What Fung Needs to Do to Win
Friday, October 03, 2014
Recent polling shows that Allan Fung can be elected Rhode Island’s next governor this November, so long as he can win over Rhode Island’s crucial bloc of independent and unaffiliated voters.
“Allan Fung needs to get the majority of the independent vote in the general election if he wants to defeat Gina Raimondo,” said Brown University political scientist and longtime Rhode Island political observer Wendy Schiller.
Independent & Unaffiliated Voters Up For Grabs
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTDemocrat Gina Raimondo leads Republican Allan Fung 42%-37% in a new public opinion poll of 750 likely Rhode Island voters released by Rasmussen Reports last Saturday, with 11% of voters saying they are supporting another candidate and 11% still undecided.
“Unlike the primary, where most independents appeared to have voted in the Democratic primary, they are now up for grabs and if he can persuade them that he is a fiscal conservative who will work with business and labor, without giving away too many benefits, he will be highly competitive among this crucial swing voting bloc,” said Schiller.
While Rhode Island has not elected a Democrat Governor since Bruce Sundlun in 1992, there are not enough registered Republicans in the state for Fung to win without also locking down the independent and unaffiliated vote, according to Johnston & Wales University professor June Speakman.
"Mayor Fung got 17,000 votes in the primary. If Ken Block's endorsement of Fung brings most of Block's 14,000 voters to Fung, he still has a long way to go to gather enough votes to beat Raimondo. There are, however, hundreds of thousands of eligible voters who have not yet stated their preference. And many of them are in communities that have long voted for Republicans for Governor," said Speakman.
Speakman identified some of the regions and municipalities that have been traditionally inclined towards Republican gubernatorial candidates.
"If Fung targets his campaign on those suburban communities and small cities and towns, he may be able to top Raimondo. Except for East Providence, the entire East Bay voted for Carcieri in 2006, and many of those communities supported Robitaille in 2010. North of Providence--Lincoln, Cumberland, Smithfield and North Smithfield--also prefer Republican governors, but this is Raimondo's home turf and may be a harder sell. And of course, Fung has the home field advantage in Cranston and Warwick," said Speakman.
According to Rhode Island political operative Jeff Britt, who served as campaign manager to Fung’s Republican primary opponent Ken Block, Fung has a steep hill to climb in winning over this crucial bloc of voters.
“I just don’t see independents being an easy demographic target for Allan,” said Britt. “In the data we saw from our own polling during the Block campaign, Gina was as popular if not more popular with independents than with Democrats and she was actually fairly popular with fiscally conservative Republicans. The people who swung over to support Carcieri over Myrth York are favorable towards Gina and like her pro-business message.”
According to Britt, who has worked for Republican governor Donald Carcieri, and on Frank Caprio’s bid for governor in 2010, Raimondo’s ability to appeal to independents and Republicans sets this year’s gubernatorial race apart from previous election years.
“In previous election years, what we have seen is that the Republican candidate has been the obvious choice for independent and unaffiliated voters, but what we saw in our own polling and door-to-door efforts during the primary is that this year Gina is the obvious choice among independents,” said Britt. “The question independent and unaffiliated swing voters are going to want to know is “how are you going to fix Rhode Island? Allan is going to need to start talking about that because Gina already is.”
The Rasmussen poll found that Fung holds a slight 38% to 35% edge among voters not affiliated with either party.
"Unaffiliated voters tend to be late deciders and less politically active, which means that Fung will need to get his message across in a bold and exciting way to get their attention,” said veteran Rhode Island pollster Victor Profughi.
Tacking Center on Policy
According to political experts, Fung will need to readdress some of the more conservative positions he took during the primary campaign – particularly on the issues of gun control and abortion.
“To win the primary, Allan Fung staked out some pretty conservative positions, which he will now need to backtrack onto appeal to a wider audience,” said Britt. “He sought the NRA endorsement, and there is video footage and pictures of him shooting guns. He also sought and got the Right to Life endorsement.”
