Brett Broesder: Populist Platform Key to 2012 Electoral Success
Monday, February 13, 2012
Talk may be cheap,but it matters in political campaigns. And, candidates who are utilizing populist rhetoric and positions will seemingly benefit from it in 2012.
On the other hand, those who fail to connect on a populist level are paying an electoral price for it.
For an example, one must look towards former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. After back-to-back victories in South Carolina and Florida, Romney recently commented during a live interview on CNN: “I’m not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there.”
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTRomney’s Infamous “Poor Comment”
As it is now known, the Romney “poor comment” served as media fodder for days, and furthered a storyline developed by his opponents that he is out-of-touch with the majority of Americans.
In fact, a recent Pew Trusts poll found that not only is he out of step with the many voters at-large, but even amidst his fellow Republicans. Amongst registered Republican voters making $30,000 or less, 57 percent believe that the government does too little for poor people.
Since the “poor comment,” Romney has been beaten in three of the last four Primary state elections by former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. And, Santorum has revived his campaign – since an early nudging of Romney during an upset victory in Iowa – by positioning himself as a populist who is in touch with the majority of Americans, which is in contrast to Romney.
Although statistically it is unlikely Santorum will defeat Romney for the Republican nomination,the populist contrast he is presenting will re-appear in much starker terms in the General Election.
President Obama: The Wall Street vs. Main Street Contrast
President Obama’s State of the Union Speech (SOTU) was loaded with populist rhetoric. From messages about bringing manufacturing jobs back to America, to establishing a Financial Crimes Unit aimed at cracking down on fraudsters and protecting consumers, the foreshadowing of his re-election narrative points toward a Wall Street vs. Main Street-esque narrative with likely Republican nominee, Romney.
This enhanced populist positioning from President Obama has thus far proven affective. According to the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, amongst registered voters President Obama now edges Romney in a head-to-head race 51 to 45 percent. This is the first time that the President in a head-to-head vs. Romney has topped 50 percent amongst registered voters.
Furthermore, the poll found that 72 percent of respondents support Obama’s position of raising taxes on Americans with annual incomes of more than $1 million, and 73 percent support raising taxes on businesses that move manufacturing jobs overseas.
Not only will the President – at the top-of-the-ballot nationally – be pushing these themes, but so will Congressional candidates who are looking to ride his coattails for their own electoral bids.
RI CD-1: Contrasting Populist Messages
The race in Rhode Island CD-1 will put two competing populist messages against one-another.
Rep. Cicilline will be in lockstep with President Obama’s populist messaging, which will play well in the Democratic-leaning Ocean State. On the other hand, former State Police Colonel Doherty will – as covered by Ian Donnis at WRNI – seek to paint himself as “non-partisan” and “above ideology.”
The former Providence Mayor, by being in lockstep with positions and rhetoric from President Obama, as well as Senator Whitehouse – both of which will be at the top-of-the-ballot in Rhode Island, and more than likely win by large margins –stands to benefit tremendously from this populist positioning.
Conversely, Doherty – who is running as a Republican and is part of the National Republican Campaign Committee’s (NRCC) “Young Guns” program – will likely be pushed to adopt unpopular positions in the Ocean State, including a repeal of the new health care law and privatizing social security. In that case, he’ll likely fall to the same electoral fate as former state representative John Loughlin in 2010.
Therefore, if the current political landscape persists through General Election Day 2012, Rep. Cicilline’s populist narrative is likely to prevail and catapult the incumbent to a second term.
This year, politicians should take note – and pay close attention to public and internal data surrounding key issues – and more than likely will find that populist rhetoric is a key to success in 2012.
Brett Broesder is a former campaign manager for Peter F. Kilmartin’s successful Attorney General run in 2010, and also served as the policy and legislative director for the office of Rhode Island Attorney General. He is currently a public-relations consultant in New York, NY.
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