Cicilline Ahead in Poll: Can Brendan Doherty Make a Comeback?
Tuesday, October 02, 2012
The race to represent the 1st Congressional District has swung 21-percentage points since last February and incumbent Congressman David Cicilline now holds a 44 percent-38 percent lead over Republican challenger Brendan Doherty, according to a poll released Monday by WPRI.
The survey of 250 likely 1st District voters (the margin of error is 6.2 percent) shows Cicilline has strong leads among women, senior citizens and union households, three groups the Congressman has focused in on in recent months. Meanwhile Doherty was ahead slightly among men and holds a 12-point lead with independents. Independent candidate David Vogel has 6.4 percent support in the district.
“There is good news and bad news for Cicilline in this poll,” Duffy said. “Yes, he closed the gap and his job numbers are up. At the same time, he is at 44 percent, which is dangerous for an incumbent. Further, he's losing independents and he's only getting 65 percent of the Democratic vote. Typically, undecided voters don't break for the incumbent.”
Schiller: Surprised the Lead isn’t Bigger
Duffy, who noted that the poll’s sample size was small, said Doherty has room to grow among the 31 percent of voters who said they didn’t have an opinion of him yet, but also said the Republican needs to define himself before Cicilline does. Duffy said she still considers the race a “toss up” with five weeks to go.
Despite Cicilline pulling ahead after trailing Doherty by 15 points earlier this year, nearly half of those polled (48.7 percent) said they had a favorable view of the Republican. Like Duffy, Brown political science professor Wendy Schiller suggested the poll’s margin of error was significant, but she also said she was surprised the Congressman isn’t ahead by more.
“I am surprised it is not a bigger lead in light of how much advertising Cicilline has done over the last few months and the popularity of [President] Obama in Rhode Island combined with the Democratic leaning of the district,” Schiller said. “What this poll shows is that Doherty still has a very decent chance of winning this seat.”
Cicilline’s Strategy Working
The WPRI poll came on the same day Doherty released his first attack ad on the Congressman. The 30-second commercial features several Rhode Island voters questioning whether Cicilline is trustworthy enough to send back to Washington.
The decision to go negative followed several weeks of generally positive press for Cicilline, who has consistently focused on linking Doherty with Presidential candidate Mitt Romney and House Republicans. Even during a contentious Democratic primary where his opponent leveled vicious attacks against him, Cicilline has spent much of his time suggesting Doherty will simply be another vote for Speaker John Boehner’s leadership team.
And according to Quest Research pollster Victor Profughi, that strategy is working.
“The national Republican agenda represents the single biggest factor in the 1st District right now,” Profughi said. “Cicilline got a big push from the primary and is a seasoned campaigner. His Providence issues may well have run their course.”
The poll also showed that 53.7 percent of voters believe jobs and the economy is the most important issue of the election and Profughi said Doherty “needs to show why he would do a better job dealing with poor economic times, while Cicilline can continue to tie him to Romney, right-wing social issues, and Republican ideas on social security and health care.”
West: Hurt by National GOP
Among Republicans running for federal office in the Ocean State, the poll shows that Doherty continues to be the candidate with the best chance at winning a Congressional seat. Senate candidate Barry Hinckley, who announced his intentions to run for office around the same time Doherty did last year, trails first-term Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse by more than 25 percentage points while Congressman James Langevin holds a 23-point lead over Republican Michael Riley.
Darrell West, vice president and director of Governance Studies and founding director of the Center for Technology Innovation at the Brookings Institution, said the national GOP has likely damaged local Republicans. West said Doherty, who has attempted to cast himself as an independent thinker similar to Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, is particularly hurt by the national party.
“This survey is very good news for Congressman Cicilline,” West said. “It shows that he has turned around the race by tying Doherty to unpopular GOP leaders nationally. The poor showing of Romney in the presidential campaign has hurt Republicans in many states. Places that looked like Republican pickups now are trending towards Democrats.”
