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Average Providence Resident to Do Better Under Trumpcare than Obamacare Says New Study

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

 

Average Providence resident to do better under Trumpcare

Trumpcare is set to replace Obamacare and a new study says the average Providence resident is going to do better. 

According to a recent study completed by WalletHub, the average Providence resident will have a positive subsidy difference of $1,339 under Trumpcare compared to Obamacare. 

The study shows that the average Trumpcare tax subsidy for Providence is $4,000, while the average Obamacare subsidy is $2,661. WalletHub then does the math to show the subsidy difference is a gain of $1,339.  

“According to estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the recently proposed American Health Care Act — unofficially going by the names “Trumpcare” and “Ryancare” — would raise the average health-insurance premium for an individual policyholder by 15 to 20 percent just one or two years from now and lower federal subsidies. In contrast, the CBO projected, average Obamacare premiums would decrease 10 percent by 2026,” said WalletHub. 

Cities Most Affected 

According to the study, Yuma, Arizona is the city that will do the worst under Trumpcare. The study shows they will have a subsidy difference of -$7,815. 

The city that will do the best is Sterling Heights Michigan with a subsidy difference of $5,918. 

See the rankings in the map below 

Source: WalletHub

The Method 

To assess the impact of the proposed Affordable Health Care Act (AHCA) on American households, WalletHub’s analysts compared 457 U.S. cities of varying sizes based on the difference in premium tax subsidies that a joint-filing household would receive under the AHCA, or Trumpcare, and the Affordable Care Act (ACA), or Obamacare, which is currently in effect, in each city.

WalletHub organized their sample according to the following population-size guidelines:

  • Large City: More than 300,000 residents
  • Midsize City: 125,000 to 300,000 residents
  • Small City: 75,000 to 125,000 residents

 

In order to measure impact, WalletHub first determined the subsidies that a two-person, joint-filing household would receive under each health-care law.

For Obamacare subsidies, they referred to the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Health Insurance Marketplace Calculator. Because Obamacare subsidies are based on an individual’s age, income and location, WalletHub assumed for each city a two-person household earning the median income. They also assumed a two-person household, both members of median age, enrolled in Marketplace coverage and not using tobacco.

WalletHub then averaged the subsidies that each household would receive in the 10 most populated zip codes in each city.

Finally, WalletHub calculated the difference in subsidies from Trumpcare and Obamacare for each city and used the resulting differences to rank the cities. We attributed a rank of 1 to the city that registered the highest difference.

 

Related Slideshow: Trump’s Win - What Does it Mean for Rhode Island?

Prev Next

Jennifer Duffy

Cook Report

"We don't really know what a Trump presidency means for the nation, never mind the smallest state.  One of the unintended consequences of last night's results is that Sen. Jack Reed won't be chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.  Chalk that up as a loss for RI."

Prev Next

Pam Gencarella

Head of Ocean State Taxpayers' Association

"Trump’s win means that his signature issue, illegal immigration, could have a big impact on RI, hopefully reversing our course as a sanctuary state and saving the state taxpayer millions of dollars.  While we agree with his 'repeal and replace' Obamacare stance, we have no idea what that means to the RI debacle known as UHIP.  It is not a stretch to believe that federal funding for this kind of system will be off the table so, will RI be stuck with this massively expensive system that still doesn’t work and that is expected to cost another $124 million to fix?  

Trump's belief that there is significant fraud in the Food Stamp program and the policies that may come from that belief could have a negative impact on RI's local economy since there are businesses in certain cities that rely heavily on this program, fraud and all. On the upside, we may be able to ditch the UHIP program if there is significantly less need for processing welfare program requests (ie. Medicaid and food stamps) resulting from fewer illegal immigrants and less fraud.  While we are ambivalent about his touted child care policies, if enacted, it may force our legislators to revisit the ever growing state cost of subsidies in this area and possibly reduce the fraud and abuse in this system." 

Prev Next

Kay Israel

Professor at Rhode Island College

"With a Republican President and Congress, Rhode Island will probably be excluded from the 'fruits of victory."  

The congressional delegation will be able to vocally make their presence felt, but in the long term it's more symbolic than substantive.  

For Rhode Island it's a matter of holding on and waiting until '18 or '20 and a surge in Democratic influence."

Prev Next

Jennifer Lawless

Professor at American University

"The RI congressional delegation just became even less powerful than it was. With unified government, Trump doesn’t need to quell Democrats’ concerns or acquiesce because he’s worried about a Democratically-controlled Senate.

His appointments will reflect that. His executive orders will affect that. And the conservative policy agenda he puts forward will affect that."

Prev Next

Len Lardaro

Professor at University of Rhode Island

"Well there's a few things -- because there's not going to be gridlock, that's a big difference if it had been Hillary and a GOP Congress, in which nothing would got done. We'll at least get a half a billion in infrastructure that's going to pass which will have an impact.

I think you'll see there will be reduced reliance on government nationally -- and that's where we'll stick out like sore thumb. We've relied way too much on government -- and our government is highly inefficient and ineffective.  Maybe, just maybe, in this who cycle of things we might be forced to be small and more efficient for once.

A couple of other things -- interest rates jumped. The one to follow is the ten year government bond rate -- which is tied to mortgages. It went from 1.7% to 2.05% in one day. The point is -- if the ten year stays high, mortgage rates will start going higher -- and in the short time people will run to re-finance. 

That's the short term impact -- but then if rates stay hight, that will make mortgages more out of reach. And we just passed a bond issue to limit open space -- housing has limited upside here.
The next thing -- the Fed Reserve will go ahead with tightening next month. A strong dollar will hurt manufacturing. When the dollar is strong our exports become more expensive overseas. 

Our goods production sector -- manufacturing and construction -- in the near term will do a little better, but as time goes on will be more limited. But something you won't hear, is there are lags in fiscal policy, of six months to year. So we won't really see the effects until the third our fourth quarter of 2017, going into 2018."
 

Prev Next

Mike Stenhouse

RI Center for Freedon and Prosperity

"As the unbelievable turned into reality this morning, it struck me that the presidential election was not really all about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. It was about a fed-up people, revolting against a corrupt system - the "beast" - that relentlessly favors insiders. Hillary personified the beast, while Donald personified the slayer.

Sadly, based on election results in our state, Rhode Island's version of the beast lives on. I fear our political class has not learned the lessons from the Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump movements - and will continue with their government-centric, anti-family, anti-business status quo."

Prev Next

Kristina Contreras Fox

VP of Young Democrats of America

"A Trump Presidency means the validation of the ugliest part of America. In RI, as with the rest of the country, the hammer of his hatred will fall hardest on minority communities. Being a blue state doesn't make us immune from this danger.

Trump won over 35% (39.5) of the vote here! We need to look in the mirror, and not lie about what the reflection shows us. No more hiding underneath a blue blanket. I expect those who claim Democratic values to be true to those values. The gulf between words and actions have turned into fertile ground for Trump's message to grow here in RI. If you call yourself a Democrat, if you claim to stand in opposition to Trump, now is the time to prove it. Show up and fight back."
 

 
 

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