Don Roach: 2012 Election Predictions

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Don Roach, GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™

 

Well folks, it’s less than a week until we vote on our next leaders. Given my tremendous track record of predicting winners, I figured it was time to roll out my predictions this election cycle. Ok, so I haven’t been that prolific at predicting who will win, but perhaps this time I’ll get on a hot streak? Hey, you never know and since this is my column, I’m going to give it the old college try….again. Here’s how I believe the headlines will read next Wednesday morning:

Langevin defeats Riley

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I wrote previously that Riley could defeat Langevin, however, I believe that Riley has had too difficult a mountain to climb and won’t be able to overcome Langevin and his lifelong, I mean decade plus tenure in Congress. Langevin is a likeable candidate and that counts for something and I don’t believe Riley has had enough time to get his message out there and compel voters to not vote for the likeable candidate. It’s sad that people will stick with someone who is likable, but this is politics not a fair playing field. I think the race will be closer than recent polls indicated but Langevin’s likability will win the day for him, again. Hopefully, Riley will take up the mantle in 2014 because it’s not like Langevin will introduce earth shattering legislation that will help Rhode Islanders get back to work, right?

Whitehouse handles Hinckley

I’m not sold that Hinckley is within striking distance of Whitehouse and sorry to my Republican friends I think Hinckley will be lucky to find himself within double digits of Senator Whitehouse. There may be a little reverse psychology with this prediction as I do believe Hinckley has come on strong in the past few weeks. And watching recent Whitehouse commercials where he is in a town hall atmosphere, I’m reminded of how uncomfortable he appears with normal people. I think Whitehouse is one of the most un-relatable politicians I’ve ever had the pleasure of observing and he never seems sincere to me. It could be me, but I think Hinckley is a much more relatable character. For some reason Hinckley never gained steam from January through August this year he’s had to scratch and claw just to get within relative striking distance. I feel strongly that a majority of undecideds will vote for Hinckley on election day but by then Whitehouse will probably have sewn up the vote of a majority of Rhode Islanders. It’s a case of too little, too late.

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Doherty dethrones the Prince

I will be dancing in the streets if/when Doherty wins next week. Indeed, if GoLocal reports a slightly balding black dude dancing wildly down Thayer Street, then you’ll know Brendan Doherty defeated David Cicilline. Street dancing notwithstanding, I wasn’t overly impressed by some of the Doherty campaign commercials in September, but I’ve enjoyed the most recent ones that separate Doherty’s record of trust and Cicilline’s record of…um, how to put this nicely, lies! Seriously though, when you go to the voting booth on Tuesday and are voting between a man who led the state police with integrity versus a man who refused to acknowledge the economic firestorm in his city because he was trying to win an election, just think about what type of person you’d like your children to vote for. If 60% of voters think that way, it’s Doherty in a landslide. But they won’t, and so I’m picking Doherty in a squeaker 51 to 49.

It’s Obama take two

In 2008, I voted for Barack Obama. In 2012 I will not be casting a ballot for him. In 2008, I was drinking the Hope, Change, Yes We Can, kool-aid like so many other people across the nation. I recall listening to Obama’s acceptance speech thinking to myself “(gulp) Well, I hope he can right the ship and I hope he is as bipartisan as he says he will be.” Not sure what I was smoking, but whatever it was it was good, real good because Obama has been anything but the bipartisan champion he purported to be. With the stimulus, Obamacare, and a recent penchant of using scare tactics to sway voters away from Republicans Obama has morphed into your garden variety politician touting his own party. Yawn, if we wanted that why didn’t we elect Hilary back in 2008? I’m sure she would have shilled for the Democrats just as well and I think she would have tackled the economy much more effectively.

Some of you will say that Obama never changed and was always a partisan hack to which I’ll reply – I wish the country (and I) believed you back in 2008. Alas, it’s 2012 and I think that Obama is going to narrowly defeat Mitt Romney this Tuesday for one simple reason – Latino voters.

I’ve been telling anyone who will listen that the election will come down to Latino voters. McCain got 31% of Latino voters in 2008 (and lost) and I believe Romney needs 35% of Latino voters. In 2004, the Bush team realized how important Latino voters were and Bush won 45% of their support; not a majority but certainly enough to negate the devastating effect on the race if they vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

And despite the fact that Obama is deporting people at a faster pace than any other previous president, Latino voters are not warming up to Romney. When Romney narrowly loses this race, the GOP needs to realize that without anything less than 35% of the Latino vote it’s going to be impossible to win the Presidency in the future. Period. Unfortunately, I think the Romney campaign has fumbled the football on Latino voters and will pay the price. Yay, four more years of no hope and no change….

…Sigh. Well, these are my predictions; feel free to leave yours down below. We’ll circle back next week and see how things went.

Don Roach is a member of RI Young Republicans. He can be reached at [email protected] .

 

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