West said the 1st District race is in sync with what is happening in a number of other places around the country and Doherty has to distance himself from the national party and “provide a stronger rationale to voters.”
In the end, Cicilline’s strategy of focusing on women and seniors has been successful, West said.
“The fact that Cicilline is running well among women and senior citizens is something about which Doherty should be very concerned,” he said. “Unless he can narrow those margins, it will be difficult for him to win the race.”
Dan McGowan can be reached at dmcgowan@golocalprov.com. Follow him on Twitter: @danmcgowan.
Comments:
RI Taxpayer
7:15am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
*
When the words integrity, character and trustworthiness are mentioned, who comes to mind, Cicilline or Doherty?
When the words deceive, lie and bankruptcy are mentioned, who comes to mind, Cicilline or Doherty?
'Nuff said.
Dean Harrington
7:44am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
".....The poor showing of the Romney campaign" is hurting Doherty? Darrell West should be professionally embarrassed by this analysis. Why hasn't the atrocious Obama presidency or the historic democrat defeats in the 2010 elections been larger lift to Doherty than what West tells us is a poor Romney campaign?
The RI electorate is corrupt and/or stupid. That's why Cicilline leads. It has nothing to do with anything more than that.
@DeansDesk
robert benson
7:52am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Women voters should not fear that Doherty will reverse Roe vs. Wade. Seniors should not fear that Doherty will abolish Social Security or Medicare. If Union workers support Cicilline, then they obviously have not read the ProJo Politifact assessments of Cicilline. One Politifact analysis concluded "False" and another concluded Mostly False. How can anyone vote for a guy who will say anything to get elected. RI needs honest, hard working members of Congress, not a political hack who drove Providence into bankruptcy and won't apologize for it.
Art West
8:21am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Cicilline preys on the gullible and folks who don't look very deeply into things. There's not much Doherty can do about that group.
However, there is more disgust with the current establishment and yearning for honest reform than many political pundits realize. They may end up being surprised by the outcome of this race.
Jonathan Flynn
8:51am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Darrell West is one of the most qualified and professional observers in the political world. Mr. Harrington is a fool.
Christopher Lee
8:51am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
We have grown dependent upon government for so much with exploding deficits to show for it. To hell with tomorrow, let’s borrow, tax, and spend for today and cripple future generations with debt. Democrats and Republicans have put us here in response to ever increasing demand for more government. This is the society we’ve become.
Along come politicians to pander and push government addiction – much like a drug pusher selling narcotics. Our entitlement society and yearly trillion-plus dollars deficits are just a momentary high. We are destined to come down from this high and experience new lows in the process. Truth-tellers don’t get elected. So I ask: Who will save us from ourselves?
Certainly not the Democrats – the party of government. As a party, Republicans jettisoned fiscal responsibility long ago.
Colonel Bowie
8:53am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Recently there was a House of Representatives vote to hold USAG Eric Holder in contempt of Congress for not respondng to the House's legal subpoenas in the 'Fast and Furious' congressional probe. Holder IS
and continues to be in contempt of Congress for not providing the required documents to the House committee. What does your congressman do (Mr. Cicilline)??? He gets up and walks out on the vote. WHAT is this man doing representing the people of Rhode Island in the 1st Congressional District????? He represents his PARTY not the people of the 1st District. While US Border Patrol Agent, Brian Terry's family seeks answers in their love ones MURDER, your Congressman walks out on a crucial vote....There is your 'profile in courage'....despicable...outrageous...unworthy!!!!!
And put Obama in the same category evoking 'executive privilege' over documents demanded by Congress in 'Fast and Furious' when he previously said he had no knowledge of the project...We are all being lied to by our government, yet we continue to re-elect 'career' politicians to represent us...When will we wake up?
