Organized efforts are underway in Providence to stop former Mayor Vincent "Buddy" Cianci's from realizing a third term -- and they aren't just coming from his opponents in the race.
Former Democratic-turned-independent candidate Lorne Adrain, who bowed out of the race on Monday, told GoLocal that an "outside" movement is being organized to take out Cianci.
Cianci, who is running as an independent, will face the winner of the Democratic primary that includes contenders Jorge Elorza, Brett Smiley, and Michael Solomon, as well as current GOP candidate Dr. Daniel Harrop.
"I haven't seen any organized effort on the part of the candidates, as each of the candidates thinks they're the best person to move forward," said Adrain. "I'm definitely seeing stuff outside. Sally Strachan, she's involved with doing something. I've spoken with Michael Corrente, he's interested in advancing the cause."
Adrain, whose exit turned an essentially four-way race into a three-way one, said he believed his departure took some of the "unacceptable risk" out of a Cianci victory with the new dynamic.
"My hope is that people can accept that much of the risk is gone, and we shouldn't all focus on who can beat Buddy, but who can lead the city -- who has the character, and characteristics -- to lead the city forward," said Adrain. "However, any independent effort to add to being able to quash Buddy is a good thing."
Now, a Tumblr page has sprung up, NoBuddyPVD.com, hinting at the potential for more come in an emerging "Anybody But Cianci" movement.
Corrente confirmed his involvement, but told GoLocalProv, "I have no comment at this time." The prolific Rhode Island film director held an option to produce Mike Stanton's Cianci tome, The Prince of Providence, into a movie -- but the project never materialized. Corrente is best known for his movie, "Federal Hill."
"The question about an Anybody But Cianci movement is how much money is behind it and what is the political stature of its supporters. If well-funded, an organization like this can drive the debate and remind people about Cianci’s past problems," said Darrell West, Vice President of Government Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
"PACs allow people to contribute large amounts of money toward particular advocacy efforts. There have been many examples of where this type of action was effective. In Rhode Island, for example, the pension reform movement was aided by outside donors who put this issue on the agenda. The same thing can happen to Cianci," noted West.
Jennifer Duffy with the Cook Political Report noted that outside money -- and organizations -- could have an influence on a Mayoral race, but that it could cut both ways.
"Given the state of campaign finance laws, all it would take to form an Anybody But Buddy super PAC is one deep pocket. Thus, the odds of one popping up are better than not," said Duffy. "It is rare to see these kinds of campaigns outside of states without general election run-offs or jungle primaries. There are some pretty famous ABC stories in Louisiana. One included a bumper sticker that read, 'Vote for the crook. It's important.' The crook won."
Duffy warned to the backlash potential in Rhode Island. "It can backfire because it could be a rallying point for Cianci supporters and increase intensity. It could also end up looking very elitist: the East Side versus the rest of the city. The East Side doesn't always fare well in those battles."
Local political science experts in national politics offered other examples of outside groups mobilized to take on one particular candidate.
"In local politics, I can find two efforts underway to try to prevent the election of a controversial candidate. In Nye County, Nevada, there is a vibrant Anybody but Rick Marshall for Sheriff movement, with a Facebook page and several Youtube videos. It’s difficult to locate the source of these postings, but it does show the power of social media as a tool for campaigns on all sorts," said Professor of Political Science June Speakman at Roger Williams University.
"Another, more relevant example is that of Rob Ford, the infamous mayor of Toronto. The organization NoFordNation, founded by a Toronto resident in 2011, uses social media to disseminate information about Ford and encourage voters to elect new leadership for Toronto. Alongside satirical treatments of Ford’s behavior and factsheets about his policies and scandals, visitors can find bios, statements and pictures of Ford’s opponents."
Rhode Island College Professor of Communications Valerie Endress spoke to the different dynamic facing Cianci in Providence in his bid to be elected a third time.
"We haven't seen this kind notoriety attached to a candidacy since Boston's James Michael Curley won his bid for re-election while serving a prison term. Curley had the Irish machine behind him and a host of loyal supporters. For Cianci, the traditional Italian-American demographic is changing in Providence, and certainly not to his advantage. He can no longer count on the same numbers he relied upon in previous elections," said Endress.
