Don Roach: Jockeying for Position in the 2014 Governor’s Race

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Don Roach, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

 

With more than two years separating us from Rhode Island’s gubernatorial race and today, it’s intriguing to see so many potential candidates jockeying for position. Who will be the Democratic candidate? Will John Robitaille make another attempt at the Governor’s mansion? Will Ken Block affect the outcome as he did in 2010? I know it’s a long way away, but ever since Chafee was elected was in 2010 the question immediately became who would challenge him in 2014 and there are a number of people who may have the right stuff to make a serious run for governor.

View Larger +

Angel Taveras

The mayor of Providence has an interesting gubernatorial profile. If Providence continues to move further away from bankruptcy the more appealing Taveras becomes. He will have led the capitol city out of an economic “hurricane” and if Rhode Island’s economy is still languishing as it is today, Rhode Islanders will certainly find him an enticing candidate.

Also, because he is the mayor of Providence he will have considerable advantage in the primary because his base is the natural base of state Democrats. He may also have a little bit of an “Obama-effect” in that he may be able to motivate voters who don’t generally vote to the polls. It’s quite likely that if Taveras can keep his no-nonsense image over the next two years, in a three-way race between Chafee and a Republican he may be someone who can cut through the middle as we all thought Caprio would do in 2010.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

It also doesn’t hurt that Taveras has been able to fundraise effectively. For the 2nd quarter, he raised $114k which demonstrates he has an ability to rake in the dollars. However, his haul is a far cry from the next person on this list.

Gina Raimondo

After receiving the most votes in Rhode Island during the 2010 election cycle, Raimondo has been viewed as a serious 2014 gubernatorial candidate. I have to admit, other than the ability to raise money, she’s never really appealed to me. Nonetheless, my personal opinion doesn’t cloud the fact that if she enters the governor’s race in 2014 she will be a formidable opponent. There are two things going for that she has over every other Democratic candidate – she can raise money like no one else in the state and she tackled the pension problem head on in her first year of office.

On the fundraising front, Raimondo raised $258k in the 2nd quarter, dwarfing the respectable $114k Taveras raised. She just has a supply of financial supporters that will allow her to get her message out, blunt the messages of her opponents, and most importantly have enough cash to get through a tricky primary and enough to do battle in a three-way race in the fall. If I were the Democrats and I wanted to take out Chafee, I would tell every other Democrat to bow out the race and allow Raimondo to…well..do her thing. That’s probably not going to happen, but Democrats have the best chance with Raimondo.

Beyond her money advantage, she’s a Democrat who was able to do what the Democrat General Assembly couldn’t do for almost a decade – reform the pension system. Come 2014, I imagine that Raimondo and Chafee will argue over who was the most influential in bringing pension reform to Rhode Island, but it’s clear to Rhode Island voters she was instrumental in bringing about change to the pension system and demonstrated that she’s not a slave to the Rhode Island unions. Yet, as we saw with Caprio a misstep could derail Raimondo and open the door for a dark horse candidate.

Ernest Almonte

Who? Almonte the former RI Auditor General who filed for governor two and a half years ahead of the election in 2014 is definitely a dark horse candidate. He’s never held elected office previously but has been involved with a number of initiatives, most notably sitting on the pension-advisory group led by Chafee-Raimondo last year. It seems the conversations he had during those meetings led him to decide to run instead of advising those who held public office.

Almonte raised about $56k in the 2nd quarter while loaning his campaign another $50k. That’s not Raimondo or even Taveras money, but it’s credible and if we know anything about RI politics, voters are willing to give first time candidates a chance in the governor’s race.

And so, while Almonte has little name recognition today, he’s got plenty of time to make a name for himself and is well-known amongst insiders. Speaking of insiders, there’s another name who bowed out early in 2010 who might make a comeback in 2014.

Patrick Lynch

I’m not going to spend much time on Lynch, because we know who he is, what he stands for, and have a general idea of what he’ll do for Rhode Island (read: not much). Lynch also has a war chest of $330k+ cash on hand while not raising a dime in the 2nd quarter. Raising money won’t be a problem for Lynch; I suspect he may look at a race he can win and like 2010 that race won’t be governor.

How about non-Democrats?

John Robitaille

The former Republican candidate came within a whisker of winning the race in 2010 despite the fact he had a tremendous cash disadvantage. 2014 would be no different for the affable Republican who has been mentioned as a candidate at every Republican meeting I’ve attended since November 2010.

Fundraising is an issue as it is for just about every Republican in the state and Robitaille raised nothing in the 2nd quarter of 2012 and unlike Patrick Lynch had about $3k on hand. Robitaille will have name recognition in 2014 and so won’t need as much money as he did in 2010, but I have a difficult time believing that with such a financial disadvantage he’ll be able to get his message out effectively.

Stranger things have happened, of course, but as I’ve written before, there’s another Republican who I believe will be able to do battle with some of the heavy hitters showing up on the Democratic side.

Allan Fung

The mayor of Cranston is so popular, he’s running unopposed and if my history is correct, that’s the first time that’s happened in Cranston in over 100 years. The mayor has battled with the unions and won, took proactive steps to avoid the bankruptcy talks that pervade almost every other city, and has been in every sense of the word been a champion for the city of Cranston.

His 2nd quarter fundraising was dwarfed by Raimondo and Taveras coming in at only $18k, and that’s the biggest question surrounding Fung. Does he have enough of a fundraising support system to wage battle with Raimondo, Chafee, and anyone else who’s in the race in 2014? I’m not sure, quite honestly, but what I do know is that Fung has hustle.

He’ll be out on the streets, visiting senior centers, and at every little league game he can find. Fung’s major advantage over his potential opponents is how relatable he is to constituents and how little BS he shovels in their direction. He tells you what he believes is the best course of action, not necessarily what you want to hear. If Fung makes an early decision to enter the race, say mid-2013, he can spend a year and a half building his brand, building his war chest, and may find himself in a race where Raimondo and Chafee cancel each other out and he wins a significant portion of independents.

But when it comes to independents we can’t talk about 2014 without talking about Ken Block.

Ken Block

Many have made the argument that if Block had not been in the 2010 race, Robitaille would have been elected. While there may be something to that,if Block enters the 2014 race he will have an impact. During the 2010 campaign, he demonstrated a command of the issues and an ability to debate above and beyond his opponents. That didn’t translate into votes, unfortunately for him, and his lack of funding probably contributed to his inability to get his message to voters.

As of the 2nd quarter, Block held $0.06 in his account, without raising any money in the same timeframe. Nonetheless, Block has enough name recognition and surely would acquit himself well on the campaign trail in 2014 to be a factor should he decide to run.

Who wins in 2014?

One candidate not profiled is current governor Chafee who will surely run for reelection. He’s got a solid fundraising arm and thus far hasn’t made major mistakes, but the focus of this piece has been on his potential challengers. Trying to foresee who would win in 2014 is difficult at this point. There are so many things that can and will change between now and then. Suffice it to say, Raimondo looks to be a very strong candidate for the Democrats and if Fung is able to increase his ability to fundraise, he’ll be difficult to dissuade on the Republican side.

In the meantime, we’ve got the 2012 election cycle before us which is full of intriguing races, personalities, and the hope that whomever we elect will help right the ship here in Rhode Island.

Don Roach is a member of the RI Young Republicans. He can be reached at [email protected].
 

 

Related Articles

 

Enjoy this post? Share it with others.

 
 

Sign Up for the Daily Eblast

I want to follow on Twitter

I want to Like on Facebook