Don Roach: Hinckley Closing in on Senator Whitehouse

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Don Roach, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

 

Barry Hinckley.

What comes to mind when I mention incumbent Senator Sheldon Whitehouse’s Republican opponent? Is it the youthful father who made a cute commercial with his son? Is it the man who has been around Rhode Island campaigning for more than a year? Or is his name nothing more than a number of names of people you’ve never heard of asking for your vote this fall?

If Brown and WPRI are to be believed he’s a man who trails Whitehouse by more than 25 points with less than two weeks left in the campaign. That would make him a man with zero chance of supplanting our incumbent Senator and only to be remembered as the answer to a local trivia question - “Who ran against Whitehouse in 2012?”

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Such is life for Republican candidates in Rhode Island or is it? A recent poll by McLaughlin & Associates shows Hinckley only down eight points. Eight points for a challenger with two weeks remaining means he has a fighting chance. Hinckley has been fighting an uphill battle over the past year as Whitehouse hasn’t made any particular missteps during his time as Senator.

Some of my Republican friends might rankle at that comment but let’s look at this objectively and say that Whitehouse isn’t a politician who inspires euphoria or disdain amongst the independent voters in the state. If anything, I’d guess most Rhode Islanders have a collective “blah” attitude towards Whitehouse.

Oh Whitehouse is one of our Senators, meh ok…how’d the Pats do this weekend?

I tend to believe that “blah” politicians will remain in office unless they make a bonehead mistake or a unique candidate comes along and ousts them off their uninspiring perch. For over a year Hinckley has tried to be that unique, different kind of Rpublican candidate to take down Whitehouse. In general, I think he has succeeded in becoming a viable candidate and not just a placeholder on the ballot. That I count him not being a placeholder as a victory tells you all you need to know about Republicans’ Congressional victory chances.

Nonetheless, I was definitely disappointed when the Brown and WPRI polls came out. I was not disappointed with the Hinckley campaign team that has done as much work to get their candidate as possible, but I was disappointed in my fellow Rhode Island citizens who seem to be giving Whitehouse a free pass. Now, I can feel my Democratic friends rolling their collective eye-balls at that statement ready to chastise me for not giving Whitehouse any “credit” for his “accomplishments” over the past six years.

Well…go ahead and use the comment box for that, I dare you.

Seriously, you know you want to talk about Sheldon and his commercial about bringing jobs back to Rhode Island. We’ll wait for you...

... Ok, back to reality, which is our Rhode Island Congressional delegation simply does not have the best record on trying to secure jobs for Rhode Island, real jobs for real people and it surprises and disappoints me people have not given Hinckley as much of a chance as you’d think with our unemployment rates as high as they are.

But, if we’re to believe this recent poll perhaps they are. I’m not completely sold that one poll can say the race is within 8 points when other polls have the gap greater than 25. Something just seems really off about that. But, could it be possible that earlier polls had a number of undecideds and all of those people are going to Hinckley?

I don’t think the numbers are there for that, unfortunately. Instead, if the latest poll is to be believed, Hinckley has peeled away a significant portion of Whitehouse’s support during the past several weeks. Again…I’m unsure of what to believe as the more accurate poll, but if the recent poll is a more accurate picture of the race, Hinckley has puncher’s chance to pull this off. I don’t think it’s out of the ordinary to believe that in a close race that independents swing to the challenger late, but are there enough non-committed voters?

I know I just asked that question in the previous paragraph but it is THE question. If an independent poll confirms what McLaughlin & Associates suggest, I am going to do a little dance. At worst, the new poll helped Hinckley create a little buzz, crash his website, and possible inch a little closer to Whitehouse.

At best, Hinckley becomes a household name and is our next Senator! I’ll believe in the dream…at least until the next poll.

Don Roach is a member of the RI Young Republicans. He can be reached at [email protected] .

 

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