Is Obama Heading Towards Nixon? Experts Weigh In
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Is President Obama headed towards the same fate as President Nixon in light of current controversy? Rhode Island political experts weigh in.
Darrell West, Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at The Brookings Institute
"The best thing the Administration can do at this point is be open and honest. The worst approach is covering up -- and confiscating evidence, which is what Nixon did. The President has to be cognizant of the similarities here.
Right now, we're in fact finding mode. People need to get to the bottom of each situation. The Administration's had the strongest defense on Benghazi so far, saying the criticism on how it was handled is largely politically motivated, and very damaging in general.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTUltimately, I think Obama's approach will avoid Nixon's fate. Already, Republicans are calling for impeachment. They could be overplaying their hand, and ultimately undermining their credibility."
Brian Krueger, Professor and Department of Political Science Chair, University of Rhode Island
"Collectively, or any one of these scandals alone, could be as a big as Watergate, but we are a very long way from that conclusion. Firstly, there is no President Obama smoking gun from the Benghazi investigations. This has been mined and re-mined for political gain. The strategy is an old one: keep the President on the defensive so as to weaken his popularity and hence congressional persuasiveness and divert his focus away from his agenda.
The IRS and AP scandals are real and serious. Certainly Obama has not been a friend of civil liberties as president, which makes claims of his involvement ring true. The big question is whether these scandals go to the top and/or whether Obama participated in any cover up. At this point we do not know and have little concrete reason to think he was directly involved."
Dr. Matt Guardino, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Providence College
"I think we need to try to consider this in two different ways: one has to do with the actual wrongdoing or mistakes (scandals) that may be occurring within the Obama administration, and the other has to do with the administration's PR problems, issues with public communications and relations with the media.
On the former, it's hard to know what really goes on inside the government (and, as a side note, the alleged lack of transparency on Obama's part --- as well as former President Bush's --- has generated its own criticism). These are complicated issues, and in some ways each of the three needs to be treated separately.
Because of the momentum from the president's conservative political opponents, I think Benghazi and the IRS issues will probably be more damaging, although, personally, I think the AP situation is at least as troubling to democracy from a broader standpoint.
That said, I think Obama is far from "Nixon territory" (or even "Bill Clinton territory") on the scandal front, at least at this point. From a historical perspective, second-term presidents (even, or perhaps especially, those who were re-elected with lots of popular support) often face major political difficulties, partly of their own doing, partly not. This is almost to be expected --- remember LBJ and Vietnam, of course Nixon, Reagan and Iran-Contra, Clinton and Lewinsky, Bush and Katrina (as well as Iraq).
Policy success is often a pretty good antidote for presidential scandal --- particularly if the policies seem to hold fairly broad popular appeal (e.g. aspects of gun control, immigration reform, the minimum wage) --- but the polarization in Congress will likely continue to get in the way.
The ironic thing is that because Obama needs to use the "bully pulpit" aggressively to have any chance of getting policies like these passed, his flaws and difficulties are exacerbated: he doesn't communicate well in a governing context, and unless and until these various "scandals" die down, the news will probably continue to play down policy matters (foreign or domestic) in favor of the scandals.
From a broader perspective, I think Obama's election (and, perhaps as importantly, his re-election) as the first African-American president is an achievement whose effect cannot be understated, and one that will probably, in the end, define his presidency. From a policy standpoint, the longer term political, social and economic effects of health care reform will make a big difference, for better or worse, in how he his viewed decades from now. Major, major damaging revelations would have to come out from one or more of the current three issues to overshadow these aspects from a historical perspective."
Victor Profughi, Adjunct Professor and Former Director of the Bureau of Government Research and Services at Rhode Island College
"There are some pretty serious concerns right now for Democrats and the President. Obama's overall ratings in the polls have been slipping for some time, and now in light of everything going on, are tenuous at best. His popularity -- and influence -- is going to have to decline here.
With 2014 elections around the corner, Democrats in states where Obama wasn't popular to begin with are going to face some serious dilemmas. They're going to be trying to figure out how to run away from the President, while still being "good Democrats."
While some Republicans are starting to call for impeachment currently, there doesn't seem to be any plausibility for proof of illegal activity by the President. However, in the court of public opinion, the public doesn't always make that differentiation.
The President's recent perceived success with healthcare reform could be in jeopardy, as his credibility is currently on the line. There's no easy way out for him here. He's scaring the living daylights out of his own party, he's ticking off the press, and he's coming out on the wrong side of the IRS. That's a pretty dangerous combination.
The timing of this all could possibly blow over some before the next election cycle begins in earnest next year, if things quiet down some. The public might not have a long-term attention span once things pass, but the media certainly does, so watch out for that."
