A ‘Topsy-Turvy’ White House—Sunday Political Brunch - March 18, 2018

Sunday, March 18, 2018

 

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Mark Curtis

It’s been a topsy-turvy week at the White House, with another big departure and the return of a familiar face. Is the President steering the ship on the right course? Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

“Rexit” – The departure of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson after 14 months is not a surprise. He and President Trump seemed an odd fit at the start. Yes, Tillerson - like Trump - had tremendous international business experience as the CEO of Exxon, which is why he leap-frogged over more qualified candidates. But his political experience – like Trump’s – was nil. Of course, the head of any major international oil company is going to put him on the stage with many foreign leaders and that was an asset. I had been predicting that UN Ambassador Nikki Haley would succeed Tillerson, but she’s been at odds with Trump at times, who picked CIA Director Mike Pompeo instead.

“Intelligence is Everything” – I am intrigued by the choice of Pompeo. But elevating the CIA Director to State tells me something is in the offing. Giving the daily intelligence briefing, Pompeo has Trump’s ear. It makes we wonder if they know of a major terrorism plot on the horizon. It’s been nearly 17 years since the 9-11 attacks. A lot of the weaponry – especially cyberterrorism - has changed. I hope I’m wrong, but I wonder if they are on the verge of trying to stop a major attack, and that’s why he leap-frogged over Haley.

“Larry, to the Contrary” – Economist Larry Kudlow has accepted the nomination to be Chairman of the National Economic Council. Kudlow, a media savvy, business news pundit is widely known and respected, and is close to Trump. The one thing that may save this “out-of-the-box” (okay, weird Presidency), is that the economy – for now – is steaming along very well. Trump is no different than any other President. As Ronald Reagan famously asked in the 1980 campaign, “Are you better off today, then you were four years ago?” Most people said no and Reagan won in a crushing landslide. If the U.S. economy keeps cooking, Trump could have a second term if he wants one, despite all the controversy that surrounds him.

“Oh, Oprah” – People scoff at the idea of Orpah Winfrey running for President of the United States. I believe she has serious shot. Here’s why. She’s a self-made billionaire; she’s media savvy and loves the spotlight; she has a genuine consistency with groups of people who feel they have no voice; she’s not a professional politician; and, she’s both loved and loathed depending on who you ask. Does any of this sound vaguely familiar? Yes, she and Trump share a similar resume (though there are lot of differences, too). Both have appeal beyond traditional candidates in their own parties. "Oh, I'd love Oprah to win," Trump said. "I'd love to beat Oprah. I know her weakness." I’m telling you she has a legitimate chance.

“PA Congress” -- If the razor thin margin of victory holds, Democrat Conor Lamb will be the new Congressman in Western Pennsylvania. It’s a traditionally Republican district that Donald Trump carried by 20 points in 2016. But caution to those who interpret this as a national trend. This marks the second time Democrats have won a special Congressional election since the 2016 election, while Republicans won five. So, to those who interpret this as national anti-Trump trend, I say do the math. On the other hand, Republicans - who had a 5 to 0 run before the Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections - I say momentum can be a cruel foe. 2018 is getting interesting!

“Stormy Daniels” – I must tell you, I think the President’s sex scandal is drawing big yawn nationally, based on comments to my article last week. If President Trump had an affair with the porn star in 2006 - long before he was President – few of my readers seems to care. As I always say, if the economy is cooking, and national security seems good, the public doesn’t care about indiscretions. Former President Bill Clinton is “Exhibit-A” and President Trump seems to be riding in the same canoe.

“He’s No Snow-Flake” -- “I do think the president will have a challenge from the Republican Party, I think there should be,” Senator Jeff Flake said. “I also think that there will be an independent challenge, particularly if the Democrats insist on putting somebody up from the far left of the party.” Might one of those candidates be retiring Senator Jeff Flake, (R) Arizona. My gut says yes, and that spells trouble. In my lifetime any sitting President challenged for re-nomination from within his own party, was ousted. The list includes Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush. Watch out!

“End of Teacher Strike” – The nine-day statewide teachers strike I covered in West Virginia is now over. Teachers and all other state employees received a five-percent pay raise. Inspired by the massive walkout, teachers in Kentucky and Oklahoma considered similar job actions. Will this have a surge for Democrats nationwide who support organized labor? It was a huge win, but can the momentum be sustained in 2018? The teachers chanted loudly, “We’ll remember in November!” outside the House and Senate Chambers. This bears watching as a potential national trend.

“Student Walk Out” – The nationwide student walkout over gun control was extraordinary this week. As I pointed out in recent weeks since the mass killing at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High in Broward County, Florida, the times may be-a-changin’ when it comes to gun control issues. The key to this issue is momentum and voter turnout. Typically, young voters ages 18 to 30 don’t turnout. They were huge for Barack Obama in 2008, but many vanished by 2012 and 2016. Will they be back in 2018, and 2020? My gut tells me yes, but they must be vocal and active through the election cycle. They can’t just march on Washington, March 24, and then go home. As mentioned above, success in politics is about seizing momentum.

Your thoughts? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

Mark Curtis Ed.D., is a nationally-award winning political author reporter, and analyst, He is presently Chief Political Reporter for the five Nexstar Media TV stations serving the five bordering states and the District of Columbia.

