2018 Gov’s Playbook: Fractionalization of the Moderate and Conservative Vote
Monday, October 08, 2018
Three-way races for governor — now the norm in Rhode Island — are if nothing else unpredictable.
Four years ago, the Moderate Party candidate secured 21 percent of the vote. And, four years earlier the race was even more unpredictable.
In July of 2010 — four months before the election, a Brown University Poll had Frank Caprio in the lead in the race for Governor.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST“The survey was conducted July 27-30, 2010, by researchers at the A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and the John Hazen White Public Opinion Laboratory at Brown University. It is based on a statewide random sample of 702 registered Rhode Island voters. Overall, the poll had a margin of error of about plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
If the general election for governor were held today, 27.9 percent of people would vote for Caprio, and 26.5 percent would support Chafee. These numbers are within the margin of error, making the race between Caprio and Chafee a statistical tie. However, about more than 30 percent of voters are still undecided. Republicans John Robitaille and Victor Moffitt had 7 percent and 2 percent of support, respectively, while Moderate Party candidate Kenneth Block had support from 3 percent of respondents."
Caprio finished a distant third and Robitaille, the GOP nominee was edged by Chafee.
2018 Shake-Up
This past week the 2018 governor’s race saw a group of top Republicans jumping to support the nomination of independent Joe Trillo. The announcement that Patricia Morgan was endorsing Trillo was a blow to GOP unity and Cranston Mayor Allan Fung.
Coming this Thursday, Harvard’s John Della Volpe releases a new statewide poll in partnership with GoLocalProv. He will appear on GoLocal LIVE.
Della Volpe, who is Director of Polling at Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics, will outline many other key issues facing Rhode Island including education, crime, and the economy.
Della Volpe’s Socialsphere has conducted research for the United State Marine Corps, Politico, the Boston Globe, the Boston Red Sox and numerous other businesses and governmental entities. He is a regular on MSNBC’s Morning Joe.
In June, release GoLocal released a gubernatorial matchup poll conducted by Della Volpe. See the results here.
Related Slideshow: 2018 Governor’s Race Playbook - October 8, 2018
Related Articles
- 2018 Governor’s Race Playbook: Chaotic Week Ends With Question - Will Raimondo Veto Mattiello’s Bill
- 2018 Governor’s Race Playbook - Is Raimondo Tipping Her Hand?
- 2018 Governor’s Race Playbook: Raimondo’s Bad Week - Is the Primary a Horserace?
- 2018 Governor’s Race Playbook: It is a Brawl in June — Can the Pace Continue?
- 2018 Governor’s Race Playbook - Can Little Known Muñoz Disrupt The Gov’s Race?
- 2018 Governor’s Race Playbook - Every Monday
- 2018 Governor’s Race Playbook - Will Democrats Buy Sinclair? May 14, 2018
- 2018 Governor’s Race Playbook - Gorbea Polling Raimondo and Brown
- 2018 Governor’s Race Playbook - Raimondo’s Attack Ad Includes Fung’s Wife
- 2018 Governor’s Race Playbook - Raimondo Refuses to Answer Questions on UHIP
- 2018 Gov’s Playbook: Race Between Raimondo, Fung and Trillo Is On
- 2018 Gov’s Playbook — Raimondo, Fung, and Trillo — What Are the Roads to Victory
- 2018 Gov’s Playbook: GOP’s Growing Problems
- 2018 Gov’s Playbook: Raimondo Lands Biden, Brown Fails to Tap Sanders, and Morgan’s Moves
- 2018 Gov’s Playbook: Morgan Scores Points, Raimondo Goes Negative
- 2018 Gov’s Playbook: Fung & Raimondo Battle Over Immigration — Who Is a Liar?
- 2018 Gov’s Race Playbook — Newport’s Wealthiest Come Out for Raimondo
- 2018 Gov’s Playbook: Who Has Momentum?
- 2018 Gov’s Playbook: Fractionalization of the Moderate and Conservative Vote