Dean Harrington
9:10am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Ah, Mr. Flynn, name-calling does not dismiss my point that Mr. West's analysis here, no matter how professional or qualified, is misdirected and not the least bit objective. Now, if being entitled to that estimation renders me a fool in your eyes then I wear it as a badge of honor. Enjoy the day.
Art West
9:40am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Well said, Christopher Lee. We are rushing toward a Greece-like condition. The irony for the "tax the rich" crowd is that if we do become another Greece, the rich can flee; while we middle class are stuck.
I beg people to vote for fiscally responsible leaders who will return the country to living within its means.
jon paycheck
9:44am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
ahh mr jonathan flynn...we have a liberal here who disagrees with someone...
hmm.. and what is the reaction??? "you are a fool"
very intellectual... well thought out response. fact based??
back to the subject at hand....you have an incumbent president that has made a mess out of everything he has touched after "PROMISING" that he would fix everyting. he didnt have to promise that he would fix everything, but he did it to win the last election.
and the incumbent is running neck and neck with unfavorable rating in the 40's for 3 years with a democratic congress for 2 years.
Rod Carri
11:16am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Wow!! If Cicillini is re-elected, the voteres of RI show just how stupid they really are!
They're letting Cicillini scare them by tying Romney to Doherty. Gee, I thought the Dems felt Emperor Obama was a lock for four more years of distruction?
This is how their strategy works. Scare older voters with lies about Medicare and Social Security. They are counting on the elerly not to do any real research for themselves, and buy into the fear that the liberals are peddling.
What a disgrace, that we've seen such slugs as Chafee, Cicillini and Whitehouse as elceted officials.
jon paycheck
11:24am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
trivia questions-----
how many times during the debate will david ciccilini say "romney"?
and how many times will david ciccilini say that brendan doherty will cut social security and medicare benefits?
combined, i figure about 25 times total.
anthony sionni
11:40am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Cicilline is corrupt, Providence residents are paying higher property and car taxes because of cicilline,vote this guy out!
Mark St. Pierre
11:55am on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Cicillini will win because the Republican party don't give a rats a-- about the little guy. They weren't just given the title of party of the rich...THEY EARNED IT! By the way how many of you are drinking the Rush Limbaugh koolaid? Republicans want an aristocracy in this country, not a democracy.
Ron Restivo
12:03pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Doherty's problem is that he's a one trick pony. He only know how to lock people up (and kiss Don Carcieri's ass). No one is impressed with his grasp of issues. And it's actually rather alarming how vacant he is. Which makes it truly pathetic that he was the establishment pick of the state's GOP. In a year when anyone with a pulse should have beaten Cicilline, we're left with a stiff like Doherty. Oh yeah, and Dave Layman all but seals the Doherty campaign's fate. That guy hasn't a clue on how to connect with the electorate. He's just a washed up news guy looking to score a monthly retainer from anyone dumb enough to think he has something to offer. Sleep well Carcieri hacks...your golden boy turned out to be a dud.
Art West
12:04pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Mark,
I can't speak for all Republicans, but I can for fellow fiscal conservatives: We want freedom and opportunity for all. That goal cannot be accomplished with the current administration's and allies' drive for more and more dependency on government and unchecked spending.
Who exactly do you think is going to be paying off that $16 trillion in debt that the folks in Washington have run up?
Donna C
12:15pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
You can blame the Republicans all you want. We all know the voters in this state have battered wives syndrome and must be the most uninformed electorate in the country. They get hit, slapped and punched every day, then go back in on election day and vote the same people who hit them, right back into office. It's a mental illness...
Michael Napolitano
1:48pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
The fact of the matter is that current income tax system is already highly progressive. The top 10% wage earners pay 70% of the taxes. All one has to do is go look at the IRS tax tables. The ad campaign by Democrats is about the tax on capital gains. Of course that is never mentioned in the ads. So once one earns their salary and pays the higher rate of taxes, they are then taxed on a lower rate for what they receive if those funds are invested. Of course their is risk and they could lose it all and those funds invested in most cases were already taxed when earned.