"So, Adrain's exit from the race is problematic for Cianci and could cut into what could have been a razor-thin margin of victory. Even a few percentage points could make all the difference," continued Endress. "Instead of 33-35%, Buddy may be looking at a margin that's closer to 40%. If Harrop drops out of the race, there could be no reasonable path to victory for the former mayor, particularly if the ABC movement crosses party lines and is well funded for a media campaign and a get-out-the-vote ground game."
And what does the former Mayor think of the developments?
"It doesn't surprise me that this is going on by the operatives who don't want me to be Mayor. It's America -- they can do what they want," said Cianci. "It's amazing they do all this back room promising, who's going to be this, who's going to be that."
"I'm busy doing my research, getting my policy people, getting headquarters organized," said Cianci, who noted that he will be launching a social media campaign shortly, and a "virtual headquarters second to none."
"I'm perhaps most surprised that raising the money hasn't been that hard," said Cianci, who said his campaign took in close to $200,000 in one week. "We've got a goal of $1 million. We should have all that money by September 9," noting the date of the gubernatorial primaries -- when his race for a threepeat will start in earnest.
Veteran political pollster Vic Profughi said he thought that an organized movement against Cianci could ultimately work in his favor.
"It might have just the opposite affect. People tend to like underdogs, and I think such an obvious "Anti-Cianci" endeavor with all of its trappings would play nicely into his campaign's hands," said Profughi. "He'd have a field day with it, even if he ultimately lost the election (and I'm not saying he would). But should he, I certainly predict that his radio show ratings would then go through the roof."
However, Profughi added that there are far from any forgone conclusions this election.
"Absolutely nothing would surprise me in this year's race for Mayor of Providence," said Profughi.
Related Slideshow: Leaders React to Buddy Cianci Running Again
Forced twice to resign as Mayor of Providence - Buddy Cianci is back to try again for the office of Mayor. The reaction from political, reform and business leaders strong -- for and against the return of Cianci.
Darrell West - Vice President and Director of Governance Studies at Brookings and former Head of the Taubman Center at Brown University
West says:
The race is wide open with Cianci's entry. He has a four-way race which lowers the threshold for winning. It is conceivable someone could win with 30 percent of the vote and that person could be any of the four.
Cianci has to explain why he deserves another shot after having gone to jail. Many will be skeptical but he doesn't need a majority to win.
Ron St. Pierre - Host of News Radio 920 and served as Buddy Cianci's producer on Cianci's radio show. St. Pierre is a member of the Rhode Island Radio Hall of Fame
St. Pierre says:
Buddy enters a crowded field which is exactly the kind of race he thrives on. He hits the ground running thanks to the constant exposure from his radio and TV jobs while others in the race are just launching their attempts to define themselves to potential voters. He brings a bigger than life character to the race that will certainly grab the national spotlight but the big question is how Providence and Rhode Island will be perceived under that microscope. Do we really want the Wall Street Journal and other media outlets rehashing tales of corruption as we try to reshape our image and get out of the fiscal doldrums?
EDITOR'S NOTE: An earlier version gave the in correct attribution to this statement. It was previously attributed to Bill George.
Victor Profughi - Adjunct Professor at the University of Rhode Island and the founder of Quest Research, a political polling agency. He is one of the most well-respected pollsters in the market.
Profughi says:
A multi-party (candidate) race is exactly what Buddy needs to have his best shot.
Buddy's decision to run as an Independent it seems to me gives him more time to put his campaign together. Also, I'm confident that he polled his options and the data showed him that his best shot was an Independent in what appears to be a four person race in November. Harrop and Adrian will probably pull a relatively small number of votes that Buddy wouldn't have gotten anyway. Very likely somewhere between 38 and 40% of the vote will produce a winner. Buddy almost certainly can count on at least 35% or so before he does anything....so the main unknown is just how many votes can Adrian and Harrop get.
And the other very significant variable will be what will the Latino voters do, but in the primary--where in theory they could pick a winner who they might then well stay with come November.
