failed to push Whitehouse over the top.

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Women Candidates

Can Women Win Tight Primaries -- and the General Election?

Myrth York won the tough 2002 primary for the Democratic nod for Governor. Elizabeth Leonard beat Mike Levesque in 1990, but both lost in the General Elections.

York lost three times running for Governor in 1994 and 1998 to Lincoln Almond and again in 2002 to Don Carcieri.  No woman has won the Governor's office or a United States Senate seat in RI.  Republican Claudine Schneider served in Congress from 1981 to 1991 and is the only woman to represent the state in Congress.

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Bonus

Bonus From Our Research: John, Jack and Gio

Two of Rhode Island's best known names both won their primaries, but failed to get 50% of the race in 3 or 4 way contests.

Jack (John) Reed won the 1990 4-way Democratic Congressional primary with 49% of the vote. Reed bested Ed Beard, Rod Driver and Charlie Gifford. Reed went on to beat Trudy Coxe in the General Election.

Gio (John) Feroce of Alex and Ani and now Benrus fame was the GOP candidate for Lt. Governor in 1994. Feroce won 45% of the vote in a 3-way beating Robert Plante and Gloria Nerney. Feroce lost to Bob Weygand.

 
 

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