David Cicilline has NOTHING to run on so he is trying to vilify Brendan Doherty because he is Republican. So I ask what have the Democrats done for RI? The Democrats control 90% of the General Assembly and all 4 seats in Washington yet RI is LAST for business and number 2 for unemployment. In fact the Democrats have controlled the General Assembly for over 70 years! They certainly have no bragging rights in this state! Educate yourself and all your friends and family members at rirankedlast.com Before our state goes down the tubes!
There is a world of difference between Brendan Doherty and David Cicilline. Cicilline has already shown he can't be trusted and will say anything to get elected. He has even lied about Doherty's stance on Medicaid and Social Security. Cicilline is lying to our parents and grandparents to SCARE them into voting for him. How low will he go! Have you had enough yet!
Gov- stench
1:49pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Go ahead 1st District, vote this liar back in. Stupid is what stupid does. Unbelievable.
Joyce Bryant
2:35pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Battered wife syndrome, that describes Rhode Island voters perfectly. Worse in business, 2nd highest in umeployment. 70 years of Democrat rule. Yup, battered wife syndrome it is.
Mark St. Pierre
3:49pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Yup, I'm sure if Republicans had been running the state for the past 70 years everything would be a heavenly bliss in RI. OOOOOOOOkay, go back to drinking your koolade or is it ice tea (party)?
Christopher Lee
6:35pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
@Mark St. Pierre. If in-charge of the state over the past 70 years, Republicans would be just as arrogant as the present day Democrats. Balance is needed in government. Ambition must be made to counteract ambition. (The Federalist No. 51.)
Christopher Lee
6:38pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
In terms of voters re-electing Cicilline, as comedian Ron White says, "You can't fix stupid."
Michael Trenn
9:27pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
All you high rise Seniors: Vote however you want on November 7!
Jonathan Flynn
10:02pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
"The top 10% wage earners pay 70% of the taxes." These are earnings, not wages. There is a fundamental difference. These taxpayers don't have large wages, they have capital gains. Smarten up.
Jonathan Flynn
10:06pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
Go to the new website, rigoprankedlast.com How much is in the coffers today, 30+ days out?
jon paycheck
10:44pm on Tuesday, October 02, 2012
"smarten up" another directive\degrading comment...from the left.
communication skills??
should this be taught to our young people today?
anthony sionni
12:03am on Wednesday, October 03, 2012
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) - A Target 12 review of payroll numbers for the City of Providence reveals Mayor David Cicilline was not only making more money than allowed by law, but also received a $5,300 bonus payment for "longevity" this past year.
City payroll records show the mayor received the payment for the first time in fiscal 2010, which ended June 30. Longevity payments are reserved for employees who have worked in city government for more than seven years. Cicilline took office in January 2003.
Cicilline is dealing with the political fallout after James Lombardi, the city’s internal auditor, sent a confidential memo to Councilman John Igliozzi of the finance committee that showed the mayor had received an extra $20,000 in pay since 2006.
Now, Target 12 has found the mayor also took home the $5,306.09 bonus last year on top of the extra base pay. The bonus money is based on four percent of the mayor's salary, including the extra pay he received since 2006.
In-Depth: Cicilline's $5K bonus far from biggest
Lombardi said the city ordinance caps the mayor's salary at $125,000. Lombardi's research showed the mayor took home $132,652 in 2010 without approval from the city's salary review board. On Wednesday, Cicilline pledged to give $20,000 back to the city when news of the overpayment was picked up by the media.
By Thursday, the reimbursement figure hade risen.
"Based on a review conducted by the director of Finance and the director of Administration, the Mayor wrote a check last night reimbursing the City for a total of $28,338," said Ciciline's Press Secretary Karen Southern. "That figure includes the $5,306 longevity payment."
Southern said the Internal Auditor's confidential memo had never been given to the Mayor's office before it was brought to the media.
