Can Brendan Doherty Unseat David Cicilline?
Thursday, September 13, 2012
A day after incumbent Congressman David Cicilline cruised to victory over challenger Anthony Gemma in the Democratic primary, political observers agreed that Republican Brendan Doherty is likely to be a more formidable opponent for the first-term Representative.
But that doesn’t make Doherty a lock to become the first member of the GOP to win the 1st Congressional District since 1992 either, several analysts said.
“At first glance it might appear that Doherty is in a candidate's dream position -- squeaky clean, fresh political face, no baggage running against a tainted old school politico with a load of baggage,” said Quest Research pollster Victor Profughi. “Into the mix comes the Romney-Ryan party nationally aided and abetted locally by party leadership that's convinced the national party direction should sell in Rhode Island.”GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST
Cicilline Can Win on National Issues
Profughi contends that Doherty cannot simply focus on Cicilline’s highly scrutinized eight-year tenure as Mayor of Providence. He said the Republican will need to look beyond Cicilline's past and position himself as a candidate with his own ideas that are not in lockstep with his party’s national agenda.
“Linking with the national party would play nicely into Cicilline's hands,” Profughi said. “And, absolutely Cicilline can win talking only about national issues — with Doherty's help.”
Even during his primary race with Gemma, Cicilline spent a significant portion of his time focusing his attacks on Republicans in Washington. While Gemma ran an unconventional campaign that attempted to link Cicilline to a voter fraud conspiracy, Cicilline spent his time arguing that Doherty will be another vote for a plan to alter Social Security and Medicare and repeal Obamacare.
But Doherty has spent several weeks attempting to convince voters that he’ll have an independent streak in Washington. On Wednesday, hours after holding a press conference where he unveiled a “top ten list” of examples of Cicilline’s dishonesty, Doherty called for a plan he says would increase benefits for the poor and keep Social Security solvent.
“That plan would continue the gradually increase in the retirement age for younger workers, but would essentially shift the delayed benefit to a ‘20 year bump’ payment, which would provide increased benefits to those who have been on the program for 20 years or more,” Doherty said. “The proposal will also recalculate the benefit formula so that the neediest of beneficiaries receive a greater benefit. Most importantly, this plan would ensure that the Social Security program remains intact for future generations.”
Doherty Can’t Be Beholden to House Leadership
Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report said Doherty’s path to victory will be keeping the focus on Cicilline and the issue of trust while driving home that he be beholden to House Republican leadership. Still, she said Cicilline’s strategy to run a nationalized campaign may be successful, specifically because Doherty doesn’t have a track record to stand by.
“Doherty doesn't have a voting record, which makes it more difficult to substantiate any claim that he will ‘end Medicare as we know it,’” Duffy said.
Providence College political science professor Tony Affigne also predicted Doherty may have problems convincing local voters that he will not support the national GOP agenda. He said comparisons to Massachusetts’ Republican Senator Scott Brown, who has built a reputation as independent thinker in Washington “aren’t particularly apt.”
“Every senator has innate powers that come with the seat, and are less vulnerable to leadership sanctions,” Affigne said. “House members are much more dependent on leadership rewards, and face harsher punishments when they stray. Doherty will need to convince 1st District voters, who are overwhelmingly Democrats and are not fond of Romney or the national Republican Party, that he will actually buck his own leaders in key areas where Republican policies are out of step with 1st District voters.”
Move Away from Character Attacks
In his first campaign commercial, Doherty attempts to make the case that both parties are to blame for “ wasteful government spending” and that he intends to go to Washington to “fight back.” Brown University political science professor Wendy Schiller said the Republican will need to continue to focus on national issues and develop himself as candidate.
“Doherty has to move away from the personal character attacks on Cicilline and talk more about what he would do as Congressman on key issues of importance to Rhode Island,” Schiller said. “He can stress that as a member of the majority party (GOP) he would have influence to help the district while still maintaining his independence from the more conservative policies of the national GOP. But he can't run that campaign until he lays out what his policy beliefs are in detail.”
Schiller said she believes Doherty could run into problems if he simply focuses on Cicilline’s record as Mayor of Providence.
“Cicilline cannot escape Providence entirely, but it is hardly accurate to say he destroyed the city as Doherty suggests,” Schiller said. “And [Mayor Angel] Taveras has done a very good job of starting to right the ship, although there is a long way to go.”
Dan McGowan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter: @danmcgowan.
