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Brown Poll: Pot Gaining Support - Raimondo and Taveras Dead Heat

Thursday, April 10, 2014

 

A new Brown University public opinion survey shows that State Treasurer Gina Raimondo and Providence Mayor Angel Taveras are in a statistical dead heat in the Governor's race. The survey also reveals gaining support for the legalization of marijuana in Rhode Island.

The gubernatorial primaries

The survey, conducted by Brown University researchers finds that among Rhode Island voters who are “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to vote in the Democratic primary for governor, 29.4 percent would choose Raimondo, 25.8 percent would choose Taveras, 9.6 percent would choose Clay Pell, with 35.2 percent undecided.

Among the Rhode Island voters “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to vote in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, the poll asked respondents whether they or anyone in their family is a member of a union or teachers’ association. Of those who said yes, 33.9 percent said they would vote for Taveras and 23.5 percent would vote for Raimondo, a difference of 10 percentage points. Pell had support from 8.7 percent, and 33.9 percent were undecided.

Among “very likely” and “somewhat likely” Democratic primary voters who reported that neither they nor anyone in their family is a member of a union or teachers’ association, Raimondo held a slight lead — 32.2 percent to 23.0 percent for Taveras and 9.6 percent for Pell with 35.2 percent undecided. The survey also shows that among likely Democratic voters more men support Raimondo (32.7 percent) than Taveras (19.6 percent). Women are more equally divided between the two top Democratic candidates (Raimondo at 26.9 percent and Taveras at 30.7 percent).

About 10 percent of Rhode Island voters are registered Republicans. Among the 600 respondents in the Taubman poll, 9.7 percent self-identified as Republican. Just over 13 percent of the respondents said they were “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to vote in the Republic gubernatorial primary. Among those “very likely” or “somewhat likely” Republican primary voters, Cranston Mayor Allen Fung (31.4 percent) and Ken Block (36.0 percent) are in a statistical dead heat, with 38.5 percent of Republican primary voters undecided.

Marijuana legalization

In recent decades support has been growing for the legalization of marijuana. In 2012, Washington and Colorado became the first states to legalize marijuana for recreational use. In February 2014, the Rhode Island General Assembly introduced legislation to legalize marijuana and establish a system that would regulate and tax it.

In the Taubman survey, Rhode Island voters were asked whether they supported making it legal to possess small amounts of marijuana for personal use. Nearly half (47.6 percent) support this idea, about the same level of support as in national polls on the subject. The survey shows that 39.3 percent of Rhode Island voters oppose legalization and 9.3 percent are undecided on the issue. Support for marijuana legalization is strongest among younger voters – 65 percent of those 29 or younger said they supported legalizing small amounts of marijuana; 52.6 percent of those aged 30-44 supported legalization; 51.3 percent of those aged 45-59 supported legalization; and 40.9 percent of respondents 60 years and older said they supported legalization.

Economic views

Most Rhode Island voters continue to feel the local economy is in rough shape, with 92.0 percent saying it is not so good or poor, a number similar to results from a October 2013 Taubman Center survey. Fewer voters judged the national economy as not so good or poor (76.5 percent). When asked about the state of their personal finances, Rhode Island voters reported a brighter picture, with 59.6 percent saying their finances are good or excellent. A strong majority (62.5 percent) feels that Rhode Island is on the wrong track, with just 20.2 percent reporting that they feel the state is going in the right direction.

Approval ratings

Among national officials, Sen. Jack Reed has the highest approval rating with 55.3 percent of Rhode Island voters saying his performance is excellent or good. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse has an approval rating of 40.6 percent, Rep. Jim Langevin 40.1 percent and Rep. David Cicilline 26.0 percent. President Barack Obama has an approval rating of 43.0 percent. Among local officials, Taveras has the highest approval rating, at 54.4 percent and Raimondo has a 49.3 percent approval rating. Gov. Lincoln Chafee has the lowest approval rating of any local official — 21.2 percent.


Survey questions and answers

How likely are you to vote in the 2014 Democratic primary for governor? Are you:
very likely–48.8%
somewhat likely–17.0%
not very likely–30.2%
don’t know/no answer (DK/NA)–4.0%

(Asked only of those who answered “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to Question 1) If the 2014 Democratic primary for governor were held today, would you vote for:
Gina Raimondo–29.4%
Angel Taveras–25.8%
Clay Pell–9.6%
DK/NA–35.2%

(Asked only of those who answered “not very likely” or “DK/NA” to Question 1) How likely are you to vote in the 2014 Republican primary for governor? Are you:
very likely–34.0%
somewhat likely–11.0%
not very likely–45.0%
DK/NA–10.0%

