Political Pundits on Caprio’s Chances in 2014
Monday, April 29, 2013
The recent announcement that Frank Caprio is looking to run for General Treasurer in 2014 has Rhode Island talking. What are his chances?
Caprio, currently Managing Director of the Providence offices of Chatham Capital, an Atlanta-based Venture Capital & Private Equity firm, had previously served in elected office for 20 years including his term as General Treasurer of State of Rhode Island from 2006 to 2010.
Pundits Weigh In
Darrell West, former Director of the Taubman Center for Public Policy at Brown University and current Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at The Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., offered his thoughts on Caprio's announcement.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST"There are plenty of examples of second and third acts in politics," said West. "Obviously, his [2010] gubernatorial campaign didn't end well, but time heals those types of wounds."
West continued, "My sense is that Caprio a very credible candidate for General Treasurer in 2014, of course. He's someone who's always loved public service, and he's got a demonstrated ability to raise money."
"Caprio had a good track record while in office as General Treasurer. He didn't do as much in private equities [as General Treasurer Gina Raimondo]," said West. "That will certainly be a notable contrast right now."
Rhode Island College Associate Professor of Communications Valerie Endress had the following to say regarding Caprio's potential in 2014.
"No former officeholder or candidate would want the last words of their biography to focus upon a spectacular miscalculation. The “shove it” comment will forever remain part of Frank Caprio’s story until he creates a new narrative," said Endress, referring to the statement made by Caprio to President Obama in 2010 just prior to the gubernatorial election, when Obama declined to make an endorsement in the race.
"Traditionally, the best way for a candidate to rehabilitate a tarnished image is to declare early, sit tight while the transgression once again plays itself out in the news cycle, then move the campaign forward on his or her own terms—usually with important endorsements or a bold plan," said Endress. "With all the other pieces in place—name recognition, proven fundraising ability, and experience in office—look for the narrative to change very quickly in Caprio’s favor."
"I've heard reports that Caprio has been fundraising for Raimondo," continued Endress. "Look for Raimondo to return the favor and that might be the important endorsement Caprio will get in this campaign. In many ways, Caprio and Raimondo are cut from the same political cloth."
Victor Profughi, Professor and Director of the Bureau of Government and Research Services at Rhode Island College, suggested a number of elements to consider when looking at Caprio's prospects in 2014.
"Caprio's announcement came as a surprise to me, actually. I hadn't give much thought to a comeback," said Profughi. "He did have a positive record as General Treasurer, which works to his advantage. Seeing as he's interested, it's probably a wise move to come out early and try and get ahead. His announcement could be a deterrent for some people who might be thinking of getting in the race."
"Running as a Democrat, which we assume he will, the question would then be whether the party faithful will get behind him or not. If Raimondo does decide to run for Governor, watch to see if Caprio publicly supports her and vice versa -- it can be seen as a sign that he's looking to re-establish his credentials as a 'good D.' The more liberal and progressive faction of the party might have been left with a bad taste in their mouth following the last election," said Profughi.
Governor's Race a Factor?
Touching upon the speculation surrounding the 2014 gubernatorial race, Profughi offered the following.
"There appears to be a division already brewing for the 2014 Governor's race, if Gina and [Providence Mayor] Angel Taveras are both looking to run, as is speculated right now. That right there creates a rift between more conservative and progressive elements of the party."
"The unions are always a factor. And it's no secret that labor elements of the party aren't happy with [Raimondo]. If Caprio were to align himself with Gina, he'd be indicating an anti-union stance. However, on the flip side, that could also work to his favor depending on the voting base," said Profughi.
Profughi summed up his thoughts on Caprio's announcement -- and the 2014 political pool in general. "That's the thing about Rhode Island politics. You think you have an idea of where things stand, and the next day it can be completely different," he said. "You can be certain of one thing in Rhode Island, and that is nothing's ever certain."
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