Avedisian Could Be Vulnerable in Race for Mayor of Warwick
Monday, July 07, 2014
Could incumbent Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian face a tough battle in 2014?
Avedisian, who's been at the city's top post since 2000, could face a significant challenge in the GOP primary from political newcomer Stacia Petri, who is running on a platform opposed to the city's car tax, and critical of its schools.
"I don't know anything about her, I haven't met her," said Avedisian, who was on the Warwick City Council from 1990 to 2000 before being elected Mayor, carrying all nine wards and winning every polling station in the state's second largest city since then. "I've had primary opponents before. We always have a lot of work to do, we've been successful in the past, and we anticipate that we will be successful again this year."
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLASTFormer Warwick City Councilman and School Committee Chairman Bob Cushman, who looked at a ten year snapshot of the "impact analysis of Warwick's budgetary policy," said that he believes, however, that the Mayor is vulnerable.
"Clearly anyone can see that Warwick has some serious issues regarding the annual increases in city spending and the city sinking deeper and deeper into debt," said Cushman. "With respect to Mayor Avedisian facing a serious challenge in a GOP primary, this could be the year where all the stars align for a competent challenger to defeat him."
Critical Look
Cushman pointed to two areas in Warwick he saw as being of concern for the current Mayor in this year's re-election bid.
"Warwick schools are crumbling and the Mayor breaking his promise to release the 2006, $25 million in bonds he approved to be paid for by the city to fix schools is becoming a big issue to parents," said Cushman. "Warwick schools now pay for all building improvements out of the educational budget. No other school system has to do this."
Cushman continued, "Business isn't happy with another tax increase. This on top of the fact that the 2015 budget contains a structural deficit in the millions because the mayor is tapping the rainy day fund. The issues are there to expose the Mayor. The question is can a candidate education the public that there is finally an alternative?"
Petri, who bills herself as a "Warwick homeowner, lifelong Rhode Islander, and small business owner", kicked off her campaign being highly critical the incumbent Mayor.
“I have witnessed taxpayers repeatedly express their concerns over the fiscal mismanagement of our city and the hundreds of millions of dollars in debt associated with employee legacy costs that is siphoning needed dollars from every other area of the budget. The Mayor can no longer play his shell game and simply dismiss the issue,” said Petri, in her initial campaign release. “Every budget year that passes has the taxpayers experiencing the detrimental consequences for this lack of leadership.”
Parsing Politics
In 2010, Governor Lincoln Chafee won the Rhode Island Governor's race by less than 9000 votes statewide -- and beat GOP opponent John Robitaille in Warwick by just over 2000 votes.
"Mayor Avedisian supporting Lincoln Chafee for Governor over the GOP endorsed candidate John Robitaille in 2010 has left a real sour taste in some Republican who feel the Mayor cost the GOP the governor's seat," said Cushman. "From what I know, there will be some repercussions over that and hidden support for other candidates is certain."
Whether that opposition could translate into a win, however, left sides split on the debate. Cushman thinks that the competition of other high-profile races could allow an opponent with a strong ground game to prevail in the GOP primary.
"With high profile races in the democrat party for Governor, Lt. Gov, and Treasurer, most independent voters who tend to vote Democrat will most likely vote in the democrat primaries. That will leave the field on Republican voters in the Warwick GOP mayoral race extremely small," said Cushman.
"A new candidate with limited resources in terms of cash and volunteers could mount an effective grass roots door to door campaign targeting these voter," Cushman continued. "For the first time ever people are noticing the urban decay in the city and they are mad. The Mayor heard a mouth full during the past budget hearing from voters upset over the pot holes, and in some cases dangerous conditions of Warwick roads."
GoLocal Mindsetter and political consultant Russ Moore pointed out the challenges inherent in mounting a winning campaign against the current Mayor, in light of higher profile races.
"Even if [Petri] does have the resources to mount a serious campaign (at least $200,000) it will still be hard to gain any traction thanks to all the attention that will be paid to the Governor and Providence Mayoral race. That fact will make it nearly impossible to surmount all of the name recognition Avedisian has thanks to being mayor for 15 years," said Moore.
"Warwick is in very bad financial shape, with unfunded healthcare liabilities exceeding $246 million dollars and serious pension liabilities as well. However, Warwick is very much like the thinnest kid at Fat Camp. When you line it up against communities like Providence, Woonsocket, West Warwick, Coventry, Pawtucket, etc., it really doesn't look that bad, and therefore doesn't attract as much attention."
Party Dynamics
"The Warwick GOP Party has been stronger in days gone by. In its most recent endorsement for governor, 22 votes were cast out of a possible 81 people. Each Ward Committee in Warwick is authorized to have 9 members and 5 alternate members," said former Warwick GOP committee members -- and Senate hopeful -- Ray McKay, who currently spearheads the Rhode Island Republican Assembly (RIRA). "So obviously the raw numbers point out that there is a structural issue within Warwick in building and sustaining any City GOP Committee momentum."
Avedisian said that he supports Cranston Mayor Allan Fung in the Rhode Island GOP gubernatorial primary. "I've supported Allan from early on, even before Block got into the race," said Avedisian.
While Fung hasn't made an announcement on an endorsement in the Warwick race, his camp said they expect to issue one shortly. "Mayor Fung will make an endorsement soon in the Warwick Mayor's race," said Rob Coupe with the Fung campaign.
Jeff Britt, spokesperson for GOP candidate Ken Bloc, said they haven't yet made a decision. "We have no plans to endorse in the Warwick primary at this time. But that can change," said Britt.
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