 

Related Slideshow: GoLocal: Benchmark Poll, October 2017

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Sponsor: GoLocalProv

Sample: N=403

Rhode Island General Election Voters Margin of Error: +/- 4.9% at 95% Confidence Level

Interviewing Period: October 9-11, 2017

Mode: Landline (61%) and Mobile (39%)

Telephone Directed by: John Della Volpe, SocialSphere, Inc.

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Are you registered to vote at this address?

Yes: 100%

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When it comes to voting, do you consider yourself to be affiliated with the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, Moderate, or Unaffiliated with a major party?

Unaffiliated: 49%

Democrat: 32%

Republican: 15%

Moderate: .4%

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Next year, in November of 2018, there will be a statewide general election for Governor and many other state offices. How likely is it that you will vote in this election?

Will you definitely be voting, will you probably be voting, are you 50-50...

Definitely be voting: 78%

Probably be voting: 13%

50-50: 9%

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In general, would you say things in Rhode Island are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?

Right track: 39%

Wrong track: 45%

Mixed: 10%

Don't know/Refused: .6%

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What would you say is the number one problem facing Rhode Island that you would like the Governor to address?

Jobs and economy:  21%

Education: 12%

Taxes: 12%

Roads: 12%

State budget: 9%

Corruption/Public integrity: .8%

Healthcare: 3%

Governor: 3%

Homelessness: 2%

Immigration: 2%

Other: 7%

Don’t know: .9%

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Over the past three years or so, would you say the economy in Rhode Island has improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?

Changed for the better: 35%

Changed for the worse: 16%

Not changed at all: 43%

Don't know/Refused: 5%

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Over the same time, has your family's financial situation improved, gotten worse, or not changed at all?

Changed for the better: 26%

Changed for the worse: 19%

Not changed at all: 54%

Don't know/Refused: 1%

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Recently, a proposal has been made to permit the issuance of $81 million in bonds by the State to build a new stadium for the Pawtucket Red Sox. If there was an election today on this issue, would you vote to approve or reject issuing $81 million in financing supported moral obligation bonds to build the stadium?

Net: Approve: 28%

Definitely approve: 15%

Probably approve: 14%

Net: Reject: 67%

Probably reject: 19%

Definitely reject: 48%

Don't know: 4%

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Could you please tell me your age?

18-24: 7%

25-34: 15%

35-44: 15%

45-54: 20%

55-64: 17%

65+: 25%

Don't know/refused: 1%

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What was the last grade you completed in school?

0-11: 2%

High school grad: 16%

Technical/Vocational school: 1%

Some college: 23%

College grad: 34%

Graduate degree: 24%

Don't know/refused: 1%

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The next question is about the total income of YOUR HOUSEHOLD for the PAST 12 MONTHS. Please include your income PLUS the income of all members living in your household (including cohabiting partners and armed forces members living at home).

$50,000 or less: 27%

More $50,000 but less than $75,000: 13%

More $75,000 but less than $100,000: 13%

More $100,000 but less than $150,000: 17%

$150,000 or more: 13%

Don't know/refused: 17%

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What particular ethnic group or nationality - such as English, French, Italian, Irish, Latino, Jewish, African American, and so forth - do you consider yourself a part of or feel closest to?

American/None: 21%

English: 13%

Italian: 13%

Irish: 12%

Black or African American: 6%

Latino/Hispanic: 6%

French: 6%

Portuguese: 3%

Jewish: 3%

German: 1%

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Would you say that Donald Trump has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as President?


Excellent: 13%
Good: 12%
Fair: 14%
Poor: 57%
Never heard of:  0%
Cannot rate: 3%

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Would you say that Jack Reed has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a United States Senator?

Excellent: 22%
Good: 29%
Fair: 23%
Poor: 15%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate: 6%

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Would you say that Sheldon Whitehouse has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a United States Senator?

Excellent: 17%
Good: 22%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 28%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate: 7%

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Would you say that David Cicilline has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a Member of Congress?

Excellent: 9%
Good: 29%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 27%
Never heard of: 6%
Cannot rate:  8%

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Would you say that James Langevin has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as a Member of Congress?

Excellent: 7%
Good: 30%
Fair: 20%
Poor: 18%
Never heard of: 13%
Cannot rate: 11%

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Would you say that Gina Raimondo has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Governor?

Excellent: 6%
Good: 28%
Fair: 30%
Poor: 31%
Never heard of: 1%
Cannot rate: 3%

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Would you say that Daniel McKee has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Lieutenant Governor?


Excellent: 3%
Good: 16%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 8%
Never heard of: 26%
Cannot rate: 25%

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Would you say that Peter Kilmartin has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Attorney General?


Excellent: 3%
Good: 20%
Fair: 28%
Poor: 17%
Never heard of: 13%
Cannot rate: 19%

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Would you say that Seth Magaziner has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as General Treasurer?

Excellent: 4%
Good: 18%
Fair: 24%
Poor: 13%
Never heard of: 21%
Cannot rate: 21%

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Would you say that Nellie Gorbea has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Secretary of State?

Excellent: 5%
Good: 21%
Fair: 21%
Poor: 10%
Never heard of: 20%
Cannot rate: 23%

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Would you say that Jorge Elorza has done an excellent good, fair or poor job as Mayor of Providence?

Excellent: 4%
Good: 24%
Fair: 24%
Poor: 22%
Never heard of: 9%
Cannot rate: 15%

 
 

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