Top 10 Most Vulnerable State Lawmakers
Monday, February 20, 2012
The 1st Congressional District battle may be the only local race receiving any attention, but it's not the one worth keeping an eye on over the next nine months.
GoLocaLProv breaks down the top ten General Assembly members that could face difficult challenges in September's primary or the general election.
1) John McCauley (Rep - District 1)
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTLong before the Feds raided his office last November, rumors that the Deputy Speaker would not be running for re-election were in full swing. Rep. McCauley has yet to confirm that he won't seek his seat again, but here's one indication he could be out: In the newly drawn district maps, he actually finds himself in District 3, which is represented by Edith Ajello.
No matter what McCauley does, his seat will likely be ripe for the picking. But don't expect the seat to be handed over to Independent Daniel Grzych, who lost 75%-25% in 2010. Several potential candidates (from inside and outside the district) have expressed interest in a seat House leadership will have a close eye on.
2) Dan Gordon (Rep - District 71)
After a tumultuous 2011 that included revelations about an extensive arrest record and raised questions about his military service, Rep. Gordon is likely to face both a Republican primary in September and if he should win, a Democratic challenge in November.
Gordon has been highly critical of House Republicans, including Minority Leader Brian C. Newberry and GOP sources say they are actively recruiting a candidate to run for the seat. On the Democratic side, George Alzaibak, who lost by less than 50 votes in 2010, has indicated he plans to run again.
3) Robert Watson (Rep - District 30)
There is some question as to whether the former House Minority Leader will seek re-election after two arrests in nine months, but if he does, he'll be opposed by the well-funded Dr. Mark Schwager.
Schwager, who lost in the 2010 District 35 Senate race, loaned his campaign $12,000 last fall and he currently has just over $13,000 in his account, more than double that of Watson. A Republican is also likely to run in a primary against Watson.
4) Leo Medina (Rep - District 12)
Rep. Medina was among the handful of state lawmakers arrested in 2011 after being accused of swindling a friend in a life insurance policy scheme.
Medina narrowly defeated Joe Almeida in 2010 and will almost certainly face a rematch again this year. Almeida, who held the seat from 2002-2010, has just over $3,000 in his campaign account. It is unclear how much Medina has because he did not file campaign finance reports at all in 2011.
5) Beth Moura (Sen - District 19)
Senator Moura is another Republican who doesn't have too many allies within her own caucus and is almost certain to face a primary followed by a Democratic challenger in the general election.
Moura recently had a public spat with Frank Maher over her attendance on Smith Hill and has also butted heads privately with State Rep. Doreen Costa.
6) Donald Lally - (Rep - District 33)
The veteran Rep. has always had strong support from labor, but that cozy relationship may be damaged thanks to his vote in favor of pension reform last fall.
Now Lally, who hasn't won by more than ten points since 2004, will face a rematch against Republican Phil Duquette in November. But don't be surprised if a younger union-backed Democrat attempts to take him out in a primary.
7) Spencer Dickinson (Rep - District 35)
To gauge just how much influence the unions will have over the 2012 elections in Rhode Island, look no further than the District 35 race. Rep. Dickinson voted against pension reform and then many believe he was targeted by House leadership during the redistricting process. Now Dickinson will face a rematch with Michael Rice in the Democratic primary in September.
Dickinson defeated Rice in 2010 after the incumbent voted in favor of a portion of that year's budget which cut teacher pension benefits. Rice, who previously had strong support from the unions, was targeted and replaced.
8) Ed O'Neill - (Sen - District 17)
The well-funded Independent will be 66 by the election and will need to introduce himself to several new neighborhoods after his district was revamped during redistricting.
Will he be up the to challenge? He most likely will not face a challenge from the right, but progressive groups are said to be lining up an opponent.
9) Mike Tarro - (Rep - District 8)
Rep. Tarro came under fire last year after a public spat with the Taveras administration that resulted in his termination as assistant city solicitor. Mayor Taveras and other local Democrats criticized the way he handled the demolition of a former neighborhood school, a property his family now owns. There is also some question as to whether Tarro has support from leadership (he is against same-sex marriage, but voted for civil unions).
Tarro already has one Democratic challenger (progressive Libby Kimzey), but all eyes are on former Mayor and City Council President John Lombardi, who says he is considering running in a primary as well.
10) John Carnevale - (Rep - District 13)
After being indicted on rape charges last year, Rep. Carnevale has to be included on any list of vulnerable legislators. However, Carnevale ran unopposed in both the 2008 and 2010 Democratic primaries and soundly defeated his Republican challenger in the general election in 2010. He also voted against pension reform, which means he will continue to receive support from the unions.
In the heavily Democratic district, it's unlikely a Republican will be able to knock him off, but he will probably face the first primary of his political career in September.
Editor's Note: The original version of this story included an incorrect spelling for Senator Ed O'Neill.
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