Don Roach: Fung Team Must Recognize Block Campaign Growing Stronger
Thursday, May 22, 2014
What are we to make of Ken Block’s poll that shows him 9 points ahead of Allan Fung in the race to secure the Republican gubernatorial nomination?
Sitting at my computer as I read the GoLocal headline, I wondered if the poll was conducted by an independent agency. Alas no, it was a poll Block conducted. Conducted is the wrong word; Block paid for the poll. Nonetheless, a Brown poll last month showed Block with a 5 percentage point lead over Fung. That was within the poll’s 10.6 margin of error (the margin is so high simply because there are so few Republicans in the state…sigh) but it shows that Block’s campaigning has been effective at appealing to voters.
Let me explain what I mean by appealing – had Block not made a dent into Fung’s initial lead, the results would have shown Fung above 50 percent in the Brown poll. Instead they showed Fung behind. Yes, it was within the margin of error but swinging the results 10.6 points in the other direction give Fung a 5 percentage point lead. That’s odd to me.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTFung has been the leading Rhode Island Republican since Don Carcieri left office. He’s beloved in Cranston as his pragmatic and “one of us” approach has appealed to Republican, Democratic, and Independent Cranstonians alike. And yet a Brown and now, Block, poll shows him behind Block.
What gives?
Contrary to what I initially thought about the Block v. Fung battle this won’t be an easy race for Fung. Months ago, I thought that this race would be a good test for Fung as Block has his own financial backing to make a credible run for Governor. Indeed, if Fung can’t defeat Block there’s no way in the world he’d be able to defeat the machinations of Raimondo or Taveras.
Now, Captain Obvious would say that if you lose in the primary you can’t win a general election and yes, that’s true, but my point is that relatively speaking Block is an easier opponent than whichever “behemoth” he’d face in November.
That’s what worries me. Fung is left of some of the mainstream Republicans – you know, those RIRA guys – but Block is further even further to the left!! Fung won’t need to do any pivoting right because he’s facing a more conservative opponent and have to fear, as Chafee did in 2006, that his political two-step would cost him against his Democratic foes. And yet here we are with a way-too-close-than-it-should-be battle for the GOP nomination.
With respect to Pat Sweeney, I was not particularly encouraged by his response to Block’s poll. Here’s why, one – it seemed dismissive of the poll and Block’s entire campaign. Throwing away Block’s poll, I’d argue that the Brown poll does paint a relatively accurate picture of the race which leads anyone to believe that this is indeed a race. Perhaps months ago, Block could be dismissed but at this stage Block is a formidable foe and dismissing him doesn’t tell those on the fence voters why they should vote for Fung versus Block. I think taking that tact would be an error.
Additionally, Sweeney cited the number of city and town chairpeople who have endorsed Fung. That’s all well and good, but if there is one thing we know it’s that Rhody voters are independent. Consider Carcieri back in 2002, he wasn’t the endorsed candidate and yet he still won the primary. If the Fung team believes that winning the endorsement of key people in the GOP will win the primary, twelve years ago tells a very different story.
Scratching my head
A few months ago, I sat in a room with Block and Fung both speaking about what they wanted to do for the state if elected. I walked away from that setting believing Block didn’t have a chance to defeat Fung if that was the message he was taking across the state. And yet Block has been able to cut into Fung’s lead and according to his team, overtake it, through consistent attacks against Fung, in my opinion. The Cranston Police scandal also didn’t do Fung any favors as it sowed the seed that Fung is just like other politicians “abusing” their power. I’ve know Fung for a long time, and I’d have a very difficult time believing he would resort to something as petty, but moreso, politically risky as what happened in Cranston. However, most of the state don’t know “Allan” and will believe what they read with nothing else to go by.
Scratching my head as to how Block has whittled down Fung’s lead, I believe that he has employed a fairly effective strategy – almost a “death by a thousand paper cuts” strategy where Block is continually trying to poke holes in Fung’s resume. Fair or not, I believe this is really Block’s only chance to win and thus far he has been effective and I think the Fung team would be unwise to deny this.
Does Block have a 9 point lead? I doubt it, but he got a reputable polling organization to say he does and that by itself continues to put pressure on the Fung team. It’s their turn to respond.
Don can be reached at [email protected] .
