Don Roach: 5 Things to Watch for in 2012
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
If you’re reading this, I hope you’re on vacation and just a political junkie. If you’re at work or otherwise don’t have your feet propped up on your recliner, well I’m sorry. Looks like you didn’t win the lottery in 2011, but you never know about 2012, right? Here’s what we do know. These are five things that will litter..err…permeate throughout the headlines in 2012.
David Cicilline versus the world
John Loughlin. Anthony Gemma. Brendan Doherty. David Segal. What do these four have in common? Like much of the state, they want to see someone else representing Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District. The story of 2012 will be whether or not one of these four or someone else can defeat Cicilline. As much as I cannot see Cicilline winning, stranger things have happened. But we’ll find out a lot about the character of Rhode Island if the 1st district decides to forgive Cicilline for his transgressions against Providence and his ‘power of persuasion’ in the redistricting process.
Bankruptcy roulette erupts?
With pension ‘reform’ complete without much help for municipalities, who’s the next town to fall victim to bankruptcy as Central Falls did earlier in the year? That’s going to be a hot topic in 2012 as the following cities face difficult financial situations – West Warwick, Woonsocket, Providence, & Pawtucket. The latter two cities have made significant inroads in addressing their budgetary problems. Nonetheless, pensions are going to continue to rock the cities, as it were, until addressed. Lawmakers are saying they plan to make municipal pension reform a priority in 2012 but I still think one of these four faces a crisis akin to Central Falls next year.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTThe impact of Carcieri on the RI GOP
2012 is an impact year for the RI GOP. I’ve noted what I believe incoming Chairman, Mark Zaccaria, should focus on, but the big topic is will ‘Uncle Don’ continue to dominate the RI GOP. What, you didn’t think Carcieri still had his fingers on RI politics? He isn’t running for Senate but that doesn’t mean he’s not involved. Carcieri is a great fundraiser and those associated with him benefit from this. One could say that sans a link to Carcieri it’s hard for any Republican in RI to successfully build a war chest. To be honest, can anyone name a Republican candidate in the last few years not connected to Carcieri who has been able to fundraise effectively? If you can, please let me know!
The down side is that Carcieri was never able to truly endear himself to rank and file GOP’ers nor intice enough people to join Republican ranks. Not that anyone else has done better than Carcieri but Carcieri seems focused on the larger offices than local races. If he has that type of impact in 2012 Cicilline may be toppled but the less than 10 reps in the General Assembly won’t be getting company. Don’t even think about cities and towns.
Allan Fung
In 2008, Allan Fung bucked the national Democratic tidal wave and won a landslide victory in the Cranston Mayoral race. In 2010, against a lesser opponent, Fung received 70+% of the vote. The question facing Fung in 2012 and beyond is, What is his reach beyond the city limits of Cranston. Will he flame out like Steve Laffey or gulp, like former Republican Lincoln Chafee, have a more broad appeal? His election for mayor in 2012 won’t exactly tell us this but his donor list in 2012 may give some indication. And as with the last point, can Fung develop a campaign donation stream enabling to make a run in 2014? Don’t think 2012 is too early to begin thinking about 2014. It isn’t. And don’t think that what happens in 2012 won’t influence Fung’s movements beyond next year. Fung and Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian are the GOP’s rock stars – only stars – and the next few years the party’s ascent/descent will go as far as these to take it.
Casinos in Massachusetts, How about RI?
Remember all those General Assembly battles over casinos a few years back? Remember how the Narragansett Indians lost those battles and we do not have a casino like Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun in Rhode Island. Well, if Robert Kraft has anything to say about it, such a casino may be coming to a Foxboro near you. If it does, will lawmakers rue the day they didn’t overturn Governor Carcieri’s veto that would have placed the question before voters in 2010 versus 2012. Back in 2010, most polls showed Rhode Islanders favored a larger casino but by the time this initiative goes before them in 2012, will Kraft’s proposed casino in Foxboro be well on it’s way to completion? Seems like RI behind the business curve…..again.
There certainly will be other significant stories in 2012 but as I see it, these will be some pretty significant and interesting ones. Happy Holidays and stay safe!
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