Democratic Bloodbath?
Monday, May 31, 2010
You heard it here first.
Businessman Anthony Gemma is the 4th candidate in the September 14th Democratic Primary for the 1st Congressional District. - a seat currently held by Congressman Patrick Kennedy.
Gemma has a campaign Facebook page already up - featuring campaign photos in front of the U.S. Capitol - and a formal announcement is expected soon. HIs campaign is expected to be led by Chad Radock, an experienced operative of the Hillary Clinton campaign and the former deputy field director for the Stephen Pagliuca campaign for US Senate in Massachusetts.
But what does Gemma's entrance into the CD-1 race foretell for Democratic chances of keeping Patrick Kennedy's deep-blue congressional seat?
Gemma, 40, is the youngest of nine children. He graduated from Suffolk University in 1992 and got his law degree from Roger Williams University School of Law in 1998. He was an executive of Gem Plumbing and recently founded Mediapeel, a marketing firm. Gemma co-founded the Gloria Gemma Breast Cancer Resource Foundation in memory of his mom, who died from breast cancer in 2002. He resides in Lincoln with his wife Julie DiManni-Gemma and his son, Anthony.
According to his campaign's Facebook page, Gemma "made his decision to seek election in the US House of Representatives 1st Congressional District because of his passion for the State he calls home." His "mission is to re-invent and re-invigorate public service for the 21st century."
Gemma, a self-described "conservative Democrat" is a darling of talk radio where he has relentlessly promoted his various companies. For example, he leads the CD-1 race in this online talk radio poll (interestingly, Gemma promoted this poll on his Facebook site). In addition, Gemma has a vast personal fortune from his business ventures which he is expected to tap to fund his Congressional race.
But, with a little more than 100 days left before the September 14th Democratic Primary, does Gemma have time to get his message out to voters? Will Gemma be the next Stephen Pagliuca who spent millions to only get 12% of the vote in the recent Massachusetts Democratic Primary to replace Senator Kennedy? Or will he be the next Don Carcieri who comes out of nowhere to win a top political post in Rhode Island?
Opinions are mixed. One recent poll shows Gemma with single-digit name recognition with CD-1 voters. But, with voter anger at incumbent politicians running high, low name recognition combined with vast resources might give Gemma the opportunity to craft his own personal story as the outsider, the reformer, that voters want in a partisan DC environment. Alternatively, with low name-recognition, Gemma' opponents might frame him as a conservative businessman - a successor to Governor Don Carcieri who failed to utilize his corporate experience to change or improvement government.
And the reality is that Gemma is untested as a political candidate. Where does he stand on choice? Marriage equality? Renewable energy? Workers rights? Immigration? Civil liberties? How will he respond to a tough political environment? Rumors have already surfaced that Gemma has failed to vote as a Democrat in recent elections and that he hasn't attended a Lincoln town financial meeting in the last five years. Obviously, being a self-proclaimed outsider has its advantages and its disadvantages.
Certainly, the already declared "outsider" candidates in this race must be concerned: former Democratic chairman Bill Lynch and current State Representative and progressive champion David Segal. Their campaign plans undoubtedly seek to capitalize on the non-urban negatives of Providence Mayor David Cicilline. But Lynch has the most reason to be concerned. Gemma has a base in the Blackstone Valley - where Lynch expected to accumulate many anti-Cicilline votes. Meanwhile, Segal may have less reason to be concerned as he seeks to capture many of the green and good government types on Providence's East Side, in the East Bay and on Aquidneck Island - where Gemma has little name recognition.
However, in a 4-way race, it seems likely that the anti-Cicilline vote will be broken up in three different ways, benefiting the well-funded Cicilline campaign. Further, if Cicilline's most well-funded opponent - likely, Gemma - attacks his Mayoral record, it is uncertain whether these voters will respond and, if they do, whether they go to the the creator of these ads or to Lynch or Segal.
Republican congressional candidate John Loughlin will seek to take advantage of this likely Democratic bloodbath. And Rhode Island political history sides with Loughlin. Bitter and bruising primaries resulted in a Chafee senatorial win in 2000, a Carcieri gubernatorial win in 2002 and a Sheldon Whitehouse senatorial win in 2006.
Thus, the winner of the Democratic Primary - after months of biting television and mailing advertising - will face a tough gauntlet of (1) uniting his opponents' supporters and (2) convincing Independent and Republican voters - in just 7 short weeks - to support his campaign for the General Election.
One thing is for certain: Democratic activists are concerned that a primary bloodbath - with millions of advertising dollars dedicated to Democrats attacking each other - could ensure that Scott Brown's earth-shattering victory was more than a once-in-a-lifetime Republican upset in New England.
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