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NEW POLL:  Shows Raimondo Over Chafee and Doherty Over Taveras

Thursday, January 31, 2013

 

It may be early and the polling technique may not be the most respected by pollsters, but the first poll for the 2014 Governor's race is out and it has some surprises.

"Lincoln Chafee's prospects for a second term as Governor of Rhode Island are looking pretty dim. Only 33% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 59% who disapprove. That ties him for the second most unpopular Governor in the country in our polling- the only person with worse numbers is Pat Quinn of Illinois," said Public Policy Polling (PPP). The poll had a sampling of 614 and was conducted between January 28 and 30.

According to PPP

Chafee struggles in four different scenarios. But the 2014 race is likely to be a complex one.  Democrat Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras (if both ran in Democratic primary) would spend millions pounding one another. 

While the general public know all of Chafee's warts, few people are aware of Raimondo's record as a venture capitalist or the details of Taveras' budget woes.  Providence Mayors have not had a great history of winning the Governor's office. Both Buddy Cianci and Joe Paolino tried and failed. In a four way race (Taveras as the Democrat, Doherty GOP, Chafee and Block), Taveras loses to Doherty by 5 points.

Regardless of the scenario, Chafee faces an uphill battle: either Gina Raimondo or Angel Taveras on the Democratic side, either Brendan Doherty or Allan Fung on the Republican side, Chafee running as an independent, and Moderate Party candidate Ken Block. Chafee finishes third in every single one, running behind both the Democratic and Republican candidates.

According to PPP, "In two scenarios testing Chafee as the Democratic candidate he finishes second, running 4 points behind the Republican candidates we tested, Brendan Doherty and Allan Fung."

Overall 57% of voters don't want Chafee to seek reelection next year. Twenty percent want him to run as an independent and 18% think he should run for election again as a Democrat.

Raimondo #1

"The early front runner in next year's race is Raimondo. In addition to leading the Democratic primary field, she also leads every general election scenario we tested. She leads Brendan Doherty by 4 points and Allan Fung by 12 points in four way contests with Chafee in the picture as an independent," said PPP.  But remember, Raimondo needs to get through a Democratic primary in which organized labor is a significant force and labor is focused on beating back a Raimondo effort.

Other Key numbers:

In scenarios not including Chafee:

Raimondo leads Doherty by 12 points.

Raimondo leads Fung by 19 points in three-way contests.

57% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Raimondo, and her popularity holds true across party lines.

Majorities of independents (63/19), Democrats (53/23), and Republicans (52/23) all have a positive opinion of her.

See the full survey HERE

Polling Strategy

According to PPP, "(We) employs Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology to poll quickly, cost-effectively, accurately and on a wide range of issues. Since 2001 we have conducted surveys for politicians & political organizations, unions, consultants, and businesses." This polling technique does not connect to cellphone users.

 

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