As for parties, the Republican party in Providence is virtually non-existent....as for the Democrats, as a party organization they haven't been much of a factor in at least 35 years or so.
It will be interesting to see how effectively Buddy is able to mobilize an organization, with boots on the ground. I would never count him out.
As far as the Democrats are concerned for their free for all primary, Solomon probably gets an additional boost absent Cianci.
Tom Finneran - Former Massachusetts Speaker of the House and GoLocalWorcester MINDSETTER™
Finneran says:
I never met him but I'm aware of his legend. By all accounts, he put Providence on the map as an against-all-odds very successful city. As politics becomes ever more bland, ever more vanilla, and ever more pedestrian, Buddy would bring energy and life to the campaign in vivid color.
Valerie Endress, Professor of Communications at Rhode Island College
Endress says:
The dynamic of the race certainly changes with Buddy Cianci’s announcement. For good or ill, Buddy doesn’t need to introduce himself to those who are most likely to vote in a primary election. So, unlike other candidates, he won’t have the same challenges. He’ll receive national attention, and a disproportionate amount of the coverage in Rhode Island. His celebrity will inhibit the process, in so much that the other candidates will struggle to be heard.
We’ve seen demonstrable evidence that party influence is weakening. I’m not sure, however, that Cianci’s move will prompt further erosion in Rhode Island. If either of the parties take the lead in negative advertising aimed at Cianci, it might actually strengthen party unity. The Democrat Party, especially, can ill afford to sit idly by and watch the former mayor gain momentum. If either of the parties move aggressively, Buddy’s candidacy could actually have a galvanizing effect.
Brett Smiley - Democratic Candidate for Mayor and former Political Columnist
Smiley says:
Buddy Cianci, the twice-convicted felon who remains the poster boy for the corruption and pay-to-play politics of the past, announced his candidacy for Mayor of Providence. And I've been the only candidate to stand up to him — to fight against the "know a guy" culture in Providence and articulate my vision for growing our economy, keeping our streets safe and improving our schools with integrity. Cianci's been the mayor before, and he had to step down on felony charges. Shockingly, he was elected mayor a second time ... and he again had to step down on felony charges. Now he wants a third shot, and many pundits think he actually has a chance. We cannot let that happen.
M. Charles Bakst - Longtime Political Reporter and Columnist for the Providence Journal
Bakst says:
I cannot believe Cianci will run. If he does, it will be a dramatic setback and utter embarrassment for Providence and Rhode Island. And heaven forbid that he should win. Fortunately, I don't think he would.
Joseph Paolino, former Mayor of Providence and Real Estate and Casino Developer
Paolino says:
I don't think anyone else cares about other offices or races right now.
People view Buddy as an iconic figure. If he runs, I think he wins. I think people like they way he ran this city -- it was safe, streets were taken care of, he expanded the tax base. He's not a foreign policy type of mayor.
He cares about the basics of city government, so people get their money's worth. People felt like when he was there, he was a cheerleader and he made people feel good about the city that they lived in. People know he cares about Providence and get things done.
I want Superman filled, 195 developed properly, my streets to be safe -- my car's been broken into twice, a car stolen -- I want to see someone who's going to get something done, and fight for this city up at the state house. They won't do that with anyone else running. Their lives haven't been defined by the city of Providence for 40 years.
John Marion - Executive Director of Common Cause Rhode Island
Marion says:
It would be a tragedy for the City of Providence and the state of Rhode Island if Buddy Cianci were to run again. He has twice had his opportunity to lead the capital city and he led it as a criminal enterprise. It's time for Rhode Island to move past our reputation for corruption; a Buddy Cianci mayoralty would only reinforce the national narrative about our state. Public office is held as a public trust, and this will not help restore faith in our government.
As we continue to dig ourselves out of our fiscal woes, and try to lure investment and create jobs, this cannot help us in our competition with other states. As we try to encourage national foundations to further invest in our schools, as we try to develop the I-195 land, as we try to send the signal that we are a 21st Century city, a return to the politics of our past would only hurt those efforts.