“As popular as the NRA is in Republican circles, gun violence is a major concern for Independents in Rhode Island and around the country. Pro-life positioning is a losing position among general election voters 70%-30% --based on my own 14 years experience with polling for both Governor Carcieri and Frank Caprio’s in 2010,” said Britt.
“In terms of the NRA, it depends if Gina Raimondo brings that up in the debates or not. As for pro-life, he is on record as being pro-choice but received the right to life endorsement anyway which is a curious thing, although he did say he is personally opposed to abortion. Still, his public policy on choice is the same as Raimondo's,” said Schiller.
According to the Rasmussen poll, Raimondo holds a significant lead over Fung on social issues (43%-31%) and voters trust Raimondo more to handle government spending (38% to 32%) and government ethics and corruption (37% to 31%). That being said, nearly a third of voters don’t know whom to trust more on all four issues, which presents an opportunity for Fung to pick up ground.
“The only thing that might trip him up with independents is his position against raising the minimum wage beyond $9 an hour. Independents in RI support are a very diverse group, and they may not want more government spending, but they are not necessarily opposed to a living wage,” said Schiller.
The Rasmussen poll also found that half of voters who either think the budget situation has improved or stayed the same support Raimondo, while Fung leads 45% to 34% among those who think the situation has gotten worse.
“If I was advising Mayor Fung I would focus on the Rhode Island economy and remind people that the Democrats have been in control of the State House for 75 years and we are at the bottom of the list for economic ranking nationwide,” said former Chairman of the Rhode Island Young Republicans, Travis Rowley.
Messaging is Key
According to political insiders, Fung will not be able to win if he runs the kind of negative campaign that he used to defeat Block in the primary.
“The general election is a different ballgame than the primary. His attacks on Block were effective but attacking Gina will be counterproductive,” said Profughi. “I doubt he has new attacks against her that we haven’t already heard, and the attacks against Gina attacks that we have heard have been largely focused on her anti-union positions which won’t resonate with independent swing voters.”
“Allan’s problem is that he is not running against a traditional liberal Democrat. I’m not sure that attacking Gina is the best way to go. What he needs to do to win is define himself,” said Britt.
To date, the Fung campaign and its surrogates are not holding back in attacking Raimondo in their messaging and advertising.
“Allan Fung is an experienced leader with a vision to grow Rhode Island's economy, and restore confidence and accountability in state government. Rhode Island is headed down the wrong path, and all Democrat Gina Raimondo brings to the table is more of the same washed up policies that are sinking the state today,” said Republican Governor’s Association spokesperson Jon Thompson.
Raimondo, who revealed her willingness to attack her opponents in the primary, has a campaign team that has proven intself in negative campaign tactics.
“ [Raimondo campaign manager] Eric Hyers ran David Cicilline’s campaign against Brendan Doherty and did a great job at painting Doherty as a right wing hardliner that couldn’t be trusted,” said Britt.
Ultimatley, political experts agree, the Fung campaign must deploy its resources carefully, with focused and targeted messaging that resonates strongest with the independent and unaffiliated swing voters who will decide this race.
“Outside of Cranston and Warwick he is not as well known as his opponent. He will need to define himself to voters statewide call attention to the sharp differences between him and Gina and clarify where he stands,” said Profughi.
"As always in Rhode Island politics, the personal touch in important, so the more time Fung spends on the trail shaking hands and speaking to seniors--in those targeted communities--the more support he will garner," said Speakman.
Related Slideshow: The Scoop: Fung Poll Shows Dead Heat With Raimondo
Related Articles
- The Scoop: Block Endorses Fung; Elorza, Almonte, Magaziner Pick up Endorsements, and More
- The Scoop: Cianci’s New Plan, Fung Got New TV and More
- The Scoop: Fung’s Plan to Reform Taxes, Gorbea Adds to Campaign Team, and More
- Fungs Wins RI GOP Gubernatorial Primary
- The Scoop: Fung Poll Shows Dead Heat With Raimondo
- Fung Opposes Chafee Administration Pay Hikes
- NEW: United Steelworkers Endorse Gina Raimondo For Governor
- NEW: Fung Calls on Raimondo to Release Hedge Fund Research
