Don Roach: Will Gemma Knock Off Cicilline?
Wednesday, June 06, 2012
In 2010, a precocious business man challenged the establishment. He said: “As a taxpayer, as a constituent … I, personally, have been disengaged from the government because I don’t feel that they’re doing the right things that they can be doing.”
So he put his money where his mouth was, invested $200,000 of his own money into his campaign fund, and tossed his name into the ring against the likes of David Cicilline, Bill Lynch, and David Segal. If you’re going to enter politics for the very first time, I can think of easier ways to get started. Nonetheless, Anthony Gemma doesn’t appear interested in doing easy things, but has instead called out the establishment and attempted to bring back the voice of the Rhode Islander into the political arena over the last two years. Whether you agree with his political positions or not, and there a number I find troublesome, Gemma brings a different and daresay refreshing point of view to the first congressional race.
In the 2010 primary against the aforementioned heavy hitters, the political neophyte finished second to David Cicilline but finishing ahead of both Bill Lynch and David Segal. Obviously having the ability to inject his personal income into his campaign didn’t hurt, but in 2010 I believe Gemma tapped into an anti-establishment mood. It’s 2012, Lynch and Segal are long gone, and Gemma is taking a second shot at the first congressional seat. The question is does he have enough to take out Cicilline this year and will voters place their trust into someone who has never held political office?
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In 2010, Gemma was relatively unknown and worked tirelessly to get his message out. He was running against four opponents, all of whom had been in the game much longer than he had. In other words, 2010 was a far more difficult mountain for Gemma to climb simply because he needed to beat three other candidates. That he was able to defeat two of them speaks volumes to his appeal and ability to connect with Democratic voters. That won’t be a problem for him in 2012 it appears as Cicilline and Gemma are the only candidates at the moment. That means Gemma gets to face Cicilline mano a mano. In order to defeat Cicilline he’ll need to get the majority of the 40% of Democrats who voted for Segal and Lynch in 2010.
Can Gemma attract Lynch & Segal’s former supporters?
However, that’s not as easy as it sounds. First, Segal is about as far to the left as they come while Gemma has said this about his Democrat bona fides: “How would you describe a Democrat who supports gay marriage, a Democrat who is pro-life, except in cases of rape, incest and the health of the mother, a Democrat who opposes the death penalty, a Democrat who is pro-business when business is pro-Rhode Island, who is pro-labor when labor is pro-Rhode Island?” For many of the progressives in this state, and yes I’ll generalize here, if you’re not with them on 100 percent of the issues you’re not with them at all. It’s a zero sum game and in that environment Cicilline defeats Gemma. The progressive blog, RI Future, has continually questioned Gemma’s progressive standing citing his campaign contributions to former Governor Don Carcieri as well as only becoming a Democrat a few months prior to the 2010 race.
Like I said, progressive are zero sum gamers, and if you don’t have everything they want they throw the baby out with the bath water. I’m not complaining because it does keep their policy initiatives at bay because of their extremism. But, Gemma needs progressives in order to defeat Cicilline in the primary. I don’t believe he’ll be able to attract enough of them and Cicilline should win that battle 2 to 1.
With respect to Lynch’s supporters Gemma’s situation is just as tricky. Whereas progressives don’t believe Gemma is one of them, Lynch’s supporters are part and parcel to the establishment which receives the bulk of Gemma’s chastisement. If Gemma is the political outsider, Lynch’s former supporters are the political insiders, the cronies, the guys holding the signs on election day, and people who might not find Gemma appealing. The only thing possibly working in Gemma’s favor here is that these same people might not also be running to Cicilline. Cicilline has damaged the Democratic brand with what he’s done in Providence and I doubt many insiders would cry if he was ousted. Given that, let’s say Gemma should have a reasonable chance to grab a small majority of these voters if he reaches out to them and plays his cards correctly.
Are Cicilline’s supporters ripe for the picking?
The third electoral group in play is Cicilline’s supporters themselves. Between 2010 and today I’ve spoken with no less than five former Cicilline supporters who are disgusted with how he handled Providence’s finances and who told me that they would have a difficult time supporting Cicilline again. Obviously, five people is just an anecdotal reference that holds no empirical weight, but I believe Gemma should have an opportunity to court Cicilline’s supporters. Not only does he have an opportunity to do so, HE MUST COURT CICILLINE SUPPORTERS. The reason is that if Gemma can cut into Cicilline’s base of support, grab the majority of Lynch’s voters, and limit the impact of the progressives he has a fighter’s chance to defeat Cicilline in the fall. Cicilline is still the favorite but Gemma can win this thing.
Polls indicate Gemma is in the game
A recent WPRI poll shows exactly what I’m talking about. The poll of 302 likely Democratic primary voters showed Cicilline with a 40 to 36 percent lead over Gemma with 20 percent undecided. Twenty percent of primary voters were still undecided with about four months left in the race. If Gemma can convince a majority of these voters that he is the candidate of choice, he will win. I know I’m stating the obvious but Cicilline is as vulnerable this year as he will ever be. Gemma needs to focus his efforts on rank and file Democrats while also showing Progressives that he is a candidate they can trust.
It’s a political tightrope more suitable to a political hack than novice. Yet, if Gemma hopes to win this race he’ll need to show some political acumen against one of the most politically astute campaigners in the state. That’s the only way he can win, but it’s not as unlikely as it was in 2010.
Don Roach is a member of the RI Young Republicans. He can be reached at [email protected].
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