Phil West - Author and Government Reform Expert, former Executive Director of Common Cause Rhode Island
West says:
I assume Buddy Cianci will try to repeat his 1990 run as an independent. He won by 317 votes. During his second act as mayor I watched him in action. He was a consummate performer who charmed and entertained the crowds while he nursed his grudges and bullied anyone who dared to disagree. He terrified people.
I don't believe his character has changed. Providence would again get lots of razzle-dazzle on the surface, but underneath the same cynical bullying. If he won again, he would use the powers of his office and the force of his personality to beat down anyone who resisted. As in his earlier administrations, Providence would get a third act of All About Buddy.
After two Cianci administrations rife with corruption, he wants a third bite of the apple. Sensible people need to refuse.
Don Roach - GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™ and former Republican Candidate for City Council in Cranston
Roach says:
Buddy back in the mayor's office might be the best thing to hit Providence since...well, since the Providence Place Mall. Buddy is an old time politician but his heart is laser focused on the city. The city needs someone with that mindset who isn't thinking about Providence as a stepping stone to something else.
Dan Harrop - GOP Candidate for Mayor of the City of Providence
Harrop says:
"I look forward to Mr. Cianci entering the race for Mayor. While his time to run the city is clearly in the past, and with all its other problems Providence does not need its leader to be a convicted felon as it moves into the future, nevertheless I look forward to his entry. This will give us the opportunity to further look at his mis-management of the city, such as the 6% cost-of-living increases he allowed in pensions, which has led our pension system to the brink of bankruptcy."
Jorge Elorza - Democratic Candidate for Mayor of Providence and Professor at Roger Williams University
Elorza says:
"We're not focusing on elements that are beyond our control, such as who decides to enter the race and when. We're much more focused on the things we can control, like what we're doing about the issues that are important to Providence's citizens: economic development, rebuilding the middle class, improving our schools and our neighborhoods. Our message is about bringing the city together as One Providence, and those fundamentals remain the same regardless of who is in the race."
Carol Costa - GoLocalProv MINDSETTER™ and Executive Director of the Warren Housing Authority
Costa says:
The chances that Vincent Cianci again enters the ring to shepherd the city he truly loves remain very good. In Buddy terms, if I had an extra "C note" I would bet he runs. It was nearly a year ago I weighed in on political redemption as I opined about the Mayor in part:, "It is his knack for returning to limelight, prominence and politics that is nothing short of Poli Sci textbook material; the professor of the comeback by Vincent “Buddy” Cianci. Do the crime, do the time, spin it like a champ, write a book and move forward." But this time I see the return less about him and more about the city he genuinely loves. Providence for Buddy is life blood. Politics for Buddy is sport. Sharing his experiences on the radio is irresistible. Put them together and his candidacy will be formidable.
His constant advice via the radio waves always begins and ends with the promise that Providence will be divine yet again. When and if he returns to city hall in my view, he will be working for the redemption and reinvigoration of Providence first and the accolades that will follow secondary. If he succeeds in restoring economic development and imparting his traditionally huge visions are what seem to be the most motivating factors. I feel he posses a mission and a fire in his belly to re-energize the capital city. He appears primed to lead a new renaissance.
Brett Smiley - Democratic Candidate for Mayor of Providence and former Political Fundraiser (statement below was said before the announcement)
Smiley says:
"We have a unique opportunity to bring about a true economic renaissance in Providence that benefits all our residents, and we need to capitalize on this moment with forward-thinking leadership. Since Day One of my campaign, I've clearly articulated my vision for a City Hall that's run with transparency and integrity. We cannot afford to return to the problems of the past by electing a man who served time in federal prison for political corruption."
Lorne Adrain - Independent Candidate for Mayor of Providence and Financial Advisor
Adrain says:
“As I wrote in my “City must move on from its Buddy fixation” op-ed from last Friday, this is a distraction from the real issues facing our city. Elections are about the future. They are an opportunity for us to discuss how we are going to take Providence from where we have been, to where we should be. Providence deserves a serious debate about the future of our city in the coming election.”
