One And Done: How Vulnerable Is David Cicilline In 2012?
Saturday, March 26, 2011
With his approval rating plummeting, critics are saying freshman Congressman David Cicilline is at risk of becoming Rhode Island’s first one-term U.S. Representative since the beginning of World War II.
A poll released by Brown University Thursday showed that only 17 percent of Rhode Islanders approve of the job he is doing in Washington and a whopping 77 percent believe the former Providence Mayor is to blame for the capital city’s current budget crisis.
Pollster: Credibility Is Key
While Cicilline has strongly defended the decisions he made during his eight years as Mayor, Quest Research pollster Victor Profughi says the low approval rating shows voters aren’t buying the Congressman’s answers.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST“There is the simple fact that Cicilline's explanations thus far to do not seem to have been seen as credible by the media,” Profughi said. “Two polls now have shown the congressman's low ratings with the statewide electorate. Credibility becomes the key variable here.”
Profughi said another factor is President Obama’s popularity among Rhode Islanders, which he believes is slipping. 2012 is a Presidential election year, which normally means higher turnouts at the polls. While Cicilline would normally benefit from more voters, Proguhi said next year could be different.
“2012 may not be a normal election year,” he said. “With President Obama, while still doing reasonably well among Rhode Islanders at this point, seems to be stumbling, and this could ultimately impact the entire political equation.”
Loughlin: People Don’t Like Being Lied To
Cicilline won a close race for Congress last November and now his Republican opponent John Loughlin says he believes voters were misled about the true fiscal mess the city of Providence is in.
Loughlin, who has yet to make a decision about another run for Congress in 2012, said voters will forgive a lot of things, but they want to hear the truth. He compared Cicilline to George H. W. Bush, who infamously promised not to raise taxes during his 1988 Presidential campaign and then proceeded to raise taxes once elected. Bush lost his reelection bid four years later.
“People in the 1st District don’t like to be lied to,” Loughlin said. “And they don’t like to be sold a bill of goods.
Depends On The Opponent
But Darrell West, Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, says House incumbents rarely lose when seeking reelection. He said it will still be a challenge for the GOP in Rhode Island to find a candidate that could defeat Cicilline.
“A member’s first run typically is his hardest. For House incumbents seeking re-election, about 95 percent of them typically win,” West Said. “Cicilline’s vulnerability depends entirely on who the opponent is. The GOP problem in Rhode Island is a weak bench. Party candidates have not done well in recent elections so there aren’t that many who could make a credible run in 2012.”
West dismissed Loughlin as a viable option in 2012 and said another rumored candidate, former head of the Rhode Island State Police Brendan Doherty, is an “unknown quantity.”
“[John] Loughlin was not able to beat Cicilline during a Republican tidal wave election,” West said. “[Brendan] Doherty is an unknown quantity due to never having run for public office before.”
Cicilline Campaign Worker: I’m Disappointed
Cicilline and fellow Congressman Jim Langevin spoke to a friendly crowd at a Rhode Island Young Democrats meeting held in Providence Thursday night. Cicilline did not face questions about the city’s finances and spent much of his speaking time promoting his “Make it in America Grant."
But a former volunteer for the Cicilline campaign said they were upset with the former Mayor’s unwillingness to admit that he is partially to blame for the difficult decisions current Mayor Angel Taveras has had to make.
“The city is closing schools and firing teachers because of Congressman Cicilline,” the source said. “It’s not right. I’m disappointed that I trusted this man and worked hard on his campaign because I believed in him. It’s a let down.”
Cicilline Worried About Issues Foremost
In a statement to GoLocalProv, Cicilline said he isn’t thinking about low approval numbers because he is concentrating on getting Rhode Islanders back to work.
“I was sworn into Congress only 12 weeks ago, and I firmly believe that in these difficult economic times, my job is not to worry about politics, but how to get Rhode Islanders back to work and that’s why I’m doing everything I can to get our economy back on track, including focusing on my 'Make it in America Block Grant' legislation to retool our manufacturers and retrain our workers to get our economy moving again," Cicilline said. "These are incredibly hard times for Rhode Islanders and I intend to continue to focus on fighting for them."
Still, Profughi said the low ratings and the city’s fiscal situation could pose problems for the incumbent next year.
“All of this suggests that a respectable Republican, with an early start, and if well funded, could produce a dynamite combination, especially if he/she can capitalize on a perceived lack of credibility on Cicilline's part,” Profughi said.
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