HURRICANE UPDATE: Sandy will be an Enormous Storm
Friday, October 26, 2012
While there are still many questions to be answered about the details of the future track and intensity of Sandy, the broader picture is becoming quite clear.
Sandy will be an enormous storm in the area it covers and it will be very intense with winds over hurricane force over a large area perhaps even hundreds of miles from the storm center.
But, as they say, the devil is in the details. Sandy is currently a Category 1 Hurricane located close to the Bahamas over 1100 miles south of New England, certainly a long way away. The track projections from several computer mathematical models continue to call for a track that will bring Sandy northward well offshore east of the Carolinas. At that point the center is expected to begin a left turn toward the East Coast eventually crossing the coast somewhere between the Delmarva Peninsula and Eastern Long Island on Monday or Tuesday of next week. It is becoming very apparent that Sandy will not head out to sea. But the details of just where the center of the storm is headed are not very certain at this point. For what it’s worth, the mid-point of all the projected tracks is somewhere along the New Jersey coastline.
Sandy should intensify some as it interacts with energy in the more northern latitudes and begins to morph into a non-tropical system. While it is far too early to put specific numbers on the wind, rain and flooding affects expected here in Southern New England, we should prepare for strong winds that may cause enough damage to produce widespread power outages. Heavy tropical rains are also possible and severe coastal flooding and beach battering and erosion could well be a major problem. It stands to reason that the farther away the storm center is from New England, the less severe these affects will be. That’s why the center of the storm track is all important.
I will continue to have updates through the weekend as more solid data comes in and as Sandy moves closer.
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Comments:
Ed Jucation
2:56pm on Friday, October 26, 2012
Should be interesting as we have a Moon high tide early next week. I'm just wondering which model John agrees with, the European model or the GFS mode. Worst case scenerio for us is GFS model with right front quadrant forcing water up Narragansett Bay, similar to the Hurricane of 1938. Hope the Hurrican Barrier functions.