Horowitz: Jim Webb, Former US Senator and Genuine War Hero, Tests Presidential Waters

Tuesday, December 02, 2014

Rob Horowitz, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

 

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Rob Horowitz

With the 2014 mid-term elections now behind us, media attention is beginning to shift to the next big national contest-the 2016 Presidential election. What is shaping up as a wide open contest on the Republican side with candidates ranging from Senators Rand Paul and Marco Rubio to Governors Chris Christie, Scott Walker and John Kasich to former Governor Jeb Bush is garnering the lion’s share of coverage so far. 

Hillary Clinton’s status as a strong, if not commanding, frontrunner seems to have prevented conventionally formidable Democratic candidates, with proven abilities to raise the money required, such as Governor Andrew Cuomo or Senator Elizabeth Warren, from entering the race. Yet, there remains a large potential opening for a candidate with new ideas and fresh thinking who can convincingly argue that they come from outside the Washington establishment.

There is a long history of Democratic candidates who started out with little or no national name recognition, winning or coming close to getting the nomination against much better known and more heavily favored contenders by running as the candidate of change who is not part of the inside Washington crowd. Even if you want to discount President Obama’s victory over Clinton in the last contested Democratic nomination fight because of his outsized political gifts, unique ability to quickly nail down a big political base, and fundraising ability, consider that Gary Hart came an inch or so from knocking off former Vice-President and labor favorite Walter Mondale, and Jimmy Carter was an unknown former Governor of Georgia when the 1976 nomination contest began.

A change-oriented, new ideas campaign is likely to be especially resonant this time, given the strong dissatisfaction with Washington business as usual. As a long-time political establishment figure, Hillary Clinton is vulnerable to that kind of challenge—more vulnerable perhaps than to a challenge from the progressive left from someone like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who is contemplating a run. An ideologically-based challenge is in some ways easier to handle because the front runner can move a bit on their issue positions to neutralize the opponent. Further, Hillary Clinton, while not as liberal as some would like, certainly has her progressive credentials.

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This brings me to former Virginia Senator Jim Webb whose recentl formation of a Presidential exploratory committee was mainly greeted by yawns from the national press corps and punditry.  Too easily dismissing Webb’s candidacy, ignores the fact that he possesses the independence, backbone and resume to possibly become the ‘change, anti-establishment, new ideas’ candidate of 2016. Webb’s wide-ranging biography paints the picture: genuine decorated combat Veteran, Secretary of the Navy under Reagan, accomplished writer of both fiction and non-fiction, articulate and credible opponent of the Iraq War and what he views as American Foreign Policy overreach.    
 
Webb’s message so far focuses on restoring American opportunity and fairness—standing up for the shrinking and hard pressed American middle class. In his new memoir, Webb writes,   “America was founded on a rebellion against royalty in whatever form it might reveal itself, and on a guarantee that mere wealth should never be allowed to dictate the political direction of the country.  Nothing would doom the American Dream more quickly than the establishment of a permanent, removed aristocracy, and quite frankly we are on the brink of allowing exactly that to happen… It is not political bomb-throwing to point out the truth that those who wish to preserve this uncomfortable tilting of the table against our working people have the most money to spend on a wide variety of political fronts, while others who wish for more fundamental fairness lack the financial resources to back up their concerns, causing them to lose their influence in the corridors of power. Having spent most of my professional life as a sole proprietor, I know the frustrations of this reality. For our own societal health, we need to find a better way. “

Of course, Jim Webb’s potential candidacy confronts tough challenges. Some of his positions on social issues, such as his opposition to most gun control measures, will give some Democratic primary voters pause. Further, his natural base of working and middle class white voters comprise a steadily shrinking share of the Democratic Primary vote. He would also need to build a national fundraising base. Perhaps most important, he will need to embrace the retail politics of meeting voters one-one-one in Iowa and New Hampshire that is essential particularly to underdog candidates. To those who have followed his time in the US Senate, this was not known as one of his strengths.  

But at the end of the day, Webb’s reputation for independent thinking, his unassailable national security credentials, and his force of intellect make him a potentially appealing, if unconventional Presidential candidate. In his upset 2006 victory over incumbent US Senator and potential Republican Presidential candidate George Allen, Webb started out as a pronounced underdog. This Presidential race is admittedly a much steeper climb, but given his undeniable positive qualities and his potential to strike message gold, it is way too early to count him out.
 
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.

 

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