10 Key Factors that Could Decide the 1st Congressional District
Thursday, July 05, 2012
The 4th of July has come and gone and now it’s time for the race for Congress in the 1st District to heat up.
With Congressman David Cicilline facing a difficult primary against Anthony Gemma and Republican Brendan Doherty still waiting in the wings, GoLocalProv breaks down ten factors that could decide the entire race.
1) The ‘Right Wing’ Republican VS the Guy Who ‘Ruined Providence’
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTEven though Congressman Cicilline faces a Democratic primary with Gemma, one can expect a summer of endless rhetoric coming from the incumbent and Doherty’s camp. Cicilline will attempt to paint the Republican challenger as a right wing extremist who is pro-life and anti-immigrant, a tactic that worked for him two years ago against John Loughlin.
Doherty, meanwhile, is labeling himself as a moderate who isn’t tied to the Grover Norquist tax pledge or the Tea Party. His goal will be to remind voters of the Congressman’s final year or two as Mayor of Providence and the fact that current Mayor Angel Taveras inherited a $110 million structural deficit when he took office. Earlier this year, Cicilline apologized for saying the city was in “excellent fiscal condition” during his 2010 campaign.
2) Jobs/Economy
Gemma, the Democratic businessman, is the only candidate in the race who can legitimately claim he has created jobs in his career. The question is whether he can sell voters on his lofty goal to create 10,000 jobs in Rhode Island over five years and kick off the “new industrial revolution” of the 21st century.
Cicilline and Doherty are taking more of a traditional approach. For much of his first term in Congress, Cicilline has promoted his Make It in America Block Grant legislation as a way to restore manufacturing jobs in the country. Doherty’s strategy so far has been to call for changes to the tax code and to cut the red tape for small businesses.
3) The Elderly Vote
In 2010, Cicilline picked up senior citizens after John Loughlin compared Social Security to a Ponzi scheme. He’ll attempt to do the same with Doherty this time around, but the Republican challenger has the respect of the elderly as a former head of the State Police and has repeatedly stated that he will not support privatization of Social Security and/or Medicare. He also says he is in line with Presidents Obama and Clinton in supporting raising the wage cap and expanding benefits for low income seniors.
4) Women's Issues
Both Gemma and Doherty are pro-life, which likely helps Cicilline when it comes to fundraising and courting the women’s vote. As detailed in a recent Phoenix article, Cicilline appears ready to go all-in for the female vote and the polls suggest his strategy is working so far.
5) Obama/Romney
Traditional thinking suggests that in a state where Obama cruised to victory in 2010, having the President and Senator Whitehouse at the top of the ticket will help turn out Democratic voters and carry candidates like Cicilline or Gemma to victory. But even though the 1st district is one of the most liberal Congressional districts in the country, Doherty, who was an early supporter of Republican Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney, may be able to bring the former Massachusetts Governor back to Rhode Island at some point during the campaign, a strategy that would certainly energize his base.
6) Obamacare
With Rhode Island considered to be a state leading the way when it comes to President Obama’s Affordable Care Act, the issue will clearly come up during the race. It’s also an issue where Doherty and Cicilline (and Gemma) completely disagree on. The problem for Doherty is that by not supporting health care reform, Cicilline has the opportunity to put him on the defensive with the elderly. At the same time, by touting the reforms too much, Cicilline risks alienating himself from small business owners who are concerned their costs are going to skyrocket.
7) The House Majority
It appears as though Republicans will remain in the majority no matter who wins in the 1st District. Doherty’s strategy will be to remind voters that electing him to majority will make him a more effective Congressman than Cicilline (who is closely aligned with Democratic leadership) or Gemma, who would be a first term members of the minority party.
8) The Gemma Factor
According to the last WPRI poll, Anthony Gemma wasn’t too far behind Congressman Cicilline among primary voters. Unlike his 2010 run where he spent a significant amount of time on talk radio and essentially calling Cicilline a criminal, Gemma has flown under the radar in 2012, choosing instead to improve his ground game. But if he does win the primary, the question is whether he can continue to remain disciplined while trying to separate himself from Doherty.
Fundraising is also a factor. Gemma has indicated that money won’t be an issue in the race, but how much will he be willing to spend after the primary? One also has to wonder whether his recently announcement that he and his wife plan to divorce after 17 years will change his mind set.
9) Campaign Finance Reform
The Cicilline campaign will suggest that corporations (led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce) are going to attempt to buy the 1st District seat for Doherty. Cicilline, meanwhile, will point to his opposition to Citizens United and allowing outside influences dictate a local election. The question here is whether voters really understand (or care about) the issue.
10) Immigration Policy
Redistricting helped Congressman Cicilline pick up a significant portion of South Providence, a neighborhood that helped the Congressman become Mayor in 2002. The Congressman is still well-liked in that neighborhood and will likely try to paint Doherty, who supported the Secure Communities initiative as head of the State Police, as the anti-immigrant candidate. But Doherty, who also has support based on years of coaching in those same neighborhoods, will need to spend time convincing voters that Secure Communities is nothing like Arizona’s “let me see your papers” law.
Dan McGowan can be reached at [email protected].
