Jencunas: What Matters & What Doesn’t in Trump’s Falling Poll Numbers
Monday, February 13, 2017
When the media talks about polls it almost always means national surveys. This is what Democrats are using to celebrate Trump’s low approval rating. Just like in the 2016 election, those polls are mostly useless to understand the current political situation.
Hillary Clinton led the national polls by an average of 3.2% and won the national popular vote by 2.1%. The polls were accurate, they just weren’t meaningful because Trump’s strength was concentrated in the swing states and the three Rust Belt states that he flipped from Democrat to Republican for the first time since 1988. These states had more of the white-working class voters who backed Trump in record numbers and fewer of the college-educated, affluent Republicans, who were most likely to defect from their party. National polls weren’t predictive then and that hasn’t changed since Election Day.
It’s true that Trump’s approval rating started at historic lows and has become even worse. After only eight days, his disapproval rating had risen above 50% in Gallup’s daily tracking poll. His approval rating has fallen into the low 40s, which is where it was during most of the Presidential campaign. Trump’s current 40% approval rating is only three points better than Bill Clinton’s lowest ever rating. These numbers are terrible, especially since President’s usually have their best poll numbers at the beginning of their administration, before they alienate voters by spending political capital to pass controversial laws. This will be bad for Republicans in blue states, like Massachusetts’ Charlie Baker and whoever emerges to challenge Gina Raimondo in Rhode Island, who don’t want to be tied to an unpopular GOP President, but it won’t hurt Trump’s reelection chances or his ability to govern.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTTo be informed consumers of public opinion data, people should look at the trends from poll to poll, especially with the demographic groups key to Trump’s success – the white working class independents and the upscale, affluent Republicans. Losing either group would be a real threat not just to the President, but also to Congressional Republicans. The GOP is hoping to pick up Senate seats in states like West Virginia, Missouri, and Indiana where Trump won with record support among the white working class. In the House of Representatives, Democrats want to target the 23 Republican-held districts that voted for Hillary Clinton. That means in the House races, the Democrats will want to win over the anti-Trump affluent voters by tying Republicans to the unpopular President. Meanwhile in the Senate, the Democrats will need to hold white working-class support.
Right now, this puts them in an unenviable paradox where lockstep opposition to Trump will hurt them in the Senate but help with the House and compromising with Trump will have the opposite effect. This becomes a lot easier if Trump’s numbers worsen with either demographic group. In that case, opposition is a clear electoral winner since losses among one kind of voter will be made up by gains with the other group.
The other important polling information about Trump is his support versus Paul Ryan with Republican primary voters. The Congressional Republican leadership disagrees with Trump on trade, immigration, and his pro-Russia pivot in foreign policy. Since the Democrats are powerless in Congress, this dynamic will determine if Trump can enact his agenda untrammeled by his own party or whether he needs to move more towards the traditional Republican ideology.
In today’s polarized political climate, most elected officials are more afraid of a party primary than a general election opponent. Since the surprising defeat of Republican incumbents by Tea Party challengers in 2010 and David Brat’s anti-immigration driven defeat of Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Republicans are especially frightened of an intraparty challenge. The last eight years have made Republicans distrustful of their own leaders, who conservative activists blame for failing to block enough of Obama’s agenda. This is why John Boehner struggled to control his own party and why he ultimately resigned the speakership. It’s why, in 2016, for the first time in history, Congress had a lower approval rating from supporters of the party in power (Republicans) than supporters of the minority party. It’s why local Republican activists prefer self-described extremists to centrists by a 10:1 margin and even believe extremists are more likely to win general elections than centrists. If that doesn’t change, GOP elected officials will be in for a tough primary if they oppose Trump.
This is the poll data that matters – trends within the key demographic groups and the attitudes of Republican primary voters. The national survey data that fills cable news and gleeful liberal Facebook posts is simply a popular distraction.
Brian Jencunas works as a communications and media consultant. He can be reached at [email protected] and always appreciates reader feedback.
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