Governor

Gina Raimondo (D) v. Allan Fung (R)

The most recent public poll by Rassmussen Report has Raimondo with a 42% to 37% lead (+/- 4%). Thus, as of the last week in September, the Governor's race is a toss up.

There are three factors that may influence this race:

1) If the Republican Governor's Association were to pour significant resources into the race it might offset Raimondo's out-of-state fundraising capacity. Fung is not out of it regarding money -- at the 28 day-before-election mark, Fung had $910,763 cash on hand and Raimondo had $333,645.

2) Bob Healey cannot win, but he can win 6% to 8% of the vote with most of it coming out of Fung's column.

3) Labor - when the NEA (who had heavily supported Chafee in 2010 and may have been the difference in his win) went all in for Clay Pell in the Democratic primary, they are now a little bit of a boat without a harbor. If the NEA decided to go for Fung late, this race could be wildly interesting.

Lt. Governor

Catherine Taylor (R) v. Dan McKee (D)

Left is right and right is left. GOP candidate gets all the union support, but the Democratic one gets support from ed reform billionaires? Call this race Bizzaro World.

Here are three factors that will decide this race:

1) McKee has a strong base in the Blackstone Valley (Lincoln and Cumberland) and has strong support in the Johnston and North Providence areas. This is a significant block of voters that will be difficult for Taylor to overcome. In contrast, Taylor has received numerous public union endorsements.

2) Chafee-factor: Taylor, who came within a couple of points of beating Ralph Mollis for the Secretary of State's office in 2010, was able to run on her experience of working in Washington for John and Lincoln Chafee. Four years later, Taylor now has to distance herself from her four years with Lincoln Chafee. According to private polls, Chafee has an approval rating in the low 20's.

3) Year of the Woman: With Raimondo running strong for Governor and Gorbea nearly a shoe-in for Secretary of State, are Rhode Islanders going to elect three women?

Attorney General

Peter Kilmartin (D) v. Dawson Hodgson (R)

Republicans have historically had the edge in running for Attorney General - Herb Desimone, Richard Isreal, Arlene Violet and Jeff Pine were all GOP underdogs that won the AG's office.

Kilmartin, a former legislative leader in the Gordon Fox leadership group, has had no big wins in his four years and has a lot of big issues with few successes. 38 Studios, Dan Doyle, and public corruption (Gordon Fox) are all unanswered questions after four-years.

Hodgson can make this a very competitive race.

General Treasurer

Seth Magaziner (D) v. Ernie Almonte (I)

Magaziner is the son of former Clinton healthcare guru Ira Magaziner. In contrast, Almonte is the former Auditor General from 1994 to 2010 - a position appointed by the Speaker of the House. Almonte served under Speakers Joe DeAngelis, John Harwood, and Bill Murphy.

Magaziner's experience may be perceived as thin - the big question is his experience too thin for voters. 

Will Rhode Islanders trust a 31-year-old managing $8 billion?  

Mayor of Providence

Buddy Cianci (I) v. Jorge Elorza (D) v. Dan Harrop (R)

The race for Mayor of Providence has been a boon to tourism. So far the New Yorker, American Spectator, Economist, New York Times, and Washington Post have come to Providence to write about the return of Buddy Cianci.

The race between Elroza and Cianci may be the greatest political juxtaposition in Rhode Island political history. Cianci is 73, a political master, a two-time felon with a list of accomplishments a mile long. 

Elorza is inexperienced, never been elected (never been a candidate), but has become the political darling of the East Side of Providence.

Never before have voters had a clearer decision.