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Fecteau: Deal or No Deal - Iran-Trump Edition

Thursday, April 20, 2017

 

President Donald Trump ordered his administration to evaluate the Iran nuclear deal which lifted U.S. sanctions on Iran. The United States still views Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, which raises a number of obvious concerns. On the campaign trail, then-candidate Trump flirted with scrapping the deal but hopefully will change his position after this review of the deal.

American sanctions on Iran have some pertinent recent history. Before President Barack Obama assumed office, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), ruled that Iran was violating international law. The United States and the global community eventually penalized Iran through harsh sanctions. Once President Barack Obama assumed office, he signed additional sanctions into law through executive order, and persuaded the international community to sanction Iran once again as well. Iran began to feel the pinch with severe economic contractions and inflation.

While the rest of the international community had little issue negotiating with Iran, the unique, contentious history between Iran and the United States made it a particularly touchy subject. The Obama administration resorted to secret negotiations in the country of Oman with Iranian officials to hammer out an agreement. Eventually, the Obama administration approached the worldwide community with an agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). With the success of the deal, Americans and the international community nullified and lifted a significant amount of the sanctions. The dialogue seems to have indeed paved the way for a peaceful agreement.

This deal is far from perfect. Iran has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, but not to produce a nuclear weapon. Iran will receive billions in critically needed trade revenue – some speculate this could be used to finance terrorism.

However, with all its flaws, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action has proven that it is a worthwhile endeavor. The IAEA and even the Trump administration agree that Iran is abiding by the terms of the JCOPA. This would likely not have occurred without the far more stringent sanctions placed on Iran through President Obama’s executive actions. Mr. Trump should recognize this fact.

While the success of sanctions is debatable, the unfortunate fact is that there were few alternatives; if Israel actually targeted Iranian atomic facilities as it threatened in the past, there was a significant chance that the United States would have been pulled back into another war in the Greater Middle East. The Iran nuclear deal worked thus far, and while the Trump administration has every right to review the deal, it is better than nothing, which is the dismay alternative in its stead. 

Matt Fecteau ([email protected]) of Pawtucket, Rhode Island was a Democratic candidate for office in 2014 and 2016. He is a former White House national security intern and Iraq War veteran. Follow him on Twitter @MatthewFecteau

 

Related Slideshow: Trump’s Win - What Does it Mean for Rhode Island?

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Jennifer Duffy

Cook Report

"We don't really know what a Trump presidency means for the nation, never mind the smallest state.  One of the unintended consequences of last night's results is that Sen. Jack Reed won't be chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.  Chalk that up as a loss for RI."

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Pam Gencarella

Head of Ocean State Taxpayers' Association

"Trump’s win means that his signature issue, illegal immigration, could have a big impact on RI, hopefully reversing our course as a sanctuary state and saving the state taxpayer millions of dollars.  While we agree with his 'repeal and replace' Obamacare stance, we have no idea what that means to the RI debacle known as UHIP.  It is not a stretch to believe that federal funding for this kind of system will be off the table so, will RI be stuck with this massively expensive system that still doesn’t work and that is expected to cost another $124 million to fix?  

Trump's belief that there is significant fraud in the Food Stamp program and the policies that may come from that belief could have a negative impact on RI's local economy since there are businesses in certain cities that rely heavily on this program, fraud and all. On the upside, we may be able to ditch the UHIP program if there is significantly less need for processing welfare program requests (ie. Medicaid and food stamps) resulting from fewer illegal immigrants and less fraud.  While we are ambivalent about his touted child care policies, if enacted, it may force our legislators to revisit the ever growing state cost of subsidies in this area and possibly reduce the fraud and abuse in this system." 

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Kay Israel

Professor at Rhode Island College

"With a Republican President and Congress, Rhode Island will probably be excluded from the 'fruits of victory."  

The congressional delegation will be able to vocally make their presence felt, but in the long term it's more symbolic than substantive.  

For Rhode Island it's a matter of holding on and waiting until '18 or '20 and a surge in Democratic influence."

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Jennifer Lawless

Professor at American University

"The RI congressional delegation just became even less powerful than it was. With unified government, Trump doesn’t need to quell Democrats’ concerns or acquiesce because he’s worried about a Democratically-controlled Senate.

His appointments will reflect that. His executive orders will affect that. And the conservative policy agenda he puts forward will affect that."

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Len Lardaro

Professor at University of Rhode Island

"Well there's a few things -- because there's not going to be gridlock, that's a big difference if it had been Hillary and a GOP Congress, in which nothing would got done. We'll at least get a half a billion in infrastructure that's going to pass which will have an impact.

I think you'll see there will be reduced reliance on government nationally -- and that's where we'll stick out like sore thumb. We've relied way too much on government -- and our government is highly inefficient and ineffective.  Maybe, just maybe, in this who cycle of things we might be forced to be small and more efficient for once.

A couple of other things -- interest rates jumped. The one to follow is the ten year government bond rate -- which is tied to mortgages. It went from 1.7% to 2.05% in one day. The point is -- if the ten year stays high, mortgage rates will start going higher -- and in the short time people will run to re-finance. 

That's the short term impact -- but then if rates stay hight, that will make mortgages more out of reach. And we just passed a bond issue to limit open space -- housing has limited upside here.
The next thing -- the Fed Reserve will go ahead with tightening next month. A strong dollar will hurt manufacturing. When the dollar is strong our exports become more expensive overseas. 

Our goods production sector -- manufacturing and construction -- in the near term will do a little better, but as time goes on will be more limited. But something you won't hear, is there are lags in fiscal policy, of six months to year. So we won't really see the effects until the third our fourth quarter of 2017, going into 2018."
 

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Mike Stenhouse

RI Center for Freedon and Prosperity

"As the unbelievable turned into reality this morning, it struck me that the presidential election was not really all about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. It was about a fed-up people, revolting against a corrupt system - the "beast" - that relentlessly favors insiders. Hillary personified the beast, while Donald personified the slayer.

Sadly, based on election results in our state, Rhode Island's version of the beast lives on. I fear our political class has not learned the lessons from the Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump movements - and will continue with their government-centric, anti-family, anti-business status quo."

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Kristina Contreras Fox

VP of Young Democrats of America

"A Trump Presidency means the validation of the ugliest part of America. In RI, as with the rest of the country, the hammer of his hatred will fall hardest on minority communities. Being a blue state doesn't make us immune from this danger.

Trump won over 35% (39.5) of the vote here! We need to look in the mirror, and not lie about what the reflection shows us. No more hiding underneath a blue blanket. I expect those who claim Democratic values to be true to those values. The gulf between words and actions have turned into fertile ground for Trump's message to grow here in RI. If you call yourself a Democrat, if you claim to stand in opposition to Trump, now is the time to prove it. Show up and fight back."
 

 
 

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