Lombardi said he was unaware that the mayor received a longevity payment until Target 12 brought it to his attention. He said the bonus is allowed above and beyond the salary ordinance, but said it still may be a problem because of the limits the salary review commission puts on elected officials and directors.
"Council members aren't getting [longevity payments]," Lombardi said. "I don't know why one elected official would be getting it and the others are not."
The Mayor's Communications Director, Karen Watts, said Cicilline received the bonus on June 30th.
"He wasn't aware the longevity payment was made outside this review," Watts said. "The problem is these payments are automatic."
Igliozzi, chairman of the city's finance committee, called that "unbelievable."
"The mayor not only needs to return the money, but issue a formal apology to the people of Providence," Igliozzi said.
Watts called the extra pay a mistake by the finance department. But Lombardi said it is not up to clerks in the finance department to police payroll numbers.
"The payroll department takes numbers that are given to them; they have no authority nor do they have any understanding of what the ordinances say," Lombardi said. "The ultimate responsibility falls with looking at your paycheck every week and seeing it going up and not asking the question of why."
The longevity payment was negotiated into the union contract for municipal employees, but applies to other non-union workers in city government as well, according to Lombardi.
With just days to go before Tuesday's Democratic primary, Cicilline's salary revelations have become a political lightning rod for the mayor, who is vying to fill the congressional seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy.
Democratic rival Anthony Gemma has had the sharpest criticism in light of the development.
"He continually blames someone else," Gemma said. "If you're receiving a check, you know you received the rate and you've signed four tax returns, so you know, or should have known."
Former state Democratic Party Chairman Bill Lynch, also running in the congressional race, called the mayor "disconnected."
In a statement released Thursday Lynch said Cicilline's "inability to notice, over the course of four years, he was earning more than the salary limited by the law is simply unbelievable."
pearl fanch
7:41am on Wednesday, October 03, 2012
Cicilline leads nothing. Just because his people put together some half azzed poll, and they rig the numbers to show he's winning, golocal jumps all over it as if it's news.
Give me a break. Not even RIers are dumb enough to vote for this thief again.
the man belongs in jail, not office.
David Allen
8:11pm on Wednesday, October 03, 2012
Harrington is right. Rhode Island is stuffed with idiots, morons and pathetic sots.
The definition of "insanity" is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Why then, do Rhode Islanders expect change from pulling the "D-lever" over and over..? Rhode Islanders are dumb or insane.
Look at our General Assembly:
Alves (D)
Martineau (D)
Celona (D)
Montalbano (D)
Ruggerio (D)
Martineau (D)
We are insane to continue voting for the imabalance we currently suffer from. We need parity in RI and in Congress. Ciciline is not it...he voted with Pelosi 96.9 percent of the time...that is not balance.
David Allen
8:18pm on Wednesday, October 03, 2012
St. Pierre, you should be ashamed of yourself.
You are either as guilty as Cicilline of being a liar or just painfully uninformed. Look at the condition of our state. The bootom tier in everything. The Democratic majority in the General Assembly has been in power for 50 years and our state is in shambles. There is no discussion, no dialog, no parity...just Fox telling everyone what to do. Disgusting.
And as far as one trick pony goes...so is your Dominican traveling Congressman. He is a pathological LIAR.
David Allen
8:20pm on Wednesday, October 03, 2012
Bowie, I am an Independent and the contempt vote and all around it was nothing but angry Boehner politics. I agree, Ciciline is a little coward, but the whole episode was a political stunt...and subsequent findings bore that out.
Gov- stench
8:17am on Thursday, October 04, 2012
One thing Doherty can throw back in Ciclline's face is his vote on Obamacare - that would take $716 Billion dollars out of Medicare - that is a cut!. It's time Doherty start going around the high-rises and telling the seniors what their little Davey boy has been doing. It's time for Brenden to take off the gloves and do some bare knuckles on this clown.