(Asked only of those who answered “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to Question 3) If the 2014 Republican primary for governor were held today, would you vote for:
Allen Fung–31.4%
Ken Block–36.0%
DK/NA–32.6%

How would you rate the job Barack Obama is doing as president?
excellent–11.5%
good–31.5%
only fair–25.5%
poor–29.0%
DK/NA–2.5%

How would you rate the job Jack Reed is doing as U.S. senator?
excellent–19.8%
good–35.5%
only fair–23.2%
poor–12.5%
DK/NA–9.0%

How would you rate the job Sheldon Whitehouse is doing as U.S. senator?
excellent–13.1%
good–27.5%
only fair–26.7%
poor–21.0%
DK/NA–11.7%

How would you rate the job David Cicilline is doing as U.S. representative?
excellent–4.5%
good–21.5%
only fair–30.0%
poor–28.2%
DK/NA–15.8%

How would you rate the job Jim Langevin is doing as U.S. representative?
excellent–8.3%
good–31.8%
only fair–29.2%
poor–13.5%
DK/NA–17.2%

How would you rate the job Lincoln Chafee is doing as governor?
excellent–4.0%
good–17.2%
only fair–29.5%
poor–44.0%
DK/NA–5.3%

How would you rate the job Elizabeth Roberts is doing as lieutenant governor?
excellent–4.8%
good–25.0%
only fair–7.2%
poor–13.0%
DK/NA–30.0%

How would you rate the job Peter Kilmartin is doing as attorney general?
excellent–5.0%
good–27.2%
only fair–21.5%
poor–11.3%
DK/NA–35.0%

How would you rate the job A. Ralph Mollis is doing as secretary of state?
excellent–4.2%
good–23.3%
only fair–26.7%
poor–9.8%
DK/NA–36.0%

How would you rate the job Gina Raimondo is doing as general treasurer?
excellent–13.6%
good–35.7%
only fair–17.7%
poor–16.5%
DK/NA–16.5%

How would you rate the job Teresa Paiva-Weed is doing as Senate president?
excellent–3.0%
good–19.1%
only fair–24.7%
poor–19.5%
DK/NA–33.7%

How would you rate the job Angel Taveras is doing as mayor of Providence?
excellent–13.0%
good–41.4%
only fair–23.3%
poor–6.5%
DK/NA–15.8%

Changing topics, would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as:
excellent–1.2%
good–20.1%
not so good–46.7%
poor–29.8%
DK/NA–2.2%

Would you describe the state of Rhode Island’s economy these days as:
excellent–0.2%
good–6.0%
not so good–33.7%
poor–58.3%
DK/NA–1.8%

Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as:
excellent–7.2%
good–52.4%
not so good–25.0%
poor–11.2%
DK/NA–4.2%

Generally speaking, would you say things in Rhode Island are:
going in the right direction–20.2%
off on wrong track–62.5%
mixed–10.4%
DK/NA–6.9%

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy?
approve–42.4%
disapprove–46.6%
DK/NA–11.0%

Overall, do you support or oppose legalizing the possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal use?
support--47.6%
oppose–39.3%
unsure–9.3%
DK/NA–3.8%

 

Related Slideshow: PAC Spending in the 2014 Rhode Island Governor’s Race

With Election Day now just months away, GoLocal took a look at PAC spending in the Rhode Island gubernatorial campaigns.

Who is giving to who -- and how much?  And what's worth more, the money or the grassroots support?

Below is look at recorded PAC giving by the candidates in their campaign finance reports for the 2013 calendar year, by quarter.  Candidate Todd Giroux has an affadavit for an annual filing exemption.

Prev Next

Gina Raimondo - Q1 2013

PAC money received: $7,000

AON Corporation:  $2,500*
Attorneys Partridge, Snow, and Hahn: $1000
Brokers for Better Health Care: $250
Engage RI PAC: $1000
Hinckley Allen and Snyder: $1000
Hinckley Allen and Snyder Rhode Island PAC: $1000
RI Medical PAC: $250
 
Cash balance ending March 31, 2013: $1,723,203.71
 
Excessive donation made in error, said would "be reflected" in 2nd quarter report
Prev Next

Gina Raimondo - Q2 2013

PAC money received: $4,400 

Amica RI PAC: $250
Cox PAC: $1000
Federal Express RI State PAC: $250
IBEW Local 99: $500
Iron Workers Local 37: $250
Metlife Insurance PAC D:  $200
Plumbers and Pipefitters Local: $500
RI Bricklayers PAC: $500
RI Carpenters PAC: $200
RI Laborers PAC: $500
Sheet Metal Workers: $250
 
Cash balance ending June 30, 2013: $2,063,548.54
Prev Next

Gina Raimondo - Q3 2013

PAC money received $1,750 

Citzens Bank PACOM: $500
Delta Dental of RI PAC: $500
DRIVE PAC: $500
International Union of Painters: $250
 
