Horowitz: Hard Road Ahead for Romney

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Rob Horowitz, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

 

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Rob Horowitz

Presidential ambitions are not easily abandoned. The former Clinton strategist James Carville famously said, "Running for president is like sex, You don’t do it once and forget about it."   And the late US Senator Ted Kennedy, when asked about how often he thought about running for President, post his unsuccessful 1980 campaign, used to quip, “I don’t think about it any more and I don’t think about it any less.” 

So it is completely understandable that Mitt Romney is having a hard time letting go of his Presidential dreams.  It makes sense that the former Massachusetts Governor and 2012 Republican Presidential nominee still very much wants to be President and still believes he is the best person for the job.  The kind of ego and large-scale ambition of pretty much everyone that runs for the highest office in the nation doesn’t disappear after the election returns are counted, even if the final count is not in one’s favor.

But the fierce desire to be President alone is not fuel enough to propel a successful campaign. And while no one including me has a crystal ball, it is difficult to see a path to a Romney victory.  

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After all, Romney captured the nomination in 2012 against a relatively weak field, mainly because he had a prohibitive financial advantage over his opponents—a big edge that his campaign mainly used to saturate the airwaves with negative ads against his chief competitors.  In other words, the Romney campaign recognized that, given their own candidate’s limited appeal to Republican primary voters, victory could be best achieved not by highlighting Romney’s strengths-but by defining the alternatives as unappealing.   Despite his financial advantage and widespread Republican political establishment support, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, two very flawed candidates, provided stiff competition for Romney defeating him in some key early caucuses and primaries.

This time, if Romney ends up running, neither the money nor political support advantage he enjoyed in 2012 will be present.  This is because the Republican primary field is shaping up to be far stronger for 2016 than it was for 2012.  Among the Republican political establishment and with-in the so-called donor class of big money bundlers, former Florida Governor and brother of the former President, Jeb Bush and current NJ Governor Chris Christie are already occupying a big slice of that space.   Particularly Jeb Bush with his so-far flawless roll out and the fundraising and political heft of the Bush family behind him is likely to out-raise Romney and to garner more political support.

And Romney, who is signaling that he will run to the right of Bush in the primaries, faces stiff competition for votes from more authentic conservatives such as Texas Senator Ted Cruz , Florida Senator Marco Rubio, conservative icon Ben Carson and even a re-tooled and much sharper Rick Perry, former long-time Texas Governor

Another big problem for Romney-one he didn’t face in the 2012 nomination contest-is that he lost the 2012 Presidential general election to President Obama. This is a race that many Republicans thought Romney should have won and perhaps unfairly, they blame him and his campaign for the defeat.  The Romney camp is attempting to address this potential significant stumbling block by pointing out that he has been proven ‘right’ on the policy arguments he made particularly in the foreign policy arena during the campaign and this will count with voters. These are both arguable assumptions to say the least.  The Romney campaign is also emphasizing that both Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon ending up winning the Presidency after several unsuccessful attempts  Of course, Reagan failed in previous attempts to get the nomination—not in a general election. 

In referencing the ultimate ‘conviction politician’ Reagan, Romney may be inadvertently drawing attention to his biggest vulnerability-- the absence of a credible political core’  In his two primary campaigns and one general election campaign, Romney left voters with a strong impression that he would pretty much “say or do anything to get elected”  Unlike Reagan, who was motivated by true conservative convictions and ideals that came through to voters loud and clear, Romney’s pursuit of the Presidency appears to stem from his belief that his competence and skill make him the best man for the job, not in any broader or deeper belief in how he wants to change the nation or its governance.  This is a thin rationale for a candidacy, making Romney all the more vulnerable to the political winds  And in 2016, he is not likely to find them blowing in his direction.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island

 

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