Is the Oil Spill Headed for Rhode Island?
Friday, June 04, 2010
The Gulf Coast oil spill might seem like a distant problem, but the oil slick could make its way to Rhode Island shores, according to the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
As the Gulf Coast oil spill continues to spread, a NCAR computer simulation shows that it might soon extend thousands of miles up the Atlantic Coast, coming uncomfortably close to Rhode Island.
“I’ve had a lot of people ask me, ‘Will the oil reach Florida?’” says NCAR scientist Synte Peacock. “Actually, our best knowledge says the scope of this environmental disaster is likely to reach far beyond Florida, with impacts that have yet to be understood.”
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTOil has been spewing out of a undersea oil well since April 20. But because it is sitting in a stagnant area, its effects have largely been confined to the coasts of Louisiana and Alabama. But once it gets caught up in the fast-moving Loop Current, it will swing around Florida and shoot thousands of miles up the Atlantic Coast, according to NCAR.
“The computer model shows the oil can move as far north as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, before turning east—it’s not known where it will go at that point,” said Rachael Drummond, a spokeswoman for NCAR.
The slick could show up on the Atlantic side of Florida in a matter of weeks, according to NCAR. Once it has entered the faster currents of the Gulf Stream, the slick will move at speeds of up to 100 miles a day, crossing 3,000 miles a month.
NCAR said the simulations are not a firm forecast, but a description of possible scenarios. Exactly where the oil ends up—and how fast it gets there—depends on weather conditions and the state of ocean currents, which are hard to know more than a few days ahead of time, according to NCAR
Just how much oil will make it out into the Atlantic Ocean is also unclear. NCAR said it did not know whether the oil would be a thin film on the surface or mix with waters underneath.
At this point, some people are even wondering if the spill will make it all the way to Europe.
“We have been asked if and when remnants of the spill could reach the European coastlines,” says Martin Visbeck, University of Kiel, Germany researcher who was involved in the NCAR study. “Our assumption is that the enormous lateral mixing in the ocean together with the biological disintegration of the oil should reduce the pollution to levels below harmful concentrations. But we would like to have this backed up by numbers from some of the best ocean models.”
