On The Ropes: What Next For Congressman Cicilline
Monday, May 23, 2011
He serves in one of the most solidly Democratic districts in the country, but barely five months into his term, Congressman David Cicilline’s chances of being reelected appear to be slim at best if recent polls are any indication.
Cicilline showed little gains in a WPRI poll featuring 300 registered voters from the 1st Congressional District last week. The freshman Congressman trailed both of his potential Republican opponents (John Loughlin and Brendan Doherty) by double digits and when it comes to the dreaded unfavorable category, he found himself at 57 percent.
But is it safe to count out an incumbent that can raise the necessary funds, knows how to campaign and still appears to have the Democratic establishment standing firmly behind him?
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The Cicilline campaign says not so fast.
In a statement to GoLocalProv, campaign spokesperson Nicole Kaynor cited the constant media attention being paid to Providence’s deteriorating fiscal condition as the reason for his poor performance in the polls.
Darrell West, Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C., agreed with Kaynor’s assessment, blaming the big anti-Cicilline sentiment for his ratings.
“Cicilline's polls don't look good at this point,” West said. “But keep in mind that early polls are assessing the Congressman against himself and it is clear there is a big anti-Cicilline sentiment out there regardless of the opposition.”
Cicilline Still Has Time
When asked multiple times over the past two months, West has continuously said Cicilline’s chances of winning reelection will down to his ability to paint his opponents in a negative light, comparing them with some of the more far-right Republicans serving in the House. The main idea: “You may not like me, but you don’t want Paul Ryan representing the 1st District either.”
West said Cicilline has plenty of time to attack his conservative opponents.
“The Congressman has a year and a half to paint a negative view of the national Republican Party and tie the local nominee to Speaker [John] Boehner and Congressman Ryan's Medicare plan,” West said. “When he does that and has President Obama on the ballot right above himself, that will level the political playing field.”
Establishment Support
Having President Obama on the ballot has long been considered the saving grace for many vulnerable Congressman representing blue states. According to Quest Research pollster Victor Profughi, Obama’s 65 % - 33 % 2008 victory in the 1st Congressional District was among the largest in the country.
Profughi estimates that turnout could be as much as 35 percent higher in 2012 than it was last November, which could go both ways for Cicilline. If the larger number of voters benefits him, it will be because of his support from within the Democratic Party. Already RI Democratic Party Chairman Ed Pacheco has backed Cicilline and leadership in the Young Democrats (the group that helps lead the ground effort in many elections) appears to be firmly behind the Congressman.
“David Cicilline is our Congressman in the First District, and the Young Democrats support him fully,” Young Democrats Chairman David Graziano said. “His role is to represent the interests of Rhode Islanders in Washington. His Make it in America block grant, would bring manufacturing jobs back to RI, now is the time to be standing with him as he faces opposition to a bill that would be meaningful to RI. A primary is a long way away; he's got a job to do for us in D.C. Let's let him do that.”
Gemma: Dems Should Do The Right Thing
Profughi said it is “inconceivable that [Cicilline] will go unchallenged in a September primary” given his low approval ratings. The only candidate to step up publicly and express interest in running is Anthony Gemma, who lost to Cicilline in a four-way primary last November.
Gemma, who has not made his candidacy official yet, says the state’s Democratic establishment should back off its support for the incumbent Congressman. He says Democrats are simply handing the seat to Republicans by doing so.
“I’d love for Democrats, both young and old, to do the right thing for the party,” Gemma said. “It’s frustrating to get the people to see the light. They should take a step down [because] it taints the rest of the party.”
Don’t Count Him Out Yet
But while Profughi acknowledges that Cicilline is on the hot seat, he says the Congressman still has one distinct advantage over his opponents, both in a primary and in the general election: Resources.
“Of the three campaign resources (time, money, and talent), only time can begin on an even plain,” Profughi said. “As for money, last election Cicilline outspent his November opponent better than 2-1. While it may not take $2 million to beat him this year, it will certainly take at least $1 million well spent, target dollars. And Cicilline will certainly have his ground game and talent in place. His opposition will need effective and efficient micro targeting to match a seasoned veteran campaigner.”
And time is still on the Congressman’s side. Profughi pointed to Ronald Reagan’s once-dismal approval ratings before he stormed back to win 49 of 50 states in 1984.
“Congressman Cicilline is no Ronald Reagan,” he said. “But he shouldn’t be counted out just yet with the elections still a year and a half away.”
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