Guest MINDSETTER™Kevin McCarthy: Postmortem For the Convention That Isn’t

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Kevin McCarthy, GoLocalProv Guest MINDSETTER™

 

"We make every minute count / Our share is always the biggest come out/ Other guys imitate us / But the original is still the greatest in crowd / Any time of the year, don't you hear? / Spendin' cash, talkin' trash" - “The In Crowd”, performed by Dobie Gray written by Billy Page, Warner/Chappell Music.

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Well I’m not in with the "In" Crowd. Adlai Stevenson’s one lasting contribution to modern American politics springs to mind. His famous 1952 concession speech, wherein he channeled Abraham Lincoln on political loss saying that, "It hurts too much to laugh, but I'm too old to cry." Disappointed proponents of Question #3 like me, which asked if Rhode Island should hold a Constitutional Convention, know whereof he spoke.

Question #3

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Question #3 failed by a vote of 55.1% - 44.9% statewide, the only ballot question which was defeated on November 4th. It prevailed in only three of 39 communities, East Greenwich, Little Compton and Central Falls. The vote in East Greenwich was essentially a tie with Approve nosing out Reject by 77 votes, 50.7 - 49.3%. In Little Compton it was approved 52.8 - 47.2%, in Central Falls, it was 54.8 - 45.2%. Someday, someone is going to have to explain to me what Little Compton has in common with CF. GoLocalProv reported on November 12th that FBI statistics for violent crimes in RI communities had Little Compton in last place with 0 violent crimes in 2013, while beleaguered Central Falls unfortunately led with 6.751 crimes per 1000 residents. I can scarcely think of two more disparate communities.

Convention proponents made a strategic mistake in not narrowing the aims of a ConCon to only issues of governmental reform. There was and is a lot of public support for making the legislature more accountable, strengthening the powers of the executive and reforming the process of judicial selection. Convention opponents forecast dark and cynical attacks on reproductive rights, same sex marriage and voting rights, none of which were contemplated by anyone I know who favored a ConCon.

More importantly, worker’s rights was left on the table as a possible subject. This waved a red flag in front of RI’s public and private sector unions, who were united in their opposition. This was an empty victory for those pipe-dreaming supporters of right-to-work, something that’s not in the cards for blue state RI. But it did succeed in hardening stances and motivating opposition, which is the opposite of what you should do if you want to win an election.

Voting Analysis

Voting analysis also suggests a puzzling trend of rural, supposedly conservative communities, opposing the question. Burrillville defeated it by the greatest margin, 61.5 - 38.5%. Scituate, the only RI community to support John McCain in 2008, opposed a ConCon by 55.4 - 44.6%. It did this while supporting every republican candidate on the ballot in a federal or state race, including Rhue Reis over Jim Langevin for Congress and John Carlevale over Nellie Gorbea for Secretary of State. Alan Fung bested Gina Raimondo by 22.6 points and third place Bob Healey by 23.1 in the Governor’s race. Ernie Almonte won a more than 2 to 1 victory over Seth Magaziner in the Treasurer’s race (note that Almonte is a Scituate resident).

I have to wonder if there was a hidden gun control angle to this rural vote. Did 2nd Amendment supporters believe that constitutional reform posed some threat to them? If so, it was a curious analysis, since they rejected Gary Sasse, Alan Hassenfeld, John Hazen White, Bob Flanders, Aram Garabedian, Angus Davis, Tim Duffy and Dr. Tim Murphy and embraced Steve Brown, Dr. Pablo Rodriguez, Lila Sapinsley and Kate Brewster. Well, politics does make for some strange bedfellows.

Constitutional Change

Constitutional change needs overwhelming public support to succeed, which the Con Con obviously didn’t have at his time. It may sound like rationalization but without a 15 or 20 point margin of victory, it may be ultimately better that the question failed. The game may not have been worth the candle if a narrow contested victory left reformers without a clear mandate and resulted in chaos and gridlock in the convention process and subsequent ratifications. LBJ wouldn’t accept a close legislative victory in the Civil Rights Act of 1964. He pushed and cajoled (invoking the memory of the slain president) until he got the substantial majority he knew it required. Locally, the last issue touching on constitutional change was the “Providence Plantations” state name change vote of 2010. That somewhat forced historical deconstruction was supported by many of the same people on the Reject side of the ConCon. It failed statewide by an almost 4 to 1 vote, 77.9 - 22.1%. Even in urban Providence, it was defeated 61.9 - 38.1%.

If Rhode Island is going to experience governmental reform, drawing upon the openness and transparency possible in our brave, new digital world, it will require vigilance and activism on the part of those hoping for a political renaissance. I can assure you that the reactionary forces hoping to preserve the status quo and their positions of privilege will not easily cede their power.

 

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