Cash balance ending September 30, 2013: $2,305,657.89
 
Prev Next

Gina Raimondo - Q4 2013

PAC money received: $6,950

Attorneys Partridge, Snow, and Hahn: $750 
Building Industry PAC: $500
Capitol Communications Group LLC, PAC: $500
Emily's List RI: $1000
IBEW Local 99: $250
Plumbers and Pipefitters: $500
RI Laborers' PAC: $1000
RI Medical PAC: $750
RI Public Employees Education PAC: $1000
United Food and Commercial Workers: $500
Utility Contractors' Association: $200
 
Cash balance ending December 31, 2013: $2,508,647.86
Prev Next

Angel Taveras - Q1 2013

PAC money received: $3,600

Capitol Communications Group, $500
Iron Workers Local 37, $100
IOUE (Intl. Union of Operating Engineers) Local 57: $1000
Moses and Afonso PAC: $1000
Plumbers and Pipefitters Local 51 PAC: $500
RI Carpenters PAC: $250
RI NERCC (NE Regional Council of Carpenters PAC) PAC: $250
 
Cash balance ending March 31, 2013: $560,779.72
Prev Next

Angel Taveras - Q2 2013

PAC money received: $6,550

Attorneys Partridge Snow and Hahn: $250
Attorneys Partridge Snow and Hahn: $750
Building Industry PAC: $500
Chartercare Employee PAC: $250
COX PAC: $250
COX PAC: $750
Hinckley, Allen, Snyder PAC: $1000
Hinckley, Allen, Snyder Rhode Island PAC: $1000
IBEW Local 99: $100
Local 791 UCFW PAC: $500
Providence Firefighters Local 799: $200
RI Troopers Association: $1000
 
Cash balance ending June 30, 2013: $692,590.12
Prev Next

Angel Taveras - Q3 2013

PAC money received: $1,300

Connecticut Healthcare District 1199: $500
Providence Firefighters Local 799: $800

Cash balance as of September 30, 2013: $759,150.22
Prev Next

Angel Taveras - Q4 2013

PAC money received:  $6,100

American Association of University Professionals: $1000
Darrow Everett PAC: $500
Enterprise Holdings PAC of RI: $500
Enterprise Holdings PAC of RI: $500
Middletown Firefighters COPE: $100
RI Laborers Public Employees PAC: $1000
RI Medical PAC: $1000
RI State Association of Firefighters: $1000
United Food and Commercial Workers: $500
 
Cash balance as of December 31, 2013: $1,025,981.62
Prev Next

Allan Fung -- Q1 2013

PAC money received: $1,550*

Amica PAC: $250
Cox PAC: $200
IBEW Local 99: $250
International Brotherhood of Police: $350
RI Troopers Association: $500
 
Cash balance as of March 31, 2013: $160,520.12
 
* A later filing amended the PAC amount to $1,650 and cash balance to $159,520.12.
Prev Next

Allan Fung - Q2 2013

PAC money received: $1,600 

Amica PAC: $250
International Brotherhood of Police: $650
MetLife PAC D:  $200
Opticians PAC: $500
 
Cash balance as of June 30, 2013: $256,498.77
Prev Next

Allan Fung -- Q3 2013

PAC money received: $1,100

CIRI PAC: $100
Darrow Everett: $500
RI Troopers Association: $500
 
Cash balance as of September 30, 2013: $336,553.93
Prev Next

Allan Fung -- Q4 2013

PAC money received: $3,800

Amica / RI PAC: $500
Capitol Communications Group $500
Hinckley, Allen, Snyder: $500
MetLife PAC D: $800
Opticians PAC: $500
RI Medical PAC: $1000
 
Cash balance as of December 31, 2013:  $384,925.44
Prev Next

Ken Block

Quarter 1:  No PAC $; cash balance   $20,000.07
Quarter 2:  No PAC $; cash balance   $73,987.53
Quarter 3:  No PAC $; cash balance $547,685.26
Quarter 4:  No PAC $; cash balance $634,126.60
Prev Next

Clay Pell

Quarter 4 (first report filed): No PAC $, cash balance $1,105,152.43 

 
 

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Comments:

Headline should read Raimondo ahead by 3.6%. Stop playing politics.

Comment #1 by Jackson Teller on 2014 04 11

I have one question for the Raimondo campaign? Why does the only woman in the race not win her demographic in either of the major polls taken to date? And why doesn't the campaign acknowledge that her lead in the latest poll is within the margin of error? I am not a fan of any of the candidates in this race but please...Taveras leads in job approval and among women against the woman candidate! Somebody has some explaining to do.

Comment #2 by Thomas Kolodziejczak on 2014 04 11




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