John Ghiorse’s Latest Update On Hurricane Earl: THURSDAY AM
Thursday, September 02, 2010
What’s Happening Now:
This morning it is stronger than it has ever been, a Category 4 with peak sustained winds of 145 mph. It continues to move toward the North Carolina coast on a north northwesterly course at 15 - 20 mph. It is located about 400 miles south of Cape Hatteras and still over 800 miles south southwest of Providence. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Westport, MA out over the Cape and Islands with a Tropical Storm Watch still in effect for Rhode Island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Long Island and the Connecticut shore.
What Is The Forecast?:
The center of Earl is still expected to pass within 50 miles of the Outer Banks of North Carolina sometime late tonight and to within 25-50 miles of Cape Cod tomorrow night. I continue to think that a key for us will be how close the storm comes to the Outer Banks late tonight (see earlier updates). That will be the first milestone. Another problem continues to be that as it approaches New England a wobble of a few miles one way or the other can make a huge difference what happens to us here in Rhode Island. We probably won’t be able to detect those subtle deviations until Earl gets very close later tomorrow. So keeping that in mind, and given the fact that Earl is a massively large hurricane (unlike Bob in 1991 which was much smaller in size) we should prepare for at least tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) in Rhode Island and perhaps hurricane conditions over Southeastern Massachusetts, the Cape and Islands late tomorrow and tomorrow night. One positive aspect of the forecast track is that the strongest winds will come in from the north and northeast rather than from the south and southeast. If that happens we should not experience the catastrophic storm surge and coastal flooding that has occurred in our most devastating storms of the past. Earl should move by quickly so weather conditions will improve rapidly early Saturday. The weather for the rest of the holiday weekend should be sunny, dry and pleasant.
What Should You Be Doing Now:
Complete the early part of your planned preparations. Please don’t leave plans for your boat or yard cleanup or supplies to the last minute. The key to preparation is always to have things in order and done early. If the storm takes a welcomed but drastic turn away from us, you have really not lost a thing but the opposite could be true if the storm hits us and you’ve waited to the last minute to get things done.
Future Updates:
I have a scheduled update for this evening and, of course, will update before then if there is any major change in the situation. For more visuals and details, check GoLocalProv's Real Time Hurricane Tracker.
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