NH GOP Debate - Winners and Losers
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Winners in Tuesday night’s debate are the candidates that either managed to maintain their place or who might gain from the debate’s losers in national polls.
On the losing side: Governor Rick Perry’s flash-in-the-pan moment crystallized at Dartmouth College while Herman Cain’s economic plan was battered as unlikely to galvanize support in New Hampshire.
Senator Rick Santorum scored during the debate by asking Granite Staters how they’d like Cain’s national sales tax. As a state with no sales or income tax, elements of Cain’s plan are anathema to New Hampshire’s fiscal instincts. This moment might not translate into national polls right away… but keep your eye on New Hampshire over the next few weeks: it is unlikely Cain will continue gaining traction in local polls if other candidates seize on this and continue the political pummeling that began in earnest last night.
No matter what Florida does, until we’re through the New Hampshire primary, national polls won’t matter.
Despite Santorum’s punch, it’s unclear how he will gain from this: in every debate he has shown signs of momentum but these haven’t translated into gains in polls – nationally nor in New Hampshire.
Santorum’s gains at debates are quickly undone by a statement or another: a collective but modest gasp filled the Spaulding Auditorium at Dartmouth College as Santorum described his desire to ‘go to war with China’ – most audience members probably understood what Santorum meant, but the abundant, spinnable, sound-bite possibilities filled this largely Republican audience with plenty of general election concerns.
Huntsman framed this issue well: other candidates questioned Cain’s idealism and naiveté following Huntsman’s statement about the 9-9-9 plan. Congressman Ron Paul was probably the exception as he pointed out Cain’s “insider” status during a discussion of the Federal Reserve – an accusation Cain legitimized by offering Alan Greenspan as beacon of Federal Reserve Chairmanship.
Huntsman’s biggest challenge in debates is to stand out: moderators at this debate should have asked Governor Huntsman to tackle questions about China first – certainly before Romney did – given his extensive experience in the region.
Bachmann Misstep
Congresswoman Michele Bachmann was holding up fine until she decided to throw a contrived zinger during her attack on Herman Cain’s economic plan: Bachmann suggested Cain’s 9-9-9 could be inverted to state” 6-6-6,” a number often associated with biblical evils – and although she did this in jest, the damage was done. It’s hard to imagine the member of Bachmann’s team that crafted this being afforded the opportunity to think of new ideas for the next debate.
Gingrich continued playing the role of unifier at the table. At this juncture, it is clear Speaker Gingrich believes all candidates in the primary are capable of beating President Barack Obama, which raises the question of why he is still running. This is not to say the former Congressman doesn’t contribute some of the best ideas at the table but that his universal approval to the GOP candidates for the nomination could use a more competitive streak if he really plans to court enough support to win the nomination.
Mitt Romney and Ron Paul held up – and in Romney’s case this is good news. The bad news is that New Hampshire will still be the first-in-the-nation primary: 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place in the polls has shifted quite a bit, with Huntsman making progress at a good pace while Perry has been on a consistent drop since he first rolled out his campaign effort.
Eventually, as candidates begin to drop out their supporters will decide who else to support. Unless Romney was already clocking in at more than 50% in all polls, it’s reasonable to say these voters could line up with whomever they perceive is ready to give Romney a real run for his money.
But let’s be clear about one thing: despite the pummeling that Cain took, and the shifting numbers for candidates who are still lagging behind Romney, it is Perry whose ship has clearly sailed. The excitement is not there and he really doesn’t offer any presence on the debate stage. His supporters know they’re in trouble; with the long list of debates that are planned the prognosis doesn’t look good for the Governor from Texas.
Huntsman is hanging steady nationally: his debate performance will probably help him in New Hampshire polls (mentioning local constituents and framing the impact of our national economic woes through local examples is smart). Bachmann is holding steady but her ‘Number of the Beast’ faux pas won’t help: especially in the Granite State, where her absence on the campaign trail has caused many to write her off. Perry could have skipped this debate. Cain is clearly the target of the other candidates, who understand his 9-9-9 plan will not appeal to New Hampshire voters. Romney, Paul, Gingrich, and Santorum left last night’s debate status quo. With the next debate a week away, the dynamics might play out similarly – unless the format, which seems to be open to questions on any subject, presents the tipping point for a heated debate on religion.
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